Russia will have several years to supply China with oil free worth $4-5 billion a year. To such conclusion the politician, economist Vladimir Milov, analyzing the recently published statements of Rosneft (for the II quarter of 2016) and “Gazprom” during the first quarter of 2016) in accordance with IFRS.
“The company (Rosneft), the two major bad trends — the decline of production at the largest mining companies and a sharp increase in the volume of free oil supplies to China at the expense of previously received (and eaten) payment, — he wrote in his blog. — With the growth of free exports to China to offset previously received payment really bad. If in I quarter of this year, they were made in the amount of 25 billion rubles in the II — already 37 billion (!). Only 62 billion roubles for six months. As I suspected, over time the amount of free oil supplies to China is only growing. In the us it is even higher: $1.8 billion (the conversion is made at the official rate of the CBR on the date of prepayment and not subject to revaluation at current exchange rate)”.
“We are now many years will supply Chinese oil free worth $4-5 billion a year”, — said Milov, adding that the money already given to lenders on account of the early purchases of the company’s management: “the acquisition of TNK-BP with a huge overpayment, the purchase of Yukos assets, etc.
As for oil production, then. according to Milov, “is also no good news.
“The second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2015 — a decline of 0.4%. All the major mining companies, with the exception of Yuganskneftegaz, showing a decline of production (in Yugansk for the second quarter of only plus 1.2 percent, which does not allow to show overall growth of production). Samotlorneftegaz is down 3.6%, Orenburgneft minus 9.8 per cent. Even the East Siberian enterprises first appeared in a minus: the facility — minus 2.7%, verhnechonskneftegaz only plus 0.6 percent against 8 percent growth a year ago, ” said the economist. — So all the negative trends that were noted in “Rosneft” earlier, just developing — will fall prey, the burden of Chinese debt (the need to return the free oil to offset previously eaten prepayments) only grows.”
According to Milov, the Chinese debt is the result of “thoughtless policy of the company for the purchase of assets. Now, the expert said, to get out of debt “Rosneft” tries with the aid of recruited China’s $35 billion payment.
“But the free cheese is only in a mousetrap for advance have to pay more and more widespread free supplies of oil,” he added.
Commenting on the statements of “Gazprom”, Milov said that in the first quarter of 2016, the company has more than half fell operating profit according to IFRS — 459 to 302 billion rubles.
“Even though revenue rose slightly. The reason — conformable to the increase in operating expenses. If you look on the inside of the dynamics of operating expenses, the two most prominent articles are: rising costs of labour more than 17%, from 145 to 170 billion rubles. Notice, the nominal accrued wages in the whole economy in the I quarter increased by 7.8%. But gas on myself did not mind — in spite of the decline of Gazprom in the first quarter by 3%. The dynamics of labor productivity do the math — this is how our economy and eats resources, ” wrote Milov. — One of the largest article of expenditure growth is “Purchased gas and oil” (from 207 right up to 346 billion rubles). What’s in there? The report of “Gazprom” explains this explosive growth with the mysterious phrase: “This increase is due to completion of the transaction on the exchange of assets between JSC ‘Gazprom’ and ‘Wintershall holding GmbH’, which the Group obtained control over the organizations ‘and G Beteiligungs-GMBKH I Ko. KG’ and ‘vieh GMBKH I Ko. KG‘ and their subsidiaries involved in the sale and storage of gas.“ What does it mean? It means that “Gazprom” has received control over European companies for the retail sales and storage of gas, and now for their needs is forced to buy gas, which reduces its profit.”
Milov also pointed to the absence in the report effective stavkirke gas.
“However, it is easy to calculate by dividing the total amount of severance tax paid on the volume produced in the first quarter of gas. Total received — $18 per thousand cubic meters of gas produced. With an average export gas price to Europe of $187,5 per thousand cubic meters for countries of the former USSR — $156,7 for Russian consumers — $51,7, production taxes Gazprom pays only $ 18. For comparison, Rosneft in the first half of this year paid severance tax on the average $73 per tonne of oil produced. But the costs of labor and purchase of gas for European consumers. That’s where the money for the pension system should be taken, not poor small business to milk” — summed up the mil.
