Oil is still Russian goods number one. Fuel and energy complex provides a large part of domestic exports, which is compressed. Russia gets less money from the sale of raw materials. The only thing that grew noticeable, — the supply of wheat and vodka, but they can’t remove the country from oil dependence.
In diversification to refuse
Russia is still heavily dependent on oil and gas needle. This is evidenced by recent statistics of the Federal customs service (FCS).
From January to may, the country sold goods to 106.2 billion dollars. Compared to the same period last year, revenues have fallen more than 30 percent. The basis of the Russian export remains the fuel and energy — in the overall structure of supply in foreign countries they occupied 61.6 percent (it is fair to say that their share is declining: in the first five months of 2015, it was 68.2 per cent).
Russia increases volumes of raw materials, which is chasing the border, but gets him less money. Case fluctuations of the ruble. So, all of the fuel and energy goods brought almost 40 percent less funding than the year before. Another disturbing point: the growing physical volume of supplies of natural resources (oil, 4.5%, gas — by 16.2%, coal — by 4.7%) and at the same time decreases the export of products of processing of diesel fuel (11.3 per cent) and other liquid fuel (21.8 percent).
The main domestic product — oil — brought 26.1 billion; income dropped in half. Natural gas gave 12.9 billion dollars — 31 percent less than in January-may of 2015.
“All countries export those goods which they possess in abundance. On the other hand, specialization in commodity exports creates a number of systemic risks in the economy”, — explained in an interview with “Tape.<url>” head of the Department of international trade, Higher school of corporate governance Ranhigs under the President of Russia Vladimir Salamatov. The key risk is a slowdown in manufacturing and high-tech industries, and the predominance of imported goods over domestic goods in the structure of domestic consumption poses a threat to national economic security, he said.
Bread months
At the same time, in some business segments, Russia has significantly strengthened its position. For example, significantly increased wheat exports — both in monetary and in physical terms. By may, it sold 8.3 million tons for $ 1.5 billion. For comparison: a year earlier was able to realize only 4.3 million tons over 981 million dollars.
To diversify the Russian economy, the growth of grain supplies and the development of the agricultural industry in General — major events. Bloomberg reported in may that the share of agriculture in Russia’s GDP peaked in 2003 to 4.4 percent.
Vladimir Salamatov of the Ranepa also reports that in the first quarter of 2016 in Russia increased pork production (up 9.1 percent compared to the first quarter of 2015) and birds (plus 7.4 per cent), milk (1.2 percent) and eggs (4.2 percent). In other words, agro-industrial complex of Russia is currently actively developing. “In terms of food embargo this development will aim at covering primarily domestic food needs, explains the expert — then you can expect an increase in export supply of agricultural products”.
The Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev predicted Russia’s status as a global agricultural leader, and his prophecy finally came true: in the last year, the country sold a record 33,9 million tons of grain (the grain, not just wheat), overtaking the United States and Canada. Colleague speaker of the Ministry Alexander Tkachev sure that we can fight for the leadership in the world market of macaroni. In particular, it is planned to start exporting spaghetti.
For five months of the wheat export of Russia earned half a billion dollars
Photo: Eduard Korniyenko / Reuters
On the other hand, the contribution of farmers in GDP remains even record, but small. The share of wheat in exports is growing rapidly, but is still negligible — 1.4% (this should be compared to oil and gas). Therefore to speak about any scrapping or recovery from “Dutch disease” is not necessary, despite the fact that the Ministry of Finance assured the deliverance of Russia from the oil curse.
In addition to wheat significantly increased foreign supply of vodka. This year Russia has sold 720,9 thousand dal. Exports in natural terms grew by one-third in cash — has not changed. Vodka brought the country $ 39 million — a total of 900 thousand dollars more than the previous year.
Almost all other products there is a decline.
True friends of Russia
Despite the political uncertainty in relations with Western countries, the structure of Russian trade does not undergo major changes. The exchange of goods between Russia and other countries is steadily declining.
A major economic partner remains the European Union. In the Russian trade turnover (170,8 billion) the EU is 43.9 per cent (about $ 75 billion).
The volume of trade with China amounted to 22.7 billion dollars (minus 9.6 per cent per year), with Germany — $ 15 billion (down 22.6 percent), Netherlands — 12.7 billion (down 35.1 percent), with Italy — $ 7.4 billion (a decrease by almost half), USA — 7 billion (down 21.8 percent), Turkey — 6.1 billion (down 42.8%).
What we buy
In five months, Russia has purchased goods to 64,6 billion dollars. Thus, the trade balance (the difference between bought and sold) amounted to 41.5 billion dollars — the country still trades in their favor. However, in comparison with January-may of last year has decreased almost twice — to $ 38.8 billion.
The fuel and energy sector remains the main provider of export products from Russia
Photo: Oleg Popov / Reuters
Most of all, Russia buys machinery and equipment (46.9 percent in the import structure) — they had spent 28.5 billion dollars, which is comparable to the proceeds from the sale of oil. Keeping the situation in which the country sells natural resources and purchased high-tech products.
Russia traditionally imports machines and accessories, electronics, optics, surface transport, railway locomotives, aircraft and ships, indicates chief analyst at Promsvyazbank Ekaterina Krylova: “Imports of machinery and equipment accounted for far abroad countries. From there Russia buys high-tech equipment”. The expert says that in some industries (oil and gas, agricultural, transport engineering), the share of imports reaches 100 percent.
In second place after the equipment — the purchase of food and beverages (share of 14.4 percent). Then there are the drugs they purchased for $ 2.5 billion. Next — cars ($2.2 billion) and clothing (1.8 billion).
With these figures it is clear that in addition to a variety of machines Russia acquires abroad the so-called consumer goods. According to the Federal customs service, its own full-fledged manufacturing such products until the build failed. Remains to sell oil and related products.
Ekaterina Krylova believes that today in Russia there is no product that could replace oil. “To change the export structure change is needed in the country, changing the model of economic development,” concludes the analyst.
