Economist Ruslan Grinberg — about why you should not rely on “solid” predictions
The IMF has again revised its Outlook on Russia, made three months earlier. If in January the Fund promised in 2016 the economic decline of 1.0%, and next year — an increase of 1,0%, it is now the IMF expects a contraction of the Russian economy this year to 1.8 percent, and in the future growth of 0.8%. But now, unfortunately, ours and the more foreign the forecasts of economic development to trust is not necessary.
Not so long ago I read a wonderful phrase: “the Best way to accurately predict the future is to create it”. To build more or less confident projections will be possible only after the government will begin to implement specific measures to stimulate our economy. Until then, any prediction is nothing more than guessing.
Today, our economy came to a standstill, investment demand has been sluggish, private consumption. Two thirds of the population survive, and one third does not want to buy anything, even if she has money.
To at least roughly assess the prospects of economic development, it is necessary to understand the actions of the state. Forecasts will have value only when the government decides what it intends to do.
As one of the prominent political figures of the last century, at what link in the chain we must grapple to pull out the whole chain. In my opinion, this link — state investments, mega projects, construction of Railways and roads, mass housing construction.
Now we signed a Memorandum with China on strengthening the regional industrial and investment cooperation in the far East. This is good news. Cooperation with China, and with other investors, should be developed. But it is necessary to watch, that between us and our partners was maintained equal relations.
Of course, you need to invest in a joint construction of high-speed railway from Asia to Europe, which goes through Russia, more precisely, on its southern areas. But we need to build and branch high-speed railway, which will take place on 25-26 territory of our regions and provinces. This does not exclude our participation in the construction of the southern highway, but does not remove the needs in North branch.
The construction of the highways is a separate issue. We have a situation catastrophic. In 1990-ies in China were built 180 thousand km of motorways. And we have the total length of built roads is 15 thousand km.
We have a severe shortage of good roads between cities, between regions. But they, figuratively speaking, “pull together” space.
And when the space is contracted, there are many possibilities, arise positive multiplier effects. There are new businesses that would create favorable conditions for active import substitution. In order to get rid of humiliating dependence on the oil price, have to deal with the traffic. Developed transport infrastructure would allow up to eight times faster to transport goods from Asia to Europe and Vice versa.
Opportunities to stimulate the economy we have, and their not so little as it may seem.
We need to use the spatial potential of the country and to begin to implement large-scale tasks. Of course, in such large-scale undertakings there are always risks of misuse of allocated funds, but the waiver of such projects deprive us of any hope to achieve sustainable economic growth.
The risks of inaction are higher than the risks from the formation and funding of a powerful mega-projects.
