Russia needs a mission, not mysticism
Approach to geopolitics with an irrational point of view, with apocalyptic positions appears to be comparable to the situation in Russia at the beginning of the XX century, when the higher part of the elite were in thrall to the mystical ideas, took belated, illogical decisions, was completely divorced from reality. For which he paid: and the country, and their lives.
The fate of Turkey’s “foregone conclusion” numerous guardians and irrationalist religious-mystical approaches to geopolitics. If to summarize all settings and ideas, then the future of this country is deplorable. She will be involved in the chain of regional conflicts, civil war breaks out, there will be foreign intervention, up to a third of people will become refugees, a significant proportion will die. The country will be divided, and Constantinople will go the “right” people.
Dangerous tribute
Of course, there are objective and subjective preconditions of the crisis and decline of our southern black sea neighbor. First, refugees, the content of which Turkey gets nod from European countries. Critical increase of their number will create a huge burden on the infrastructure and the budget, even if not to take into account the facts, when under the guise of refugees in the country penetrate the radical extremists. Besides this tribute – a kind of drug, abrupt cessation of supply to them will significantly exacerbate the situation.
“Secondly, it is the gap of economic ties, reducing travel and manufacturing industries. Not only because of Russian sanctions. They play not the first role, but may be the last straw, slominska the camel’s back.
Thirdly, the growth of unemployment, reduction of investment attractiveness at the background of economic decline and political instability. Internal problems of the country, starting with the infamous “middle income trap”, have begun to deteriorate long before the conflict with Russia. The confidence of foreign investors undermines the interest rate policy of the Turkish Central Bank, as well as the transition to the presidential form of government.
Fourthly, national and primarily the Kurdish factor. This ethnicity is at the stage of formation of statehood, claims to be a significant part of Turkish lands. Economic crisis or geopolitical defeat may push the country towards disintegration.
Among the subjective reasons need to include voluntaristic, with signs of revanchist nationalism, the policy of the government and Erdogan. Last more gives the impression of a “hot guy”, ready to intensify the conflict for fear of losing face. Logic reminds Erdogan about street muggers of the sample 90. First to the victim send the smallest and most frail member of the gang, whose task is to provoke a response. And then all the GOP-the company “brings justice”, beating out from person’s valuables, money, and even life.
While the Turkish leader feels the support of Europe, imposed a tribute and living in fear of refugees and terrorist attacks, while his generals quietly enter the offices of NATO, he thinks he’s protected. So, ready not only to dictate their will, to arrange small provocation and to escalate the hysteria, but decide to invade Syria under the pretext of creating a “security zone”, the overlap of the Straits and blows to the Russian contingent.
The subjective factor, the growing appetite, the inability to stop or to admit they were wrong to push Erdogan to complicate the situation, involving in a confrontation with new forces. It is largely hostage to the initial position from which to retreat, because it’s the end of his political career and charges of prohibited cooperation with Russia in IG. While they may not be the basis for pressure on Turkey. But Erdogan is a loser – a good target for prosecution. And then Europe will remember him in connection with the Islamists.
Russia has no right to act like its black sea neighbor in his irrational and irresponsible policies based on ideology, turned to the past. The Turkish propaganda machine is just waiting to mobilize the population in support of the military-political regime of Erdogan, finally to suppress the freedom of journalism, to destroy any sane opposition, to obtain the desired image panslavists the aggressor, as we already determined, for example, in Turkish Yenicag (“AG oktay Guner” – “Where is Russia heading?”).
Our country must remain a friend to the peoples of Turkey. Regardless of the local regime. This is the only constructive position.
Prophets and suitcases
The existence of an ideology, mission, idea, which is presented to the rest of the world as justification for the right to power, is a vital necessity for the state.
Only recently the Russian political community, a former prisoner of many years in the applied manipulating technology, is starting to see “illusory reality” is able to work only a limited time. Even the best management practices public opinion are baffled when solving large-scale historical challenges. Ideology is needed.
But instead developments in this direction we get from the chests soaked with naphthalene ideas of the XVIIth, in the best case the end of the XIX century. Take the same Constantinople, which must belong to “you know who” than have tried to make the soldier masses in 1914-1915.
Such a “mystical” approach – a potential framework for global conflict and internal civil war in Russia, and without thinking about the capture of Constantinople and the Straits. The authors calling for such a man-made Apocalypse, today is enough. “In the old days no self-respecting commander did not dare take a step, before surrounding his soothsayers, the soothsayers or the Magi promised the favor of heaven,” preaches Roman Ilyushchenko (“Erdogan is not Tamerlan. The elders predicted the collapse of Turkey”). But this does not mean that in our time in formulating geopolitical strategies we must be guided by astrological predictions.
Surely Timur was guided not only by dreams. There is a version of history that while parked under the Dace he consciously decided not to go to war with Russia broke with its previous raids of the Horde population, and peaceful relations with potential adversaries of the Horde is more consistent with its strategic objectives. The enemy of your enemy can become a friend. In turn, in the autumn of 1395, Muscovite forces captured many cities of the Volga region, taking advantage of the defeat of the hordes of Tamerlane.
No less dangerous to be considered and the expectation for “end times”, Armageddon. It is obvious that almost all modern eschatological and having an irrational and metaphysical basis of the ideas resonate with the regulations and guidelines of the banned in Russia IG, and this “deficit of justice” and the expectation of judgment day.
There is no difference, whose authority covered agonizing Apocalypse cohort authors Cosmas Atelescope, Paisius the Athonite, Arseny of Kappadokiyskoy or is not recognized by the Orthodox Church of Vanga. You can answer only by saying: “but Of that day or hour no one knows, neither the Angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father” (“the gospel of Mark”.13:32).
What to Constantinople, it is necessary “to reduce the importance” of the problem, and then the desired will be achieved not so serious and bloody price. Recall the slogans against Constantinople and the Straits were a moral justification of Russia’s participation in the First world war, in which she came unprepared. The outcomes we remember.
Our political system is currently stadial before the call, determining not only the direction and guidelines for development, but the very fact of its existence.
On the one hand, there are objective socio-economic difficulties caused by internal reasons and mismanagement, flawed and failed solutions. On the other – outright and overt external pressure, sanctions, the intensification of geopolitical competition. But it is not a reason to pack your bags, dig bunkers, to buy crates of tinned meat. Or hot a head rush into the maelstrom of eschatological, revolutionary passions.
Apocalypse, doomsday or “end times”, as happened in the previous era. The chain of disasters, social and military-political conflicts will lead to a transformation of the way of most States, to violent, sorry, to resolve the disputes with further awareness of the need to negotiate and articulate the rules co-host on planet Earth.
Attempts to primitivism international relations, reducing them to theories of conspiracy, to divide the sides in black and white, with labels and religious-mystical justification of Russia’s position is “tunnel” vision problems, loss of initiative. And the result is inevitable in such relation to the geopolitics of defeat we get the cohort posypaya ashes on their heads “prophets”, admonishing that the Lord has punished for their sins.
It is better to be guided by a well-known commandment: “and He said to them, not for you to know the times or the seasons, which the Father hath put in His own power” (the acts of the Apostles, 1:7). And to provide the clergy to save souls, historians digging into the past, and the politicians and military to defend their interests among themselves.
