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Alexander Lukashenko: “handcuffed”

Александр Лукашенко: "надеть наручники"

“Handcuffed” is one of the favorite expressions of Alexander Lukashenko. The overbearing man is probably capable of delivering pleasure to see the animal fear in the eyes of the officials. Fear, in turn, may provide some economic benefit, but very limited. So a presidential Directive to put behind bars perpetrators of too sharp rise in bills for a communal flat will not save Belarusians from further rip-off.

“…Cuff me to those who have not fulfilled brought to my disposal rates. Put on and publicly put a dozen other people. Everything will fall into place. There should be a list of who this “blockhead” invented”, — such order was given by the President of Belarus the head of state control Committee Leonid Anfimov when I heard the 22 February report on tax and excise policy in 2016.

Handcuffs as an artistic image

The cuffs here — probably, to some extent an artistic image. With all the legal nihilism of the Belarusian authorities, the national audit office not directly put us in jail, you first need to bring criminal charges and to judge.

Perhaps no one in the end and not go to jail. Threatening the passage a priori designed for two effects — the people will appreciate the efforts of its high intercessor and that frightened officials slightly stop the process of withdrawal of the population on one hundred percent payment of housing and communal services (this should happen in 2018) will reduce their Prime cost, will cancel absolutely blatant cheating.

Yes, in the system of housing and communal services many irrational, there is little transparency. But as long as there remains a monopoly state, big nothing will.

The government organizes some local experiments with a change of signage municipal offices, but it was all an act. If the same plumber to call the house master, is the skill and zeal he will not increase. The creation of a competitive environment in housing and communal services, the consumer could, for example, to choose between Jason (or as it’s now called) and private business, the authorities do not go.

Deja vu continues

Listening to subordinates on 22 February, Lukashenko has again repeated that “the government’s sweeping privatization cannot accept”. And in General, they say, “Gaidar reforms of the Russian sample, the Belarusians are not necessary”.

This refers to market reforms of the early 1990s, the Eastern neighbours under the leadership of the liberal economist Yegor Gaidar. His shock therapy helped to fill the shelves, gave impetus to the business, but hit the pocket of ordinary masses. “Hidrovia” became a bogey for the entire post-Soviet society (in addition to promuchivshis reforms of the Baltic States).

Lukashenko in 1994 won the election, using fear of the layman before the horrors of capitalism and promising a return to the bright socialist past.

In November of the same year, after returning from treatment in Sochi, the young President immediately went on television to smash the government who tried to implement market transformation. Told me to Unscrew the pictures, issued a decree which restored the price control of products and goods of over a hundred names.

But after a short time the numbers on the price tags began to increase again. The economic imperatives prevailed. In the era of Lukashenka’s annual inflation has rarely dropped below double digits, and in 2011, for example, jumped to 108.7 percent. Yes last year was 12%, while frozen salaries.

So, the current staging of caring about people is salasanaa DEJAVU, not saving purses of Belarusians.

Belarusians are flush with money abroad?

Communicating with officials on February 22, the President reminded that according to the people the promises of “the price increase should first be offset by rising incomes”. But even according to official statistics, real incomes of Belarusians last year has decreased almost on 6%. In practice, the majority feels that Church is much more serious.

Anyway, there is no doubt that incomes are falling. Then, according to presidential logic, prices and tariffs should proportionately reduce. It is clear that the state has no resources, only in the pace of the cost.

And Lukashenka himself is forced to admit that the price increase is inevitable, however, motivation is a tricky one: “We’re not going anywhere, we are surrounded by States where prices are higher. So still need to adjust them. Otherwise it will be to clean up the goods”.

It is strange that the Belarusians in this case, by contrast, massively dragged every product, for example, from Poland. Flush with money, stupid. Probably because we care about their wallets recently tightened customs rules. Oh, and cut down to 22 Euro limit duty-free parcels from abroad. Apparently, the wasteful overstock compatriots in foreign online shops at fantastic prices. Spender, behind these eyes and the eyes need.

If without irony, it is abroad much cheaper because there economy more efficient. Yes, in countries with developed market economies have long pay 100% communal, but there’s and earnings much higher.

The Belarusian model was able to deliver revenue growth only until then, while there were generous subsidies from Moscow. But the honeymoon years are over, and forever. Hopes of the Belarusian leadership to sit out the crisis is irrational. Russia without reforms and under Western sanctions itself is doomed to long-term degradation, and possibly collapse.

Coming shock without therapy

It is curious that, ordering her to wear the handcuffs for the officials, while Lukashenko, apparently, does not give the go-ahead to tie up the opposition demanding his resignation two hundred meters from the presidential administration, on October square in the capital.

On 22 February there was another unsanctioned rally disgruntled small vendors, which had the initiative Mikalay Statkevich, Anatol Liabedzka and other political opponents of the regime. Police attempts to arrest the troublemakers, to keep the minutes looked shamefully sluggish.

Knowing the grip of the Belarusian security forces (in 2010, boasted Lukashenko, dispersed thousands Square “for seven and a half minutes”), we can conclude that deter them. The game continues with the West for the sake of money.

After a couple of days in Minsk fly from Brussels people having a direct relation to money of the European Union, in particular the Vice-President of the European investment Bank Laszlo Baranyay, representatives of the Directorate General of the European Commission for economic and financial Affairs. According to the press Secretary of the foreign Ministry, the visit schedule — meetings of the delegation with the leadership of the National Bank, ministries of economy, Finance, foreign Affairs and the presidential Administration of Belarus. The sequence instances are very eloquent.

It is easy to guess that the conversation will primarily revolve around the receipt of financial assistance. But through market and burdened with his problems with Europe will not save the anachronistic “Belarusian model of development”. So that the big loan will not. And will give under the condition of reforms. Private investors, having heard once again about the handcuffs, don’t rush in here with bags of money.

Yes, you can try again to fool creditors, to simulate the conversion, as it did when borrowing from the IMF in 2009-2010. But first, the testing will be tougher. Secondly, since you still have to go to 100% payment for communal, to find other sources of replenishment, the population prepared for a shock without therapy.

Belarusians will fully pay for the inefficient domestic economic model, to change at the top which I am afraid of political risks for the regime. Thus prostacet will show Scarecrow wild capitalism, remembering in vain, the late Yegor Gaidar.

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