According to published yesterday the review of the Bank of Russia on the dynamics of consumer prices, the surge in annual inflation in June to 7.5%, obviously due to its lowest values in June 2015. Most “base effect”, as in April–may, visible in the prices of fruits and vegetables. However, with the exception of the seasonal factor inflation accelerated from 0.5% in may to 0.7% in June, the regulator explains that the exhaustion of reserves of the crop, which led to a jump in prices for fruits and vegetables “after uncharacteristic for January-may decline, and the rise in world prices for raw sugar and petroleum products. The surge in seasonally adjusted inflation, analysts of the Central Bank is called the risk — but, as independent economists expect continued compression in the annual inflation rate in July: the base effect will start to operate in the negative, and the real incomes and consumer demand continue to shrink. The supply Outlook is favorable, but the global food prices, which jumped in June, at the end of the year may fall by 4%, expect the world Bank.
For 2015, food prices in Russia grew by 21% with inflation at 15.5% and for the first half of 2016 by another 6.5%. Their decrease for the year is not expected. According to the report of the analytical center for the government on employment, income and private consumption in February 2016, the share of food in retail sales was 49.9% is actually equal to the share of non-food (the previous high in may the crisis of 2009 is 49.6%). “By world standards a lot for a middle-income country,” the authors of the study. Most likely by mid-year, the share of food in retail sales exceeded the share of food, putting the new record.
This type of consumer behavior intelligence center called “protective”, confirming that survey data of the Ranepa, which in March 2016, more than a third of households claimed to only have enough money for food or not even enough for her. They also point to the decline in the share of savings in the structure of money income of households 13.9% in the January-may 2015 to 10.5% in January-may, 2016, “which complicates the prospects for recovery of growth is not only demand, but also the economy as a whole.” Note that the lower rates of savings income in may to 12.6% for the second month in a row spoke to the Ministry of economy, although first noted the “savings” the mood of the citizens.
