Privatiziruemih the state-owned company was estimated at 315 billion, but experts believe that his price may increase
The government agrees with the assessment by Ernst & Young (EY) privatized state-owned stake of “Bashneft” in the range 297-315 billion rubles. In the near future, the Agency will give its opinion to the Ministry of economic development to prepare a report to the government. Experts note that due to the large number wishing to buy a package it potentially the price could rise another 5-10%. If the package will be decided to sell it to a strategic investor, the increase may not be. At the moment the premium is more than 30%.
— By results of examination of the report of EY on the assessment of the market value of government’s stake in Bashneft, the Agency has no objection to the estimated cost indicated in the report. In the near future the report will be sent to the Ministry of economic development for the formation of the report to the government of the Russian Federation, gave the “Izvestia” the words of the head of the Federal Agency for state property management Dmitry Pristanskaya his representative.
Recall that last Friday, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told reporters that the evaluator indicated the possible range of prices of the privatized stake in Bashneft in 297-315 billion rubles. At the start of sales, the price can make a 306 billion.
Of the Russian Federation represented by Rosimushchestvo owns of 50.08% of the shares of Bashneft in the property of Bashkiria — 25% plus one share. In may, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree eliminated the “Bashneft” from the list of strategic companies, allowing the sale of all state shares in the company. VTB Capital acts as a consultant in the transaction for the privatization of “Bashneft”.
According to Minister of economic development Alexei speaker, the privatization of “Bashneft” will be held in September-October. The Minister also said that the desire to participate in the privatization of state-owned shares in the company expressed nine candidates, among which there is no directly foreign companies. Their names the Minister did not mention.
According to media reports, among the contenders — “Rosneft”, NOC, LUKOIL, RDIF, Tatneft, RussNeft, Fund Energy, Antipinsky oil refinery and “Tatneftegaz”.
According to the Moscow stock exchange on Monday, the capitalization of “Bashneft” was 455,66 billion rubles, or $7 billion at the exchange rate. Thus, the starting price of sale package can be increased more than 30%.
— Before the arrest of Yevtushenkov the value of the shares of “Bashneft” was 1.9 thousand rubles per ordinary share. In September 2014, was formally charged and the quotation went down, reaching in October the mark of 955 rubles, that is, the capitalization of “Bashneft” fell in half, from 400 billion rubles to 200 billion rubles, — said the Deputy managing Director of “BCS Maxim Shein. — At the moment the price of 3 thousand rubles per share is quite adequate, so that the premium for a large package is justified. Although it is worth noting that if you compare with foreign companies, it is cheap, like most companies in the Russian oil industry.
His colleague, an analyst at GK Forex Club Irina Rogova, said that, in General, quite a large number of people wishing to buy a package of shares of “Bashneft” has the potential to increase its value.
— Maybe the package will rise in price by 5-10%, but no more. Thus, the maximum amount can be up to 350 billion Although if the package will be decided to sell it to a strategic investor, and such increase may not be, — says Irina Rogova.
Natalia Milchakova, the Deputy Director of analytical Department of company “Alpari” believes that “due to high demand, the price will rise, but not much, and about 2-5%, that is, up to a maximum of 321 billion rubles.
— Stronger growth rates will be disturbed by low oil prices and the associated costs of companies, — said Natalia Milchakova.
But Mr Werner, Vice President of IFC Financial Center, believes that getting more premium for control will be difficult to count: the majority of candidates in the race already at the start of the auction, as “Tatneft” and “LUKOIL” will hardly want to pay.
Even a consortium of foreign funds with the FUND under current market conditions unlikely to display great enthusiasm, if the price goes beyond the upper limit of the named range in 297-315 billion rubles. The theoretical premium of 30-50% is likely to be added “sanctions” discount and takes into account the uncertainty in the energy market. The optimal development of competition would be the victory of “LUKOIL”. In this scenario, the share of the largest private companies in production, if you rely on the data CDU TEK for the first half, would have increased from 15.3% to 19.2%, and in processing, according to estimates of the companies, from 16% to 23% — said Stanislaw Werner.
According to Natalia Milchakova, despite the fact that now many experts tend to call LUKOIL most likely buyer of Bashneft, according to her, “Tatneft” can become the most real applicant for this asset.
— Firstly, it is unlikely that this investor will occur in the future problems with the authorities of the Republic of Bashkortostan as a minority shareholder of “Bashneft”. Earlier “Tatneft” and “Bashneft” have positioned themselves not as competitors to each other, but rather as partners. At the time the company had intended to create in the region of the petrochemical cluster, ” she explained.
According to her, the creation of large regional vertically integrated oil companies in the future will be an important factor of protection against the absorption of larger private and public competitors. Because such a large asset will be sold at a high premium.
Maybe, Tatneft will have to borrow and it won’t be a problem to do it, as it didn’t fall under U.S. sanctions and the EU will easily be able to borrow money, including from foreign banks, — said Natalia Milchakova.
Today Bashneft in terms of production is in sixth place among Russian companies. It produces about 3.67 percent of oil. By the end of 2015 production reached 19.9 million t. the processing company has a share of 7% of Russia’s total, or 19.1 million tonnes.
