Oil prices reached in the early weeks of new highs, but with further direction to decide until I can’t. Maybe the traders dare to action today, when will be published data on reserves and production in the United States from the energy Ministry.
In the meantime, his inventory was presented by the American petroleum Institute (API). The data was mixed.
On the one hand, the total reserves decreased, but this decrease was less than expectations for 1.1 million barrels, against the forecast of 3.5 million barrels.
But Cushing inventories grew, although this growth was below expectations. Stocks of distillates and gasoline fell 1.9 million barrels and 2 million barrels respectively.
Initially, the market reacted to the published statistics of growth, but then the quotes turned around and went down. However, these strong fluctuations are difficult to call:
In any case the most interesting in the oil market will occur today, when its statistics will publish the US Department of energy. It can be absolutely any. Suffice it to recall that the chaos caused in the market portion of statistical data on reserves last week.
First, the company Genscape announced about growth of stocks, then the API also reported on the growth of stocks, but the Ministry of energy reported on reduction and provoked the present market rally.
Here’s how it looked:
Recall that on 11 may the energy information Administration, the U.S. reported that oil production in the US fell to 206 thousand barrels per day for six weeks.
The oil reserves in the US also fell by 3.41 million in one week, gasoline inventories decreased by 1,231 million barrels, distillate stocks – by 1,647 million barrels.
Thus, according to the IEA, began the annual summer increase in demand for fuel. Given that demand, the IEA estimates, will increase by 1.66 million barrels per day third quarter compared to the first quarter, the market imbalance will be almost gone.
Moreover, history tends to repeat itself, so the increasing demand can be more. In 2010, the last year of the last major cycle of oil prices, the IEA predicted an increase in demand by 1 million barrels. Actual demand growth amounted to 3.3 million barrels per day.
The erroneous forecast, as it turned out later, was due to the fact that the Agency’s experts did not take into account the impact of low fuel prices. It is possible that a similar mistake they made now.
This morning oil prices are under pressure. However, the reduction is still symbolic. A barrel of Brent oil loses about 0.3%, a barrel of WTI is cheaper by 0.25%.
The price of “black gold” are now close to maximum marks of the current year, but further movement is difficult to predict.
From a technical point of view, the price of Brent crude oil could reach $52 per barrel, then there may come a small correction.
