Instability in the oil market threatens to drive Russia deeper into the abyss of the crisis. While our country celebrated Victory Day and watched the parade on red square, prices for crude oil described several somersaults on the background of the countries-exporters of “black gold”. Agreements between countries are no longer in effect, and on the international petroleum exchange prices were at the mercy of the whims of private market players.
On Tuesday the state oil company of Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco has announced its intention to increase in 2016-the year oil production at one of its main deposits by one third to one million barrels per day. In addition, she plans to organize a joint venture in Indonesia, USA, India, Vietnam, China and South Africa, but it also means the stimulation of production and, as a consequence, the decline in oil prices in the market.
The same strategy chose another oil producing country – Nigeria, which this year plans to increase average daily production of “black gold” to 2.3-2.5 million barrels. For comparison, last year Nigerians the day he received on the strength of 1.7 million barrels. In addition, the country is looking for ways to reduce the cost of production to $ 12 per barrel, to be able to compete with such “lucky” as the same as Saudi Arabia (she is a barrel of oil costs about $ 10) and Qatar (which cost altogether $ 8 per barrel).
In this scenario, the price of “black gold” at risk of falling below the current 44 per barrel and lowered the critical for Russia the mark of 40, then $ 35. And no conspiracy will not save: the head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin has directly said that OPEC actually transformed my existence as a single organization, and no longer defines the rules of the game and the prices on the oil market. “At the moment, a number of objective factors eliminates the possibility for any cartel to dictate its will on the market“, — said Sechin told reporters.
However, OPEC still has a chance to rehabilitate – and if at the meeting in June will somehow still make the decision to freeze production, which is still sabotaged disinterested in this turn of events, Saudi Arabia. Without it, Russia can only hope to stabilize the market at the expense of leaving it to sellers so-called “expensive” oil production which is now more expensive than the price of a barrel on the exchange.
And the price of “black gold”, meanwhile, then fall, then grow again, and all this for several hours. Dependence on statements of the experts and the miners have already almost straight. Saudi Arabia has plans to increase production of oil has “dipped”. Then from Canada came the news that the fires in Alberta near the oil Sands deposits has forced a number of companies in Canada to reduce production of “black gold” prices again “has grown up”. The net result was plus 3% per day. But this, unfortunately, means nothing in a global perspective.
