Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now trying to find a way out of the trap, which he himself organized. A choice that you need to do in any situation can turn fatal for the Erdogan consequences. Let’s move on to the specifics.
The desire to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for Erdogan was merely a tool in the attempt to recreate some semblance of the Ottoman Empire, becoming for the Sunni world into a kind of “Hezbollah” in the world of Shiite. And that is why the Erdogan regime for a long time flirted with Islamic radicals, giving them the opportunity to make a break from the war in Syria on Turkish territory, opened up lanes to buy them (of course at dumping price) of oil and to supply them with arms and manpower.
And now the circumstances are such that a direct military confrontation with Moscow to Ankara turns into a deadly threat. From Turkey want to compromise, which quite reasonably requires Russia. And the key point here is the cessation of assistance to the rebels in Aleppo from the Turkish authorities.
Given the fact that the Russian side is able to adequately assess the situation, maneuver to a false reverence Ankara no: a simulation of the “cessation of aid to terrorists” isn’t fooling anyone — you need only real action. For Moscow, the issue price is too high to make concessions: if not to block foreign aid to militants in Aleppo, all efforts to encircle the city and try to tell the fighters on the futility of defense would lose meaning. And Recep Erdogan delivered one invariable condition: the corridor to Aleppo from Turkey should be completely blocked. The discussion is closed.
The Turkish President can easily surrendered their former Islamic allies, but this is impossible: “fed” by his regime forces radicals too comfortably settled in Turkey and too well built here their network. Yes and smothered secular society freed radicals for many niches. To produce them in Syria? What will they do then? They have — anger, weapon has its own mesh, they are safe places of Turkey. And they at one point will understand and will open a front against the “traitor Erdogan”. Kurdish attacks seem a parody on that show these guys.
But there is a sequel. For anybody not a secret that corridor to Turkey and back gave is not for everyone, but for those who are financed from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. And these countries for such an attack Erdogan will invariably give the answer. But how can you deny “the request of Moscow”, when Ankara from the goodwill of Moscow became dependent as never before?
Erdogan is so overworked that has put himself in a fatal trap. Output without the enormous losses he could find, and just do nothing — a very poor choice.
Now the “Hizmet”, Russia, Islamic radicals, Kurds, the key countries of the Arab world and even the United States — they are all quite capable in unison to act against Erdogan. Rather, someone has already started, and someone may “close the bag”. Allies there can be situational, and those Erdogan has to trust they will not. They just can not put on him his axe if the Recep voluntarily perlage under another axe.
The situation of Aleppo is forcing Russia to look for operational solutions. To think and to waste time Erdogan will not allow it. And now it remains to be seen what will end the Turkish President, for his game called “trying to be smarter than everyone else, which he so wittily and pointedly started more recently.
The Gayaz Validi, specially for Colossal
