Russia has deployed in the Kaliningrad region of tactical missile complex “Iskander”, which were brought there on the civilian vessel in the framework of the exercise.
In this regard, there were reports that the maximum range of ballistic missiles of this complex is up to 700, not 500 miles, as previously thought, and thus indirectly confirmed, in particular, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Lithuania Linas Linkevičius (Linas Linkevičius), pointing to a possible violation of international treaties. It drew the attention of the expert of the Polish Institute of international Affairs Jacek of Durnalar (Jacek Durkalec). Formally, a maximum range of ballistic missiles, according to the Contract on liquidation of rockets of average and small range, is the distance at which it was tested, and winged — the distance that it can overcome the standard flight mode. It doesn’t change the fact that the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range nuclear forces (INF) was aimed at the elimination of ballistic missiles with radius of action from 500 to 5500 km, and development of tactical missiles with a range of more than 500 km of this installation is contrary.
The Treaty on the elimination of intermediate and short range, which was signed in 1987, the United States and Russia, prohibits, inter alia, produce, test and deploy ballistic or cruise missiles, land-based missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. In 2014, the us administration announced that Moscow violates the contract, because it is involved in the development of cruise missiles. In all likelihood, this version of the missile system “Caliber-NK”, which can be placed on the “Iskander” in modification of “Iskander-K”.
This missile system gives you the ability to hit targets lying not only in East-Central Europe, but also in the West of the continent. The deployment of such missiles on offshore platforms the contract does not violate, but on land — already Yes. Now it turns out that the Treaty on the elimination of the INF Treaty was violated not only by introducing cruise missiles to “Iskander” systems, but also ballistic missiles. The second are dangerous, because they can achieve the goal in just a few minutes. Besides ballistic missile complex “Iskander-M” is extremely difficult to bring down, this can be done only with the use of anti-missile systems with specific parameters. For comparison, cruise missiles, which are used in the complex “Iskander-K”, presumably moving with subsonic speed (a flight over a distance exceeding 500 km, is thus at least several tens of minutes). Shoot them down is possible, in particular, with missiles air-air, of course, if equipped fighters will have time to detect the target (e.g., when it will indicate the aircraft system of radio-location and guidance). If we assume that a ballistic missile complex “Iskander” has a range of 700 km, in a zone of defeat will be the whole territory of Poland as well, e.g., Berlin or the Czech air base in Caslav. So, to prevent East-Central Europe, NATO forces, Russia can more actively start to use not only winged, but also ballistic missiles. It should be recalled that a cruise missile to intercept too easy, especially when they started with sushi and move with bending of the relief.
To prevent the use of missile systems, NATO will have to take costly actions on many fronts, and it will require a lot of time. It’s not just about defense but also about disguise, consolidation and dispersion of infrastructure (for example, the creation of aerodrome road sections) or even about creating your own offensive systems. It should not be forgotten that if the potential of the NATO countries in the field of cruise missiles, sea-and land-based missiles (JASSM, LRASM, Storm Shadow/Scalp EG) developed all the time, that tactical ballistic missiles have been used only to a limited extent, primarily by Americans (TACMS/. with a range of up to 300 km). The range of the missile complex LRPF, which will go into service in the next decade, will be limited to about 500 km due to the requirements of the contract. In both types of missiles are used only conventional warheads. Meanwhile, given the Russian military doctrine, we can assume that both cruise and ballistic missile complex “Iskander” can carry nuclear warheads.
A hypothetical increase in the range of the missiles used in the complexes “Iskander”, will mean that in the event of defensive operations a few anti-missile complexes will be dispersed over a wider area, and this will make them vulnerable, particularly to strike from several directions. In addition, the danger will threaten the Western countries, which formerly seemed secure, and it give the enemy an opportunity to increase military pressure. A big part of US bases in Western Germany, apparently, will remain out of range “Iskander-M”, but this cannot be said about their locations in Poland.
At the same time a potential US withdrawal from the Treaty on the elimination of INF (on the background of the fact that Russia violates it) can occur as verbal information, and the actual response (for example, it can start to develop a system similar to the Soviet RSD-10, that is, with a range of 5000 km and more). Thus, to give a balanced response to the threat from Russia will become more difficult. The development of the defense system is necessary, but requires a large investment. Emphasis should be placed on the integration of systems (different “layers”: the rocket of small radius of action should be capable of intercepting cruise missiles), as well as on capacity building, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. This will require difficult political decisions, and perseverance.
In the current situation we found ourselves because to 2014 Western countries he misjudged the intentions of Russia, and also led to structural and financial reductions, particularly in the field of missile defense, including integrated systems. Now we need a comprehensive response in the military (development possibilities that will different ways to limit the effect of complexes “Iskander” and, more broadly, the Russian projection of military force in the region), and in the political field. The situation on the eve of elections in the United States and Germany in conjunction with the migration crisis, and the growing popularity of radical political forces doing NATO countries vulnerable to blackmail Russia. In addition, policies must name the Russian nuclear potential threats for Europe and to take appropriate steps to contain it. The implementation of these steps in life will take much time and is expensive, however it is caused, as mentioned above, and perennial deficiencies in that area. So Russia’s violation of the Treaty on the elimination of RIAC will continue to be a serious source of danger for the whole continent, and especially for our region.
