The Iraqi military and Kurdish militias resumed the attack on the largest city of the IG. On Thursday they supported coalition headed by the USA will try to take some settlements around the city. Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq spoke about the problems of the largest operations against ISIS.
On Thursday, Iraqi special forces and Kurdish militiamen resumed suspended the offensive in Mosul, the largest city under the control of prohibited in Russia organizations “Islamic state” (IG). Now, with air support from the Western coalition and the artillery support of the US they try to dislodge insurgents from several villages in 20 km to the North and East of the two-millionth city, according to Reuters.
“We’re storming it every minute”
“The goal is to clear a number of the villages to retain control over strategic areas for the future of the environment LIH”, — quotes Agency of the representative of the Kurdish military command, announced a new round of surgery on Thursday.
Dozens of black SUVs elite counter-terrorist service mounted with machine guns heading in the direction of the small town Bartalla the main target of attack in the East, also handed over a Reuters reporter. According to him, over populated areas around Mosul are still hanging clouds of black smoke caused by burning oil. This tactic fighters use to hide from aerial reconnaissance.
In the North, the Kurdish Peshmerga was hit by machine-gun fire a few drones that came from the ISIS controlled territories to the village of Navarin. It’s unclear whether carrying drones, ranging in size from 1 to 2 m, the explosives or just intelligence, explained to Reuters the Kurdish military. According to them, there were cases when the Islamists used the drones with explosives.
About the beginning of the offensive in Mosul, the Iraqi government announced Monday. The authorities claim that the operation is developing faster than expected.
The 9th armored division of Iraq’s armed forces fighting in the district of Hamdan and laid siege to the Christian town of Karakosh, approximately 16 km South-East from the outskirts of Mosul. “We’re storming it every minute,” the Washington Post quoted the words of the division commander Lieutenant General Kassim al-Maliki.
The fight for Mosul is the largest and most complex operation against the “Islamic state”, says the American edition. Armed forces of ISIS are currently digging in the city, building barricades, mine all possible approaches to centers of resistance.
Despite existing and emerging issues, U.S. and Iraqi officials believe that the operation to take Mosul, we have already seen the first success. They stated that the fighters of the Kurdish militias and Iraq’s armed forces achieved initial goals. The storming of Mosul, according to them, represents a rare case of cooperation between the two, often warring, governments in Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of the semi-Autonomous Kurdish region.
Where will leave IG and how quickly
A successful assault on Mosul could be an important step in the process of further peaceful settlement in Iraq, but even victory in this city ultimately may result in a new phase of civil war in this country, writes in the American military-analytical edition of The National Interest Zalmay Khalilzad, who worked as the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan.
According to him, now is unclear whether the strengthening of ISIS in Mosul for a long defense or, conversely, intends to leave, to cut their losses and maintain effective armed struggle in the future. Instead of taking Mosul as its last Bastion in Iraq, the formation of the IG can relocate to Syria or, more likely, disperse in the vast desert Haseera between the cities of Mosul and Anbar, where there are all conditions.
The leadership of the IG understands that the assault on Mosul may lead not only to numerous victims among the civilian population, but it is very sensitive to defeat ISIS. This will mean for the Caliphate strong blow to the reputation. The redeployment of troops of the Islamists in Syria will add to the problems for Bashar al-Assad, and the dispersal of their forces in the desert areas of Iraq would mean that the fight against ISIS in that country will continue for a long time.
For the success of the coalition an important swiftness with which victory will be achieved, says Khalilzad. The speed of the operation will have a decisive influence on subsequent developments. If the attack turns into a long and exhausting positional battles and grinding both sides of manpower, the main actors on this stage, including Iran, Turkey, Kurdish and Shiite militia will probably try to use the events around Mosul are primarily for their own personal gain.
The war of all against IG or all against all
The Prime Minister of Iraq Haide al-Abadi hesitated on the question about the participation of the Shiite militia in the assault on Mosul. On the first day of the operation he promised that the Iraqi army and the state police are the only forces that will go down in Mosul. Iraqi Prime Minister planned that the Kurdish Peshmerga will be included in the Kurdish part of Mosul, and the Iranian-backed Shiite militia will operate in limited areas. He was instructed in particular to ensure the safety of routes of delivery of materiel to the front.
The militia has already been seen in crimes against Sunnis after the liberation of Fallujah. However, the Shia can and to bypass the restrictions imposed, warns Khalilzad. If you are logged in Mosul Shiite militias may exacerbate the situation in a broader scale. The Sunni-Shia conflict in Mosul may with the rapidity of the fire spread across Iraq and support the continued growth of extremism and terrorism.
Another important factor is the strained relations between Ankara and Baghdad on the issue of the presence of Turkish troops near Mosul, which continue to grow. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is determined to define a greater role for Turkey in the future of Mosul and if the disputes with Baghdad may at some point intervene in the assault of the city.
Turkey has interest in the protection of the Turkomans are Sunnis from the Shiite militias. The Turkish leader is concerned about the issue to its Sunni allies were suspended from the administration of Iraq after the defeat of ISIS. Ankara also fears the presence of the Peshmerga and the PKK in the region of Sinjar, between Mosul and the Syrian border. Turkish intervention on any of these causes may exacerbate the situation to the limit, lead to the reverse reaction of the Shiite militias and complicate any possible measures to stabilize the situation in the region.
On the other hand, tension remains in the relations between Baghdad and the Kurds. Although the Kurds and the Iraqi government cooperate in the fight against ISIS in Mosul, the subsequent conflict between the two parties may not be completely excluded. The Iraqi Kurds have so far abstained from declaring independence-only that they’ve become a priority task of the armed struggle with ISIS. They have significant differences with Baghdad on the status of Kirkuk and other territories under Kurdish control. After the storming of Mosul, Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, is likely to seek to establish a new relationship with the Iraqi government. We can go on independence or Confederation of Kurdistan. The lack of agreement between Baghdad and Erbil in this area will strengthen their struggle for the support of the Sunnis.
The government and humanitarian crisis
There is still disagreement on the questions of how should be organized the control of Mosul after the assault, says a former US Ambassador. In Baghdad, it is believed that the Governor of Mosul should become Nawfal Sultan al-Akub and the Council, who will lead the entire province Ninawa. It is not excluded that he will assist the representatives of the Central Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional leadership. The big question is whether this formula is adopted and supported by the population of the province of Nineveh. There is a problem and whether Kurdish or other minorities in Ninawa strive to become Autonomous communities and give them the freedom of choice between accession to the Kurdish region or stay as an autonomy within the province.
Looks like there is no serious plan about the restoration of Mosul after his release, says Khalilzad. The Obama administration has coordinated with international organizations certain actions, to provide at least the refugees are returning to Mosul after battles, but you need to be prepared for the resettlement of displaced civilians, who do not want to return to the city after the storm. These facts have already taken place in other towns, captured from ISIS. In addition, like the diplomat, given the highly stressed state of Finance of Iraq because of low oil prices, for US it is very important to help Baghdad develop a plan to restore the city.
The root causes of the civil war in Iraq is rooted in “sectarian” policies of the previous Iraqi government and the lack of measures for the division of power in the country. If Iraq will not solve these problems, the successors of the IG can recur, even if the group will be dispersed finally. The IG has arisen on the remains of “al-Qaeda in Iraq”, which was defeated in 2006-2009, due to failures in the governance of the country. This was mainly during the second term of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Many in the region believe that the Obama administration considers the liberation of Mosul as a check box that the US President wants to put on the map before the November elections in the USA. Sunni Arabs in particular, are afraid that the impatience of the Obama administration and its desire for quick victory will divert attention from more fundamental problems of power sharing in Iraq for the sake of living together of different faiths in one country.
And this might be difficult because you will need to make a lot of elaborate agreements on the division of power in the centre, federalism, Confederation, or decentralized among local communities. In the absence of such agreements, the conflict in Iraq will not only continue, but will intensify, says former U.S. Ambassador in Baghdad.
