Oil is at new highs. In early trading Monday quotes are a mixture of Brent came close to the highest marks this year – $42,5 per barrel.
Before the long-awaited meeting of the countries-exporters remains less weeks, and the players seem to still believe in its success.
Nevertheless, the market is still doing extremely contradictory messages. On the one hand, in the United States again decreased the number of active drilling rigs, and production volume steadily decreases.
Oilfield services company Baker Hughes has published data on the number of active oil and gas rigs in North America. As of April 8, on the oil deposits of the United States 354 operates drilling units – 8 units less than the week before. This is the lowest rate for the U.S. oil sector since the beginning of November 2009
On the other hand, not only Iran, but also Iraq is actively increasing production. In March, the volume of production of “black gold” in this country has grown to 4,55 million barrels barrels per day and exports to 3.26 million barrels a day.
This fact can have a negative impact on the negotiations on April 17, especially as Saudi Arabia and Iran without not particularly want to freeze the volume of production, not to mention Iraq.
However, while all this does not interfere with the quotes grow.
Well, since the weather in the market set the professional speculators, it would be logical to look for news, and for the technical picture. The fact that local extrema are almost never overcome the first time, especially in the Asian session.
So, most likely, the main events will happen later in the afternoon, when trading join us traders. Well before the Doha meeting will still be enough reasons to play one way or side. Tuesday will be released data on inventories from the American petroleum Institute on Wednesday – are similar to data from the U.S. Department of energy, however Wednesday will be a known change of volume of production.
In addition, most likely, there will be various stuffing in the media, in which some anonymous sources will make a loud enough statement. Entertainment traders in any case it is not necessary.
Returning to the technical picture, we can say that there is every chance the rest of the week to reach $46 per barrel, but then, it seems, comes the corrective phase. It fits in the technical picture, and that the positive results of the meeting have long been built into the price.
The question is what really will be the end of the meeting, and how strong it can become correction.
Immediately reminded of last year when with the beginning of the year also saw a steady upward trend, but in summer, everything changed, and began a new phase of lower prices. Of course, the Russians again. I would not want, because it will immediately reflect on the dynamics of the ruble, and the budget just needs higher prices.
