The fact prepared and nearly successful coup speaks volumes. Military under Erdogan, under the supervision of intelligence services, was the first to reach the action.
By eight in the morning on 16 July military coup attempt in Turkey, which began at 22:00 on the day before almost failed. Most of the army, police and intelligence services remained loyal to Erdogan, and the rebel military began to surrender.
However, it should be noted that the coup was well prepared and was carried out competently and consistently. By one o’clock on 16 July the rebels managed to take control of virtually all strategic facilities in Ankara and Istanbul, including state television. They initially demonstrated the seriousness of his intentions, undeterred by the use of weapons, including aircraft. On the side of the coup was the leadership of the General staff, which is important both from the point of view of command and control, and considering the Turkish political tradition, until recently, at the constitutional level to recognize that the military right to intervene in the political process.
The only serious miscalculation of the rebellion was the fact that the organizers of the coup failed to isolate, liquidate or be forced to leave the country of Erdogan and government leaders. As the result of legitimate government succeeded with the help of loyal troops and their civilian supporters to turn the tide and in the morning and, despite the ongoing skirmishes in Ankara and Istanbul, take a revolution from the stage of nearly successful to the stage of failure.
That the chances of a coup are estimated as vanishingly small, evidenced by the behavior of the state Department. Night, during a news conference after talks in Moscow, Kerry declined to comment on the situation in Turkey, citing a lack of information. This morning the state Department and the White house has already condemned the rebels and supported Erdogan.
However, I would say that Turkey’s and Erdogan not only thing isn’t done, but perhaps not even begun. The fact well-prepared and nearly successful coup speaks volumes. The military, during the reign of Erdogan under the watchful eye of the security services, was the first to bring the matter to a practical performance. It was headed by the General staff – not the generals, who personally picked and appointed Erdogan after repeated cleanings. They clearly had the support of politicians and of the population. Do not be surprised if the latest reshuffle in the ruling party and the government of Turkey (including care Davutoglu) also had already prepared the coup.
Overall, we can agree with the Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, who said that the coup is evidence of serious opposition to Erdogan in society and in the armed forces.
Therefore, the task of the Turkish leader and his supporters is not only to suppress the coup, but also to prevent the gradual escalation of underlying processes in the civil war. Turkey is teetering on its edge.
If all previous repressions against the military failed to prevent a coup attempt, and the new will not solve anything, will only lead to the exasperation of the opponents of Erdogan. Moreover, it is impossible to stifle the growing public dissatisfaction with the policies of the Turkish leader, which put Turkey in a difficult foreign policy and economic situation.
The attempted coup destabilised the situation. This will affect the economy, which are already not in peak condition. In turn, economic problems will affect the social sphere. The decline in living standards will cause the growth of dissatisfaction with the government, and authoritarian methods of Erdogan and his supporters almost never leave room for compromise.
In addition, the repression of the coup, their supporters and suspected of insufficient loyalty to the regime will weaken the army.
In General we can say that the legitimate government of Turkey attempted coup weakened, and the existing problems, including those that caused the coup, not only have not gone away but worsened. Moreover, their resolution in the foreseeable period of time is not possible. The threat of full-scale civil war escalated in Turkey.
For Russia this is bad news. Whatever Erdogan – he is the legitimate head of Turkey. Besides, this is a strong charismatic leader able to make tough and creative decisions. In terms of General destabilization in the middle East, plunging into a condition of decay or half-life significant part of the local States, holistic stable Turkey (even very friendly) responded to Russia’s interests much more than the area of the anarchy on the southern borders. Today Turkey is a natural barrier between Russia and numerous Islamists. However, we must proceed from the fact that what happened cannot be changed. In the near future, Erdogan’s positions inside the country and on the international stage will be severely weakened. However, such persons, as he, feeling their vulnerability, usually trying to overcome it due to the greater stiffness (so as not to seem weak to his supporters).
If Erdogan will not be able to move beyond the paradigm of behavior, which dictates to him his nature, the solution space, both in domestic and in foreign policy will be for him to decline continuously, until compressed into one point. In this scenario we are witnessing today the beginning of the agony of the regime.
If he could overcome himself and find difficult compromise the game in domestic and foreign policy, then he has a chance over time to stabilize the situation and even to return to Turkey the position of influential regional player (though not the sole leader, to strive for Erdogan).
We need to be prepared for any scenario and every effort to persuade Erdogan to seek compromise. But one thing is for sure. The coup put bold cross on the remains of Erdogan his neo-Ottoman vision of the project. Suleiman the Magnificent, it failed. Now we have to fight to not complete way of life, as Bayezid the Lightning.
