Daniel The Server
However, Russia will not abandon attempts to influence the policy of the Balkan countries – expert opinion
Russia’s attempts to influence the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Montenegro failed, but the Kremlin will continue its efforts to prevent rapprochement between Montenegro and Serbia with NATO. Meanwhile, the Balkan countries should more actively use its autonomy, without expecting significant changes in U.S. policy in the region.
The questions of the Serbian service of “Voice of America” Milena Team answered Daniel, the Server (Daniel Serwer), Director of the program on conflict management school of advanced international studies at Johns Hopkins University, who was the special envoy of the US state Department in talks to end the war in Bosnia.
Elections in Montenegro – one defeat Putin
According to the expert, the results of the parliamentary elections in Montenegro were a victory of NATO and the defeat of the Russian President, despite the support of the Kremlin’s anti-NATO opposition.
“It seems that NATO has won. The Russians have a lot of “clocked” the opposition, trying to prevent the accession of Montenegro to NATO and to warn Serbia against it. They lost, – said the Server. It is a clear and unequivocal loss of Putin. However, it is expected that he will continue to create problems in Montenegro, trying to prevent the slightest rapprochement with NATO.”
Answering the question about possible forms of Russian interference in the internal policy of Montenegro, the Server noted the role of Russian diplomacy in maintaining sentiment against NATO in Montenegro, however, abstained from the other assumptions.
“First of all, they involve your Ambassador for public statements aimed at inciting anti-NATO forces. Let the investigating authorities will decide whether the Russians are doing even more, perhaps, by funding and encouraging anti-NATO forces in other ways”.
The US and Washington’s policy in the Balkans
According to the expert, the members of the Alliance as soon as possible to initiate the ratification of the Treaty of accession of Montenegro to NATO. However, he acknowledged that in terms of the US presidential election is going to be tough.
Speaking about possible changes in US policy in relation to the Balkan countries after the election of a new President, Server found it difficult to assess the possible policies of the Republican candidate, including, against his Pro-Russian statements, because of the “inconsistency” of Donald trump.
At the same time, if he wins the election, Hillary Clinton, the Balkan States should expect “fair relations with the government, Clinton”. “She is always on the side of democracy and the rule of law”, – said the expert, adding that in the Balkans, Clinton did not adhere exclusively provanskoe position.
At the same time, the expert stressed that the Balkan countries should show independence in solving existing problems and less to expect much of Washington politics.
“The Balkans are not a priority in Washington. No one should be under any illusions. We expect that the independent sovereign States of the Balkans will solve 99% of their problems. Washington and Brussels can give some attention 1% of them. But the idea of the sovereignty and independence of the state is that you take your own decisions”, – stressed the Server.
The opposition of Montenegro “fixated” on the confrontation of NATO
Turning to the question of democracy in Montenegro, the Server noted that the country lacks the opposition, which will recognize state sovereignty, will not be “fixated” on the struggle against NATO or the EU, and “will fight with Prime Minister Djukanovic, to promote the economic development or the fight against corruption”.
“This is an important missing element in Montenegro, the democratically oriented opposition, which may come to power and rule the country in case of victory on elections”.
When the Server noticed that national minority parties support the accession of Montenegro to NATO membership because it “guarantees them decent treatment, because NATO is a club of democracies”.
