According to researches, in the near future China might face a serious demographic problem, which will negatively affect economic growth. It turns out that in China very few children.
As reported by Chinese media, June 1, demographer Yao Mason released the results of their research, which States that currently in the country the number of children under the age of 14 years has fallen to 16.5% of the total population. In the world this proportion is on average 27%.
While in 1982 the number of children under the age of 14 years in China accounted for 33,6% of the total population. In 30 years their number decreased by 120 million people.
Last month, financial expert John Mauldin published on the website Mauldin Economics article, which States that worldwide there is a significant increase in the number of older people and reducing the number of children. The lower population growth observed in the countries of Eastern Europe, Russia, China and Japan. The article also emphasizes that most of the looming demographic crisis will hurt China.
According to official data of Beijing, the number of births per year of children in the country declined from 26 million in the 60-ies up to 16 million currently. In 1995, China had 25.3 million students, and in 2008 their number fell by a third.
The research results also show that in China there is a very serious problem with the aging of the population. The rate of aging of China ranks first in the world. In the next 10 years, the number of young, employable people in the country will be reduced by 30%.
According to UN estimates, in the middle of this century, China will accommodate about 500 million people over the age of 60 years. Currently in China there are about 24 million people over the age of 80 years, accounting for 11% of all older people in the country.
Many Chinese demographers have long been sounding the alarm and warn of the serious consequences of current unhealthy trends of demographic development.
Currently 14.9% of Chinese citizens are pensioners older than 60 years. According to forecasts, in 2020 the number will reach 19,3%, and in 2050 — by 38.6%. During this period there will also be a significant reduction in the number of able-bodied people.
Demographer Yao Mason predicts that in 2021 in China will skyrocket the imbalance between younger and older people and a crisis of labour, and exacerbated by the gender imbalance, and will start serious problems associated with the maintenance of pensioners.
At the end of last year, the Chinese portal Hexun has published the data of the authorities on the level of fertility in the country, which is only 1,181. This suggests that the number of the next generation will be reduced by 45% and the subsequent — 70%. This level is also almost half less than the world average. At the same time just to replace generations with no population growth, it should be at 2.15.
Analyzing the results of the 2010 China population census, the authors came to the conclusion that in 2018 the number of young people aged 18 to 22 years in China will be reduced by 55.6% of the population in 2008. This will entail a massive national closure of schools and universities.
Among the main reasons for this phenomenon experts call the Communist authorities pursued a policy of birth control that lasted more than 30 years, as well as the deteriorating quality of life, resulting in in Chinese society is rapidly developing infertility.
Early Chinese publication Global Times reported that China’s infertility affects 15% of people of reproductive age, both men and women, and in 20 years their number has increased 5 times.
