Oil has spent a week in the correction phase and came close to the point where the balance of power between “bulls” and “bears” can change dramatically.
So, over the past eight trading sessions of a barrel of Brent mix fell in price seven times. The formal reason for this was the various statements on the topic of freezing of oil production, but rather the reports that Saudi Arabia will not freeze the output, if you do not do Iran.
Actually this is just background information, which is skillfully used by big players for their own purposes, and it appears not by accident.
Sometimes, looking at the graph, we can safely assume that in a short time the news feeds will appear in messages or otherwise.
Well, once the price chart carries much more reliable information, and to draw the attention is on him.
After reaching the target level of $42,5 per barrel, the quotes gradually began to decline, and, as always, such a clever way that those who wish to play down a few times were knocked out of the market.
Anyway, the decline was about 12%. In recent days, it has already gathered momentum and is confident enough. However, the most interesting still ahead.
Day the price reaches the lower border of the trend, but will continue to be the most interesting.
If the channel is breached, will open the way to new lows and the chances of subsequent recovery will be quite a bit. Of course, for Russia this is the worst scenario.
There’s another alternative, when, reaching the lower border of the channel, prices are going up. In this embodiment, the movement may have a goal of $46 per barrel and even higher, but it will still work in the context of the uptrend.
As for fundamental data, it is worth noting that in the United States continues its steady decline in production and the number of operating drilling rigs. According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of energy, the production volumes in the U.S. declined to 9,022 million barrels per day, which is 360 thousand barrels less than the previous year.
Falls and the number of working drilling. Last week it was down to 362, and the reduction observed for 14 of 15 weeks.
Note also that this is the minimum mark since November 2009
Thus, the war against the Saudis shale sector in the US is gradually bearing fruit, but now it looks like we will see another war between Saudi Arabia and Iran – oil, of course.
