One of the key Russian allies overseas — Venezuela is experiencing a serious political crisis that threatens to go into a civil war. Mostly “right” and “center-right” opposition sought the resignation of the “left” of President Nicolas Maduro, successor to Hugo Chavez.
On October 25 the national Assembly began the process of impeachment of the President. Maduro called on the next Parliament session, which will take place on 1 November. To the parliamentary methods of pressure can be added street. According to experts, the main cause of the crisis in the country is a difficult economic situation caused by falling oil prices. US influence is rather minor in character.
The impeachment process Maduro was preceded by awareness training. On Sunday, the parliamentarians adopted the “Agreement on the restoration of constitutional order in Venezuela.” Executive action was called the “coup by the regime of Nicolas Maduro against the Constitution and people of Venezuela”.
Such a rigid formulation caused a symmetrical reaction of the President. “In Venezuela was not yet a parliamentary coup, and we will not allow anything like this, let them know that “right” here and there,” said Maduro. And told the gathering in Caracas, the Council of national defense. This body convened in the cases, when threatened the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.
The formal reason for such a serious aggravation of confrontation between the Executive and legislative powers was an unexpected cancellation by the courts of seven States the outcome of the first stage of collecting signatures for a referendum on termination of powers of Maduro. The second phase is impossible.
The opposition is convinced that Maduro has stalled the referendum with the help of controlled judges. Stalling in the interest of the President.
Crucial may have the Vatican’s position. On Monday Pope Francis received the President of Venezuela. Having the nickname “Pope of the poor”, the Pontiff can become a peacemaker for his flock in this Latin American country.
In addition, Maduro is trying to influence the price of oil. So, he advocated the creation of a new Alliance, which would include OPEC members and other oil producers, including the United States. Im Venezuelan President in June proposed to restore the diplomatic relations, severed in the era of Chavez.
If these measures will work, the crisis can be overcome. The army does for the President. As stated by the Minister of defense Vladimir Padrino lópez, “the armed forces of the Bolivarian Republic do not believe that the country has been a violation of the constitutional order”.
However, everything can be solved on the street. Last March the opposition has collected about a million people.
Professor, Department of theory and history of international relations, faculty of international relations St. Petersburg state University Victor Heifetz believes that the domestic political situation in Venezuela on the brink of civil war.
Strictly speaking, the national Assembly cannot declare Maduro the impeachment, but may declare it political or criminal responsibility. They can impute two things. First, leaving the President went abroad without the sanction of Parliament. And the second is the provision of personal impact on the national electoral Council, which overturned the holding of a referendum.
Most likely, the decision will try to take 1 Nov. Although, in my opinion, Maduro will not come to the Parliament for discussion.
“SP”: — In the case of conflict, what forces can expect Maduro?
— There are two main factors — the army and the street. The army, in the person of the Minister of defence expressed support for Maduro. There are also unhappy, but the military understands that in the event of an opposition victory, the army is waiting for cleaning.
As for the streets, Maduro is now fantastically low popularity rating of the disapproval of 76.5%. However, of the remaining 20 percent of the President’s supporters, at least 5 percent ready to take to the streets. This is quite a lot. Especially in the capital. And it can bring the situation to a civil war.
Now both sides are deliberately pushing for this. The government and the opposition. Moreover, the opposition to a greater extent. She hopes that if blood is spilled, the opponents of the President will receive strong international support. To submit Maduro bloody dictator — the next scenario is known.
“SP”: — is it possible to regard the June offer Maduro to restore diplomatic relations with the United States as a sign of weakness?
Is Maduro really has shown a willingness to compromise. This is evidenced by his visit to the Vatican, and the fact that he appointed a meeting of the Council of national defense, to come the speaker of the Parliament, the opposition, and that relations with the United States. Yes, everything is a compromise, to which Maduro is pushing economic situation. But it’s steps forward, and not running toward the United States.
I don’t think the opposition’s actions directly directs the state Department. Unlikely. Although Maduro Americans and don’t like. But without serious internal reasons the state Department would not have been able to do.
There is another point connected with the personality Maduro. Still, Chavez was a charismatic. Maduro — no. Chavez was a fantastic political talent, he with many was able to find a common language. At times — and with the opposition. Maduro does not know how.
As for the inefficiency of public administration, it was the same, and under Chavez, and in the 1990s, when they were in power the current opposition. The public sector in this country have always been clumsiness. In fact, Chavez came to power at the time, including on the wave of dissatisfaction with the system of public administration.
“SP”: — what is the state of economic ties between Russia and Venezuela? The impression is that under Chavez, they were more wide than it is now with Maduro.
— Not at all. Recently signed several new contracts, including natural gas. Cooperation in the field of oil and gas with Maduro is not reduced, even expanded slightly. Weapons do we began to sell less. But that’s because Venezuela was not money. Said the drop in oil prices.
Researcher, Institute of Latin American Academy of Sciences Emil Dabagyan believes this factor is a low price for the main export goods of Venezuela — the main cause of the events. He calls the current economic situation “hopeless.” Unlike during the reign of Chavez, when the price of oil was high.
— Chavez was able to “throw” money vulnerable people to feed his authority. Maduro is no such possibility. He tries to rectify the situation. Was in Azerbaijan, in Turkey, in contact with Iran, trying to negotiate with oil-producing countries of the stabilization of oil production. Hopes that rising oil prices will change and the domestic situation.
“SP”: — could the root cause of the events in Venezuela be the influence of the United States?
— No. The US is not playing a role. Most importantly is a heavy economic situation.
“SP”: — After multilateral contacts with Chavez, which is characteristic for 2000 years, are there new examples of cooperation between Venezuela and Russia?
— Indeed, there was a lot of military contacts. Our ships came under Chavez in the ports of Venezuela. Met the first person. Now Russia, too, wants the relationship to maintain. Has recently concluded an agreement on deliveries to Venezuela of wheat. In addition, Igor Sechin, is trying to invest in oil production.
According to the Deputy Director of Institute of Latin America of the RAS, Professor Vladimir Sudarev, the position of the Maduro yet strong enough. Besides intervened in the conflict, the Vatican, whose position in traditionally Catholic Latin America is very strong.
Now Maduro have all the levers of power. And the judiciary, and the armed forces and the police. And everything, everything, everything in the hands of Maduro and his supporters.
Recently, Maduro went to the Vatican, met with Pope. And dad it seems convincing to believe that it is necessary to release political prisoners, that the current terrible economic situation we must find a compromise with the opposition. The President promised the Pope that he would invite the opposition on the island of Margarita, a beautiful Venezuelan island in the Caribbean sea, where it will commence serious negotiations.
And here it is important how long these negotiations will last. The opposition, though fragmented into radicals and moderates, will still be in solidarity to demand a referendum.
If it does come to a confrontation, it is important how to behave in the military. There are supporters of Maduro, and those who are willing to serve the new government and to preserve their privileges. The same goes for the police.
What is the role of the United States, they are stuck in the middle East and not the fact that they need conflict in Venezuela. In addition, several major intermediaries from the countries of Latin America are in Caracas. Others will go there.
But the most important is the word of the Pope. Similar to the role the Vatican played in the settlement of the conflict between the U.S. and Cuba.
“SP”: — in this situation, How to behave in Russia? To protect Maduro to the last, or to rely on new political forces?
— With regard to Russia, and Gazprom and our oil companies still operating in the Orinoco river basin. Do not work very well because of the fact that the state of Venezuela is empty, it cannot fulfil its obligations.
But this does not mean that the Russian hunt in the event of coming to power of the opposition. There are well aware that the presence of large Russian companies benefit from Venezuela.
In this situation, when it is difficult to predict how events will develop, Russia needs to wait, monitor the situation, but in any case not to intervene in this complex political crisis.
