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IMF: low oil prices gave rise to unexpected risks

МВФ: низкие цены на нефть породили неожиданные риски

Persistently low oil prices have not brought the economic benefits that are expected from them, but gave rise to an unexpected new risks. This warning chief economist of the International monetary Fund (IMF) Maurice Obstfeld and two specialists — Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Slaves of Areski.

According to them, a detailed analysis of the reasons for this situation will be given in the new forecast-analytical report of the Fund, which will be distributed in April at the spring session of the governing bodies of the IMF and the world Bank, reports TASS.

“Oil prices remain stubbornly low is much more than a year and a half, but expected by many “impulse” to the development of the world economy have still not materialized — indicates co-authors. — We argue that, paradoxically, the global benefits from lower prices, most likely, will appear only after the prices will rise, and the developed economy made more progress in overcoming the current situation with low interest rates”.

According to experts, since June 2014, oil prices in dollar terms decreased by approximately 65% (about $70), and in national currencies, “even with a 20 percent rise in the dollar over this period,” on average more than $60, but “growth is increasingly decreased in a wide range of countries”. “It surprised many observers, including us here at the IMF, said economists. — Prior to this we believed that the fall of oil prices is generally positive for the global economy. Clearly, it harms exporters, but should yield more than adequate compensation to importers”.

“Persistently low oil prices complicate the conduct of monetary policy and could create the risk of further spikes in inflation expectations, indicate experts. — In fact, the current episode with historically low oil prices may provide the impetus for a number of different failures, including corporate and sovereign defaults. These failures can affect financial markets, already nervous. The possibility of a backlash makes it especially urgent that the demand by the international community — as well as a number of structural and financial reforms in specific countries”.

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