The oil market is trying to recover from another failure. The reason for optimism was based on data on stocks from the American petroleum Institute, which recorded a reduction of stocks of oil and, most importantly, gasoline.
Total commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.34 million barrels, stocks at the hub in Cushing also fell by 1.3 million barrels, but gasoline inventories fell by 450 thousand barrels.
Against this background, oil futures won back the part of the fall, and now a barrel of Brent costs about $42.
Well, yesterday during the trading session the price of “black gold” first rose to $43, and with the opening of U.S. session has left in a deep minus, having fallen to around $41 per barrel. .
Analysts point to seasonal factors, since the second half of the summer has traditionally seen a drop in demand, primarily from China, where many refineries are closed for repairs.
In addition, just recently, Saudi Arabia announced record discounts for Asian market – the largest consumer of “black gold”.
However, many experts believe that because of the weakness of the us dollar a further fall seems unlikely. The us dollar index a basket of major currencies has been declining for several sessions in a row. This contributes to change expectations about the future policy of the fed. After the release of extremely weak US GDP investors have lost faith in the rate increase.
Yes, while a falling dollar does not constrain the fall in oil prices, but the correlation of these assets has a certain lag. Just look, for example, the dynamics of the dollar index in may. Even then it started to rise, but oil prices still continued the upward movement, and then everything fell into place.
Chief commodity strategist at Bank of America Merill Lynch and does believe that the price of $40 is an excellent buying opportunity. To verify this assumption can be today: in the centre of attention of market participants will have official statistics on reserves and production from the US Department of energy. These data will be released at half past five in Moscow, they will define the mood of the market.
