North Korean ballistic missile submarines (SLBM) can be armed with one to three years. Subject to successful trials in the sea of Japan a week ago, they will be able to reach US territory. On 30 August, said the influential Seoul newspaper “tone of Ilbo” referring to represented in Parliament, South Korea’s Ministry of national defense.
We will remind, on August 24, the DPRK conducted a successful SLBM test: the missile was launched near the port city of yuktae-Dong in the province of hamkyung province and flying 500 km and fell into the sea of Japan in the area of identification of air defense of Japan.
After that, South Korean President Park Geun-Hye stressed that the recent successful implementation of the DPRK’s test of a ballistic missile from a submarine have created an even greater threat to the security of South Korea. 29 August, a group of 23 lawmakers from the ruling in South Korea party “Senorita” urged to consider the possibility of hosting nuclear submarines, to counter the DPRK.
— While there is no solution, but because it says a lot about this need, the Ministry of defence will consider the matter, stated in Parliament by the Minister of defense of South Korea Han Min GU.
How far in fact has moved Pyongyang of ballistic missiles and equipping them with nuclear warheads?
Successful tests of solid-fuel ballistic missile of sea basing is a double breakthrough for the North Korean missile program, says a leading researcher at the Institute for Far Eastern studies, Vasily Kashin.
— The main thing is not what it could make the missile submarine, although it speaks to their level of science and technology, and that the North Koreans appears solid fuel medium-range missile.
“SP”: — It is a threat to America?
— Judging by what we know of its exterior dimensions, the ability to reach US territory from areas close to the DPRK, of course, can not speak. Most likely, its range — in the range of three thousand kilometers. Probably, the South Koreans mean that the DPRK may attempt to send a boat with a missile close to the us coast, but this also seems unlikely, because the North Korean shipbuilding technology is quite backward. That is to ensure the safety of such boats, they are unlikely.
“SP”: — Which in this case trumps appear in Pyongyang?
In my view, the main consequence of the North Korean nuclear program will be the deployment on the basis of achievements made a significant amount of land solid fuel medium-range missiles. Here we can recall the history of the Chinese 70 years — to create the first missiles JL-1 submarine that has been deployed in limited numbers on a single experimental missile submarine. However, the main result was that on their basis there was created a large family of medium-range missiles, the DF-21, which today continues to evolve.
In the DPRK, apparently, will go the same way. Missile boats are out there, sooner or later will bring to mind, they will remain in the fleet in a single number to demonstrate the technology, but a ground version of the missile will be made very widely, especially as it will give a new advantage. Those missiles that they have, needs to prepare for the start of a very long time — probably up to a half hour or even longer. During this time they are vulnerable. And there will be weapons that can strike within 15-20 minutes after receiving the command. Now that South Korea and afraid.
And here it is necessary to draw attention to one point. Still weapons of this class — solid-propellant missiles with such range — could produce only the permanent members of the UN security Council and India. From Pakistani and Iranian solid fuel rockets were in a more immature state. And here, cornered and not bound by the limitations of North Korea will launch, which she will easily be able to start trading. Of course, a ban on the export of missiles and missile technology from North Korea exists, and in this case … But if the export of the missiles will likely stop the transfer of missile technology may well take place, which is quite serious. In my opinion, largely technology, sea launch and sea-based missiles in the DPRK are developing with the prospect of a sale. Because of North Korea, it made sense to do immediately land a ballistic missile, which could be to hide and make nigh invulnerable. Still, it is necessary to consider that the Navy of the DPRK is too big technological gap with the navies of Japan and South Korea, and the boat will be difficult to protect in the event of a conflict.
“SP”: — In your opinion, North Korea has managed to create a warhead for a ballistic missile?
The North Koreans declare that they tested a thermonuclear charge, but they no faith there. All the explosions were extremely thin, so more likely that they have only atomic charges with the capacity of 10-20 kilotons. But it’s still a terrible thing in combat. With regard to warheads for ballistic missiles, for this reason there are different opinions, but no proof. But I always cite the example of the history of the Chinese nuclear missile program, which was implemented in the 60-70-ies. China then was quite a poor country, but he only needed four trials in order to create a nuclear warhead for a ballistic missile, and the fourth test was a launch of a ballistic missile YABCH, which passed quickly. So I see no reason to assert that the modern North Korea cannot be a nuclear warhead.
North Korean diesel submarine class Sinp’o has two launchers, according to its characteristics it is comparable with our first diesel-electric submarines, based on its technology from Yugoslavia, says leading researcher of the Institute of USA and Canada studies, the consultant commander of the strategic Missile forces, formerly chief of staff of the strategic missile forces, Colonel-General Viktor Esin. — The recent successful launch of an SLBM, which the North Koreans gave the name “Bukkeukseong-1”, the South Koreans — “Polaris 1” and the Pentagon — the symbol KN-11 suggests that within a few years the North Koreans can take it on Board. The first missile came from the water, was 500 km and splashed down, not destroyed in flight. The approximate range of the missile — 3200 km, payload — 650 kg.
“SP”: — what do you think North Korea has created a nuclear WARHEAD?
— I doubt it. There are committed to it, but has reliable data, excluding the bluff on the part of Kim Jong-UN, no. All the missiles currently in the Arsenal of the North Korean ground missile units, equipped with warheads with conventional warheads of two types: high-explosive and cluster. Potentially, medium-range ballistic missiles “Nodong-1” could be a carrier of a nuclear WARHEAD, but the North Koreans are unable to do it, even though the payload of the rocket is 1000 kg. But!
While the sea launch system will undergo further tests, SLBMs can indeed obtain nuclear part of the head. Most likely, the Koreans will hold a few more tests in order to obtain a compact warhead. But, I repeat, this is not the Intercontinental missile and its range will not allow to attack the United States. Just South Korea constantly exaggerates the capabilities of its neighbor, and this is blackmailing America. Of course, theoretically, it could come closer to America, but practically it is difficult to implement, considering how in Japan deployed the surveillance of the territory of the DPRK, including surface and underwater movement.
— If to speak about the underwater component of the North Korean nuclear forces, while we are talking about what subs successfully launch ballistic missiles that certainly speaks to the fundamental health of the system, – said the expert on military technology Vladimir Khrustalev. But even if next year will be lowered to the submarine, which from time to time will be able to go to sea with a missile on Board, it will be still quite nominal weapon.
Judging by deployed active construction in the shipyards of yuktae-Dong, the local shipbuilding industry is preparing for the construction of a series much larger than the current, submarines, capable of carrying a couple of BR on Board. But it will not happen tomorrow. Any system will become a weapon, she needed some time not only for testing but for testing. However, in the coming years, the possible launching of several such submarines, and they are optional — the development of Soviet technology, but rather — “work based on” the projects of other nuclear powers. Their main function is strengthening the psychological component of the nuclear deterrence of the state, which can be described as “credibility through increasing opportunities.” Plus the prestige.
But in General, it is important that Pyongyang now has at its disposal a solid-fuel ballistic missile of average range. In the future sea technologies can get land development: terrestrial version of “the Polar Star — 1” — this is the main fear of opponents of the DPRK. No problems with storage (compared to liquid rockets), small time prelaunch, small size, range of over 1000 km is a radically different level of rocket forces of the DPRK, a kind of “North Korean “Pershing””. And I wouldn’t say that North Korea now is focusing on the marine component of the nuclear forces. This year, the DPRK conducted a series of tests liquid ballistic missiles of medium-range “And 10”. And there is reason to believe that the DPRK creates a multi-component missile Arsenal of deterrence.
“SP”: — not Specified in the report prospects of a U.S. attack such missiles with non-nuclear submarines is a bluff South Korea or reality?
— In the best case, will reach Hawaii or GUAM, but most of all, the goal is for them to facilities in South Korea and Japan. Especially for large distances in the DPRK is developing a large ground-based multistage missiles. Since 2012 parades demonstrates some large multi-stage missiles, received in Western sources the designation KN-08 & KN-14. They have not yet been tested, but the rocket “And 10” for the first time at the parade showed in 2010, and flew it only in 2016. As for nuclear warheads to BR — hard to say, but I think they are. Reliability, power, performance properties — about it nobody knows anything. But even according to published DPRK materials (including where Kim Jong-UN inspects the layout of the nuclear charge), something they have already created. Still, the country has already held four nuclear tests…
