Investment “daughter” of “Sberbank” Sberbank CIB has prepared a forecast for oil prices and the ruble exchange rate under different scenarios of negotiations on the freezing of oil production. The forecast data leads to RBC.
April 17 in the capital of Qatar Doha will host talks between OPEC and Russia for the freezing of oil production.
Sberbank CIB considers four scenarios in which the negotiation will go:
– “baseline scenario” — the probability is estimated at 35% — implies an agreement to freeze production without Iran’s participation. In this case, the barrel Brent will cost $ 45, a dollar and 65 rubles;
– “a pleasant surprise” (probability 30%): an agreement to freeze with the gradual participation of Iran. In this case, the oil will cost 45 to 47 dollars per barrel, and the dollar is 64 to 65 rubles;
– “miserable failure” (probability 20%): it is expected that the agreement on freezing of not taken, the oil will be 30-35 dollars per barrel, and the dollar is at 70-75 rubles;
– “huge success” (probability 15%): participation and Iran’s agreement to freeze production. In this case, the oil will rise up to 47 to 50 dollars per barrel, and the dollar will cost 65 rubles, in the long run it can be cheaper to 62-63 rubles.
