A leading financial conglomerate in the United States — Bank of America, has published a forecast for the development of the world economy. This was reported by the Agency video News Service. It shows — and this is done without preliminary calculations and justifications — the extremely adverse trends that await us and the whole world.
So, next year the average annual price of oil will fall, according to unreasonable numbers of overseas financiers, to $ 25 per barrel. The American dollar will cost 90 rubles. Bank of America stipulates, however, that these data refer to “negative Outlook”. Similarly, Russian Russian GDP in 2017 will be reduced by 2.4%, inflation surpass 7%. As for the key Bank rate, it will remain at 10%.
However, Bank of America sweetened is called, the pill is released and also a baseline forecast, which can be called quite optimistic. According to him, a year real growth of 1.1% and, in particular, the slowdown in inflation to 4%. Urals oil will grow in value up to $ 59 per barrel.
Meanwhile on 3 October, the dollar on the exchange was sold for 62,36 ruble, Euro — ruble 70,06, Brent crude was about 50.5 percent (as of 14:40 Moscow time).
…It is noteworthy that just a week before the “apocalyptic” for Russia, the forecast of American Bank, another important financial structure of the US — Bloomberg, stated in his review to minimize the volatility of the ruble over the past 2 years.
Many international observers also noted that the Russian market became the second, after Brazil, the best source of income in developing countries, Kerry trading (profit on the difference in interest rates in different countries. — Ed.).
The ruble remains stable; this fact should arouse the interest of carry traders, especially after the Bank of Russia has made it clear that it will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of this year — gives life.<url>” the words of currency expert Radobank in London Peter Mathis.
…The week before, increasingly voiced in very different analytical circles, the conclusion that Russia is unable to cope with the crisis, tried to refute the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. In his article in the journal “economic Issues”, dated 22 September, he acknowledged that at the end of 2014 we predicted a catastrophe, and one prominent politician argued that the Russian economy will be “torn to shreds”.
— We predicted unmanaged budget crisis, ” writes Medvedev, — the failure in the inflation spiral and the long fall of the ruble, a long and deep recession, the rise in unemployment. In General, the worst case scenario.
However, according to the Prime Minister, his government has managed to resist all subsequent shocks, not to sink while in irresponsible and harmful populism.
— To judge the full prochitannosti of a forecast, you need to hold it in hands, to perform his numbers, says the senior researcher of the Institute of strategic studies Nikolai Troshin. — While the first impression from the message about the so-called “negative scenario,” Bank of America to the Russian economy in 2017, this is an attempt of stuffing information, the notorious “horror stories”. And these techniques — you must admit have a certain value for those companies that target the Russian market and its players, anyway, will act in accordance with his preconceived, clearly gloomy data. Any predictions about currency rates promising will come true due to the fact that lots of traders will begin to act in accordance with these instructions, and they can at minimum values to affect current courses.
However, the real macroeconomic factors, which could lead to voiced American Bank indicator 90 rubles to the dollar in the next six months or year, as the actual inflation rate exceeding 7%, is not visible.
“SP”: — At the very least, domestic economists, and a variety of views, unlike Bank of America — these figures are hesitant to indicate even hypothetically — not to mention how to integrate them in the scenarios…
— The issue here is not even predict whether such a pessimistic variant of the Russian experts. Far from him and most Western analysts as the recent agreement by OPEC to freeze oil production largely set in the immediate prospects the increase in the price of oil, which definitely will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. So what we learn from the review of U.S. Bank in its assumptions about the nearest future of the Russian economy, the opposite of actual trends.
“SP”: — the Motivation of preparation of such forecasts-bugbear — how it is rooted in the plane where economy ends and politics begins, and not very cleanly?
— Yes, by and large, there is already a political task properties when an attempt is organized to play against the Russian national currency, to prevent the recovery of the Russian Federation. And this is attempted in conditions when the global macroeconomic situation improves.
— The probability of a “negative scenario” is becoming less likely in the context, including of last week’s agreement by OPEC, — considers the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank, doctor of Economics Yaroslav Lissovolik. — But continue to operate certain risks. They can be associated with the possible actions of the Federal Reserve System (fed. Institute that performs essentially the functions of the Central Bank of the United States. — Ed.) that is, with a sharp, aggressive rate hikes from the financial structure.
In addition, another source of such shock can be a sudden change of the economic dynamics in China — when, as we know, only one day, on June 12 last year, the stock market of China fell by 29%, lost 2.8 trillion. dollars of capitalization. In General, the inhibition of growth of Chinese GDP has been observed for 4 years. Moreover, the intensity of its growth — the lowest in the past quarter of a century. But a few years ago everyone raved about the growth of China, when it was demonstrated in double figures in plus. So, both of these factors — the U.S. Federal reserve and China, we act as a combination and individually. But at the same time, it must be noted that in recent years there have been signs that the situation in the Russian economy will stabilize.
“SP”: — as far As the tactics of OPEC to limit production affects the well-being of the Russian economy, and why it is not reflected, in your opinion, in the us forecast?
— With all the positive value of the agreement on 28 September at an informal meeting in Algeria to limit the production parameters of 32.5−33 million barrels per day, according to the specific restrictions for each country in the cartel until the agreement is missing. The final decision can be made (although, as stated, not a fact) at the next summit, which will take place on November 30 in Vienna. So I can not say about my doubt for this reason that causes the General inconsistency of the position as head of OPEC and individual members of this Association. Moreover, the state-oil exporters is not the first time violates in advance the agreements.
“SP”: — the theory of deliberate “stuffing” on the part of Bank of America in the format of popular information war, do not you admit?
— No. I mentioned two factors are quite serious, and I would not have resorted here in the estimates to the excessive conspiracy.
