Today, all the more clearly emerges the historical parallel between the events of a century ago and modern “military campaign” of the Russian Federation, writes the Professor, the doctor of sociological Sciences Igor Rudenko.
Today, all the more clearly emerges the historical parallel between the events of a century ago and modern “military campaign” of the Russian Federation. The state of Russian society during the First world war (Germany and Austria-Hungary also “obeyed” this rule) can be represented as a graph. In the first year curve is literally go up, then follow some steep steps down, and finally the cliff and fall to hell. 1914 – the jubilation and euphoria in the period of mobilization, but soon the first cold shower (the death of the Russian armies in East Prussia). 1915 – bewilderment and quiet grumble; of the hardships of war increased; the death of soldiers has become widespread (since the beginning of the war, 3.5 million dead); was looking for traitors – the so-called “meadowside”, and at the top of the state has already split. 1916 – the military stalemate that could not save even the famous Brusilov’s breakthrough, the anger of the masses and the aggravation of the crisis of the state apparatus (the phenomenon of Rasputin). 1917 – a social explosion, the change of power (the collapse of the monarchy); the war is transferred into the society, there is the first mass brutality, for example, the unfounded murder of officers of the Navy of Kronstadt sailors; the come to power Bolsheviks and the left socialist revolutionaries, led by Lenin and Trotsky, and civil war becomes inevitable. 1918 – the beginning of the great chaos (Russian time of troubles), surrender of territories to the former opponent of the Brest peace, frenzy, terror, famine in the capitals.
But to get involved in the war Nicholas II was not necessary, and the reason, stupid atrocity in Sarajevo, was questionable to him to derail the Empire. And Wilhelm, Kaiser of Germany, enabled the brother of Nicolas, come to their senses and cancel mobilization. Don’t listen to the Eastern king! Arrogantly did not answer the telegram, and issued a Manifesto about the war. He was probably nice (today’s youth says “love”) to go to the balcony of the Winter Palace (2 August 2014), and at the bottom to see the crowd with their portraits, icons, banners, Patriotic banners, the sea of people descending on his knees and singing “God save the Tsar”, shouting “hurrah!”… Good Russian people forgot everything and forgave his Orthodox king, and asked only one thing – bring on a war with the enemies of Russia, give us you kill them all, and at the same time to clear the Dardanelles from the infidels! The people knelt down, and the rating of the first person has skyrocketed (sorry there was then a VTSIOM). And another important detail: on 8 August at the meeting of the State Duma of the Minister of Finance of the barn was reported as a brilliant monetary sphere, Russia in 1914 was, indeed, at the peak of economic development. And than all ended? At the beginning of 1917 in the capital of the Empire due to the disruption of food supplies began spontaneous revolts “bottom”, which escalated into the revolution. In less than three full years, and the Orthodox Tsar, the anointed of God and Supreme Commander, sat abandoned in the staff car, and some upstarts from the state Duma poked him a piece of paper with the text of the abdication of Nicholas did not fight for power. In his abdication and wrote: “In these decisive days in the life of Russia we consider the duty of conscience to facilitate for our people the close Union and rallying of all forces of people for the speedy achievement of victory…”. At the ball the duty of conscience is completely absent. In relation to power cook’s children are more passionate and hard, obviously, “the son of a cook and localwiki” to cling to the teeth for power. Nicholas did not Rob Russia share the Caspian oil fields he never speculated, and the king had looted billions – even the Bolsheviks in the corruption of the last Emperor was never charged. How is it possible to part with the power of a modern dictator of Russia? – “Because, I suppose, will peel clean off, even on oak dock will be planted, and all their belongings back-breaking labor will go to new tillage; and he would be like the old woman, with nothing…”.
Go back to the analogy. Russia is starting 2014 in a great geopolitical game the annexation of Crimea and military attack on Ukraine. Note that Russia was on the peak of financial power, then the oil has reached the value of 110 dollars. per barrel; and there behind the Kremlin walls, imagining that it would be forever. The West, i.e. the former Russian allies on a military coalition of a hundred years ago (plus Germany, which managed to cool down from the militaristic ambitions and go to the camp of democracy), comes into a state of shock. The leaders of Western States hours trying to persuade BB to be careful and not to draw the world into an adventure. The Kremlin dictator is hard and not flexible: going to fight, we can’t just leave our Orthodox Russian nation to the shame and the mercy of the Nazis, dill, Bandera. Note, external motivation is exactly the same as a hundred years ago. What lies deeper in this explanation of the war is the subject of a separate study, we will limit ourselves to the facts. So, the curve again, as a hundred years ago, skyrocketing the popularity of the leader rolls over, the country plunged into a state of euphoria, there is an explosion of chauvinism and hatred splashing fountain in all directions. Perhaps March 18, 2014 (acceptance into the fold of Russia of the prodigal son – “the island of Crimea”) is a direct analogue of the 2 August 1914 from the point of view of takeoff of people’s love for the leader. Direct massive military actions of the Russian Federation begins literally in the same number of August, like a hundred years ago, when Russia attacked Germany with two armies of Samsonov and Rennenkampf. The further course of events we all know, like what happened in 2014-2015
Of course, the direct analogy there. Today the war is not declared, are conducted in a hybrid way, and the coalition are different. Russia’s allies, like the mind of a Russian leader of the early twentieth century, more than strange – incident criminal Assad regime, Shiite Iran coming out of sanctions, terrorist Hezbollah… It’s more virtual forces, to have someone to rely on, at least mentally. But the enemy is real and tangible: the civilized world plus a massive coalition of Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia. However, the collective enemy of Russia in the spirit of hybrid warfare in its disposition is not recognized, and operates a sophisticated, economic means, legal procedures, forcing down the price of oil and intercepting the initiative in propaganda. But, just in case, and resumes its military power, which at times surpasses all that Russia has. It’s only Russia fell into the black hole of history, and the Kremlin ruler decided to turn back the clock of history, imagines himself the successor of Tsar Nicholas and the West in the Imperial games have long been not playing, and to share in the military coalition to fight is not going to. But if Moscow began to break the established world order, it is necessary to respond adequately…
The experience of the First world war has opened several military and political truths. First, in a protracted global conflict to lose the Imperial anti-democratic reaction – in the terminology of the early twentieth century) modes, at the same time a monarchy or dictatorship are likely to fall; and second, to win those who have more resources, healthier economy, and is not in the ring of the blockade. So, Germany a hundred years ago were not allowed into their territory of the enemy, but the Empire fell, and the Germans appointed the main culprits of the war. The country was virtually under siege by land and sea, and could no longer continue military action for economic reasons. All three empires ceased to exist not because of military defeats, but because of the internal revolutionary explosions that preceded the collapse of the economy and the growing socio-political crisis. Error Nicholas, apparently, was the fact that he, like the vast majority of Russians believed that the war would be brief and victorious, nobody was going to enter, for example, in the winter in a state of trench warfare. Officers, for example, debated whether to take a ceremonial uniforms or they then send directly to Berlin? PR on the theme of Serbian king liked the Patriotic enthusiasm and forgetting the shameful defeat from Japan – definitely a plus! And to predict the consequences, he could not because of intellectual limitations. But the ugly war dragged on, and started to trigger the tunnel effect, when it is impossible neither to stop nor to turn back, and ahead – the abyss. Something similar we see today. Putin wanted a series of small and victorious war, in which he is constantly expanding his Empire, he bit off piece by piece, as it began doing in August 2008 in Georgia, but fell into the trap that myself and made. BB “hit” on protracted war not with Ukraine, but against the world community, whose resources exceed by orders of magnitude. Didn’t listen to Obama, Merkel, Hollande, who politely but persistently and patiently advised: don’t do it, friend Volodya, stop, look at the calendar – on the street twenty-first century, and decent people do not behave, and even more so – because then it will be worse. Not listened to them, the Eastern king, intoxicated by their own power and love of his subjects.
Here has passed and 2015, It roughly corresponds to the schedule of the First world war. Russia is deeply involved in the global game, the war with Ukraine has not completed, and opened a new Syrian front. Actually fighting the US, Germany, France, Great Britain – all key players of the conflict a century ago. And, of course, they win. Today rockets and bombs fall on the long-suffering Syrian land, but things are moving like a kaleidoscope. What will happen in a month or two we do not know and there is still a chain of various military-political events. And what about Russia? Never before in its history in the era of the great wars, this was not observed: it is forced to act without major allies, and actually fights with the entire civilized world. But it is the choice of elite and brainwashed propaganda subjects, which have, however, to pay a higher price. The economic situation in Russia on the background of military actions, sanctions and falling energy prices rapidly deteriorating. In 2015, the first signs of discontent from below, according to rumors, the cracks ran to the monolith, the end of the year was marked by a strange sudden deaths of a number of senior officials and security forces. 2016, according to the logic of our schedule should be a year of bitterness and deep disappointment. And no “Brusilov breakthrough”, if they happen, will not rectify the situation. The people of Russia in their majority still believe in the happy star of the dictator that something will turn and something will come up. But how quickly the crowd turns love into hatred! Already the ancients knew this and sarcastically said, “sic transit gloria mundi”. The crowd will exalt to the skies and mercilessly trample. Serious analysts are looking at the future with pessimism, and you know – miracles do not happen, ahead of retribution for “Krymnash” and disregard for the world order. Russia is already in the tunnel and the light ahead is the fire of hell.
2017 should be marked by fateful events: the change of power in the Kremlin (really in February-March?), economic collapse, perhaps the riots and radicalization of the political sphere. 2018 – the beginning of a big chaos. Modern Russia charged inner aggression that comes from the depths of the “mysterious Russian soul”. Putin skillfully canalized suffusing society hatred for the Empire, pitting the Russians on Chechens, Georgians, Estonians, poles, Ukrainians, Moldavians, Turks, Americans. This trick he still managed, but when the window of opportunity for military operations outside the Empire will close, the members of the Orthodox community, are you going to be at each other’s throats. We won’t dream, who will fight with anyone, they are there, and there’s already: Imperials, religious fanatics, Nazis and skinheads, re-enactors-Girkin, ethnic gangs, veterans all, Putin’s wars, Motorola, Givi, Cossacks, defenders of the newest republics in Russia (totalnie), etc. they already Have training, weapons, and desire someone “soak the toilet”. The war in the Donbass is Russia still backfire even if it happens after the Putin era.
Of course, this all happens if the numerology connected with the invisible higher laws, the meaning of which social scientists still really don’t understand. But there may be other scenarios. In recent years, the mind often comes to the plot of “Moscow 2042” the great seer Vladimir Voinovich (by the way, the book was written in 1986). Already, many are beginning to come true from the satirical (at first glance) the forecast of the writer. What’s Voinovich? The so-called Masquerain headed by an ex-KGB officer, who has ruled forever, the country is cut off from the world, the population is degraded and has fallen into post-Communist insanity… And the most interesting – “ring of hate” that surround the proud capital of the whole world (so they think more about themselves thanks to the propaganda). But these rings are already there! And the Russian government does a lot for their consolidation. Probably, the first ring has formed in modern Russia immediately outside the circumference of the ring road (at Voinovich about and describes – “the inner ring”). Yes, Muscovites do not like even in Russia itself: jealous of what? Well, here we go: what’s the Urals, Siberia, the far East? What then to speak about the Caucasus, Georgia, Ukraine, and then come up a new “ring” – Poland, Lithuania, that Turkey put the Kremlin in operation… the Ring is compressed Russia, drilling in turn, the consciousness of the inhabitants of the white stone: the ordinary and no longer a young Muscovite, when it is drawn by the correspondent of the TV channel on the streets of the capital, through clenched teeth hissed: “bomb them all right”… If this alternative is implemented, Russia can be preserved for a number of years, and exist for a relatively long time, as a closed society, continent, warring with the rest of the world, literally on the script Mosquera. A less probable alternative, but the history knows different incidents. You can spend some time and North Korea.
And yet this analogy appears to be more like a rule than a mystical configuration. The pattern looks like. If You become at night on the rails and just stand and do nothing, then with high probability it will perish under the locomotive. If Moscow decided to repeat the scenario of the Imperial war, not removing them from their own tragic history elementary lessons, thus, it becomes rock rails and a heavy train will pass through her body, sweeping the pieces in all directions, like a hundred years ago. This will be of higher regularity. Note, other peoples lessons learned and such errors do not.
