If the Turkish troops leave Northern Iraq, this could lead to large-scale regional war, said the official Baghdad. The actions of Ankara, which seeks to inflict as much damage to the Kurdish military and political associations on the border with Iraq and Syria, causing more concern among countries in the region. The breakup of the USA and Russia on the Syrian track only increases these risks.
“We have repeatedly asked the Turkish side not to interfere in Iraqi Affairs, and I fear that the Turkish adventure can turn into a regional war,” said on 5 October, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. It sounded Iraqi policies on national television.
The reason for such a sharp statement was the decision of the Turkish Parliament to extend a mandate allowing Turkish troops to continue the operation in Syria and Iraq for another year.
Baghdad and Ankara have exchanged diplomatic notes and called the ambassadors of the opposite side for clarification.
The Kurds are no patrons
Ankara sent troops to Iraq in December of last year. Then, the Turkish military and armored vehicles entered the Northern province of Nineveh, adjacent to Iraqi Kurdistan, Autonomous from Baghdad. Ankara explained its actions by the preparation of the national groups fighting in Iraq with the terrorist “Islamic state”. However, according to the authorities of Iraq, Turkey has focused on ensuring the safe passage of smuggled oil and attacked the positions of the local Kurds.
Baghdad called the Turkish military presence as a “hostile action” and said the violation of sovereignty. This actual intervention responded and the League of Arab States, and even the United States, who called to respect the territorial integrity of Iraq.
During the attempted coup of 16 July this year Turkey withdrew its troops from Iraqi territory. However, on 20 July, Turkish aircraft, in the midst of the purges after the failed coup, once again launched a series of attacks on positions of the Kurdistan workers party (PKK) in Northern Iraq.
The same scenario Turkey at the end of August to the beginning of the operation “shield of the Euphrates” in Syria. Turkish troops invaded the district of Dzharablus under the cover of U.S. aircraft, explaining the maneuvers that the city needed to oust the militants. Subsequently, however, the Kurdish militant group and the Kurdish party “Democratic Union of Syria,” said that this is just an excuse. According to them, Turkey wants to put an end to the expansion of the zone of influence of the Kurds in Northern Syria and is trying to unite the two Kurdish enclaves, separated by the river Euphrates.
In late September, the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again urged the US to launch a joint assault on the Syrian Raqqa held by the IG. If Washington agrees, the Turkish army will go even deeper into the territory of Syria and will have the opportunity to fight with the Kurds there.
Ankara for many years, perceives the Kurds living in southern Turkey, as one of the major threats to its statehood. The PKK, which advocates the establishment of an Autonomous and unified Kurdistan on the territory of Turkey, Iraq and Syria, is considered a terrorist organization.
In 2015 Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke off a peace process with Kurdish militant groups and returned to the tactic of complete suppression of local separatism. This led to the fact that Kurdish fighters have crossed into Syria and Iraq.
Still Turkey had to limit Syrian and Iraqi campaign against the Kurds. The deterrent effect gave both the US and Russia are equally interested in Alliance with the Kurds in Syria.
Moscow has long tried to create a Kurdish delegation to participate in international peace talks on settlement of the Syrian conflict, relying on the loyalty. The United States supplied the Kurds with weapons, considering them a serious military force, quite independent from both the Islamic radicals and the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a definite ally of Moscow.
Ankara, in turn, tried not to defy the interests of Russia and the United States in the region, valuing relationships with both powers.
Now, when the United States and Russia on 3 October severed bilateral cooperation on Syria, the Kurds will lose patronage, and Ankara will try to use it.
“Of course, the disorder of Russia and the USA contributed to the escalation in Iraq and the actions of the Turkish army, is told close to the Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the political scientist, specialist on public relations of the Turkish media Alexander Kirpichev. — As tensions in Iraq may as the fire quickly shifted to Syria.”
The Silence Of Erdogan
Activation of Iraqi lines of Turkish campaign associated with the next attack on the city of Mosul occupied by the is militants.
Mosul is the main focus of the terrorist forces in Iraq. Capturing the cities in the summer of 2014, ISIS became known to the whole world. It was here in one of the mosques, the leader of the group Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed the establishment of the so-called “Caliphate”. Mosul is also known fact that in the city there are tombs of several prophets of the old Testament. Immediately after the seizure, the militants posted a video as they destroy the tomb of the prophet Jonah.
By the end of August, Iraqi government forces cleared insurgents from the area of Kayar to the South of Mosul and entrenched positions.
In October it is expected the decisive phase of the assault. Right now Baghdad needed more troops, and Iraqi Kurdistan can provide them.
Now the Iraqi government is negotiating with Massoud Barzani, President of Iraqi Kurdistan. With the support of the Peshmerga — the Kurdish militia — the armed forces of Iraq will increase the chances of successful completion. It is obvious that the capture “of the Iraqi capital IG” will give additional political points and Barzani personally and Iraqi Kurdistan in General.
Turkey cannot allow the registration of the Union. In addition to the Kurdish factor in the current Iraqi government controlled by the Shiites, who tend to Iran, the rival of Turkey in the region.
However, as told on condition of anonymity, a source familiar with the contents of the Syrian discussions in the foreign Ministry, while the Turkish operation in Iraq face substantial difficulties.
“The Iraqis now have no strength in order to repel the Turks. And of course, it is unfortunate that Turkey is on their territory. But Turkey is now in the army of loyalty issues. The Turks have just been a coup attempt. A third of the generals and a huge number of officers dismissed,” he says.
Russia at the moment is not going to interfere in the actions of Turkey against the Kurds, told the “Газете.Ru” another source associated with the Turkish direction of Russian diplomacy.
“There is information that Putin has made concessions on the Kurdish issue, but Erdogan on the issue of recognition of the Assad regime. Not yet faced the interests of Russia and Turkey in Syria, while there is no open confrontation between Kurdish forces and Turkish forces, Moscow will turn a blind eye to our intelligence on the Kurds, told the source. Parallel to Erdogan’s changing rhetoric towards Assad, whom he had required to shift”.
The source “Газеты.Ru” drew attention to the speech of the Turkish leader on 21 September at the UN General Assembly. For 30 minutes of speech Erdogan did not say a word about Assad. Today, in the conditions of aggravation of relations with the U.S. and calls by Washington to bomb positions of the Syrian forces, Erdogan’s silence can not but rejoice Damascus.
The evening of October 5, several hours after the strong declarations of Baghdad to Ankara, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart discussed “issues of the Syrian crisis” on the phone, reported the press service of the Kremlin.
