The Central Bank reiterated that the repetition of the 1998 default, no reason not. This is my article appears today in the “Free press”.
Say: “Big is seen at a distance.” But with regard to historical events, the interpretation of which affects the interests of political and economic leaders, and even the monopoly of controlling the media, it is time to tell and differently: the greater the distance, the easier it is shamelessly misinterpret past events.
Two dates second half of August always attract our attention, remind us of past events. 17 August 1998 – the collapse of the debt pyramid and default. 19-21 August 1991 – a failed coup, the creation and failure of the “putsch”. To latest date this year special attention quarter-century anniversary of the event.
Now we will stop on the date of the previous and next article – on the anniversary of the 1991 coup.
In relation to the default of 1998 every year we are reminded of what was under Yeltsin, they say, costs exceed revenues and therefore came to ruin. It is emphasized that thanks to the wise policy of the present management more is impossible. But forget the main thing.
First. It was not in the “social populism” left majority in the Duma and “unsecured” government spending, but in large-scale looting of the state and its budget, a few years offset by the pyramid hozaystvennih. The pyramid, of course, was bound to collapse. But to ruin it didn’t have obviously criminal way. Details of what personally and how this was done is in the special report, “the Conclusion of the interim Commission of the Federation Council to investigate the causes, circumstances and consequences of the 1998 default”. This report can be found online.
And second, then the crime is left unpunished. Moreover, encouraged.
Not a sin again and again to remind: the looting of the state and its budget was not suppressed (although offset by the time not a pyramid borrowing, and ultra-high market price of energy), and all the key figures involved in those events, not just not punished, but still at high positions on the management of strategic state property. Even from the first “Troika”: the then Prime Minister Kiriyenko and still manages Rosatom; by the then Finance Minister Zadornov, the head of the parastatal Bank “VTB-24”; Central Bank Chairman Dubinin during this time, and on “Gazprom” and RAO “UES of Russia”, until June 2015 Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Bank “VTB”, and still with you on our behalf “watching”… that is, all our state resources and cash flows.
Accordingly, annually, after each vigorous report that “for the new default has no basis” is not tired to repeat that the objective evidence so far, really not, but everything is subjective – the ability to crank out new giant fraud with impunity – there.
For a dozen years, my reasoning was purely theoretical, but two years ago has been amply confirmed by the practice: without any default and, by and large, without any objective justification (in contrast to the situation in August 1998, the ruble, however, was re-milled.
Accordingly, if a new collapse of the ruble no one answered, just the same as for the default a dozen years before, the current spells of the next highest officials in the anniversary of the default, which is no basis for a new default no – what these spells are?
New as in not official, but is gradually promoted the interpretation of the events of 1998 are particularly noteworthy. Namely, they say, nothing is so tragic in those events and was not, on the contrary, revived industry, began the development of…
Interpretation is not accidental, but deliberately opportunistic: these positions at a high level attempted to justify the collapse of the ruble for 2014, saying, but our producers have received benefits. I should add: “those who survived…”.
What is the answer?
Two points.
First. If the default was so good, and even automatically would lead to the flourishing of the national industry would not have Yeltsin to send urgently the then government to resign and form a new. In fact, large-scale robbery and mass impoverishment – not socio-economic benefit, although forcing people to take extraordinary efforts for survival. Then those who survived can thank fate for the test, which they managed to overcome that made them stronger. To thank destiny and himself, but in no way those crooks and bandits (even rebuking the government and the highest offices), which put them in such a difficult position.
Second. Pulled the country, gave impetus to the development of the industry did not default, but the government of Primakov-maslyukova, in which Primakov was more political cover (could not openly put on the post of Prime Minister the representative of the Communist party) and the economic policy led by the former Chairman of Gosplan Yu. d. Maslyukov. The essence of precedent is that in a completely hopeless situation, when the government was falling from the hands of Yeltsin, albeit very briefly, but was forced to seek help in the salvation of the country (and thus themselves in power) to resist him and his team the political forces to the left and national-oriented majority in the Duma. For all subsequent years trying not to focus (as well as the impunity that followed, and even the current regime clearly promoting the main culprits of default), but the precedent is extremely important for us.
It is not surprising that today, while the ruble again (in autumn 2014) milled more than twice, however, repeating the effect the economic boom of 1999 and is not observed. And it’s not that was still miraculously preserved Soviet production capacities, and now they’re gone, like, not on what quickly raise production. The case, first of all, that then, at least at the government level, change of power, and the people there hope and prospect. The entire economic policy of the period of the government of Primakov-maslyukova” under the leadership of the Central Bank, Gerashchenko, was aimed to stimulate production and limit financial speculation. Today nothing like that is observed.
To the last date and the upcoming elections, I repeat the slogan of the moment: for the economic recovery it is not enough to derail the national currency, but necessary also (in fact primarily) to change the government.
