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Illegal oil left on the side

Нелегальная нефть ушла на сторону

Terrorist group ISIS (organization banned in Russia) continues to receive income from illegal oil trade, but, according to experts, in recent years, the business began to “intercept” other participants of the civil war in Syria. According to expert estimates, ISIS now sells about three times less oil than last summer. However, total illegal shipments still can be up to 400 thousand barrels per day, which affects oil prices.

Despite the declared fight against terrorism, Turkey continues to receive oil from Syria. This is, in particular, has once again stated the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov during a meeting with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Illegal trade is mainly used part of the Syrian-Turkish border, which is located between the two Kurdish enclaves in the North of the country controlled by Pro-Turkish militants. The main incentive for the Turkish side — the low price at which it comes the black gold. Turkey buys “yelovsky” oil at $10-13 a barrel when the market price is around $40. However, during the last months of active hostilities volumes purchased from ISIS oil is noticeably “shrunk”.

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According to experts, deliveries could be reduced by approximately three times, from 200 thousand to 60 thousand barrels per day due to the fact that controlled by the militants territory had seriously decreased.

– “Golden age” of oil ISIL is over, — says the expert of the PIR Center political analyst Dmitry Evstafiev. — If in August–September last year, ISIL was selling, according to various estimates, up to 200 thousand barrels of oil per day (though met and numbers to 370 thousand barrels, but they are unrealistic), now, first, the terrorists lost some oil fields (e.g. in Iraq and in Deir ezzor and Palmyra in the area of the intersection), and secondly, transport routes are largely closed and are under fire control forces opposing ISIL.

According to him, 60 million barrels is the amount that LIH is still guaranteed to get in four oil fields in Northern Iraq. The access pipeline system for now ISIL is also difficult, you have to use mostly vehicles, which imposes serious limitations.

However, this does not mean that reduced themselves illegal shipment of oil from the region to the world market.

— Volume of illegal oil supply from the region, which was estimated at 400 thousand barrels per day, decreased a maximum of 25%, — says Dmitry Evstafiev. — Today, ISIS is not the only and probably not the largest seller of illegal oil in the region. Until recently it was moderate opposition in Syria. Shares are allocated depending on the state of Affairs on the battlefield.

Even in the complete defeat of ISIL, he said, supply will continue. Only the suppliers would change. But changing suppliers will not remove any risks of destabilization of the oil market nor the aspect of occurrence around these supplies various adverse political processes.

— As 250-300 thousand barrels of oil a day (with regular delivery) is able to influence the world market, — warns Dmitry Evstafiev.

For comparison, a recent upward trend in the market was caused by production decline in the USA initially on 450 thousand barrels a day. OPEC is discussing the total reduction in production (not exports, but only production 500 thousand barrels per day), and it also has a significant impact on the market.

According to Dmitry Evstafiev, it is important and the appearance on the market of even small but regular amounts of cheap oil (at an average price of $38 per barrel, oil may sell for $10-14). This could have a long-term bearish impact on the market, especially considering the seasonal factor. For example, in winter, when the demand for fuel lower conversions (from oil of poor quality) is growing. “Syrian-Iraq” semi-legal “gray” oil is a very valuable manipulative element.

In Europe, where largely out illegal oil, buyers are usually well aware of where she is (this is easily determined by chemical composition). That is, the Europeans are constantly buying illegal oil and don’t see anything in this zazornogo.

— By the way, including why Europe is trying not to quarrel with Erdogan: it these oil threads at least orders — indicates the analyst.

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