Head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that oil prices will rise slightly, and the forecasts that the Russian economy should focus not on them but on progress in structural reforms. The announcement was made at the International financial Congress in St. Petersburg.
Indeed, a direct link between successful structural reforms and economic growth says all the time, but stabilized if the oil market so that the situation there, despite situational volatility, we can assume a certain relative constant, and what can we expect from structural reforms in Russia?
This “Economy today” interview with economist Vladimir Demidovy.
“We are in a three-year period of low oil prices, which started at the end of 2014. and low they are from the point of view of ensuring the maintenance of production. Accordingly, the level of sustaining production is $ 70 per barrel.
And the average price for a fairly lengthy period will remain in the range of 50-55 dollars. And the growth can be expected no earlier than 2019, this will rise to 75 dollars. It’s just the economic cycle. Can be different throwing, due to the nature of the oil market, which overall is very speculative. By and large, we are now at that level, where will the next few years.
For Russia, this means that one should not expect large oil rents. As regards structural reforms, under them, everyone understands their own, and that their understanding and linked the main concerns. Judging by the options that are being discussed in the government, structural reforms are widely understood only as the reduction of the social sphere, and not as holding large-scale reforms in the financial sector, in the tax laws.
If you focus on raising the retirement age and reducing social benefits, then such reforms will do nothing for the economy as a whole. This development suggested Prokhorov in the framework of the “civic platform” a few years ago, and it is beneficial only to the oligarchs, of course, will lead to an increase in their profits, but not the fact that to economic growth.
Roughly speaking, this reform would allow officials to save face and cover their mistakes. Meanwhile, the economy needs is another. The focus should be on a thorough reform tax and financial system and public administration. But for the current government the main problem is that they own the system create and change something that will be extremely difficult.
Here speak the right words, but you need to understand the details. The things that Kudrin, if you read the Declaration, only support. But still fear that when it comes to concrete measures, it will increase the retirement age and reform of labour legislation”, – he commented.
We will remind that today oil climbed to 51 USD per barrel. Wednesday, June 29, Brent has risen just 3% and Texas crude fell by 4%. Presumably, this increase was caused by the message Energy Agency, States that crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 4.1 million barrels.
