Living abroad Russians will affect the results of the elections to the state Duma
Nearly two million Russians living abroad, can vote in the upcoming elections. But how to distribute their votes? The political consultants are confident that, for example, voters from the U.S. over opposition, and in Asian countries are home to the voters-statists. .<url>” I learned how to vote for citizens abroad and to whom it will be profitable.
Active and consolidated
“It could be people who think completely different,” talked about compatriots being far from the homeland, CEC member and former constitutional court judge Boris Ebzeev. In his opinion, the decision to “scatter” of voters across the country was right — in September last year, the Central election Commission, claiming cuts of constituencies for elections to the state Duma, have allocated “foreign Russians” among 75 districts. About 15 districts, the number has reached 10 percent of the number of ordinary, “domestic” voters.
In total, according to the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Russia, on the territory of the 147 countries at the consular office there are about 1.9 million Russians who have active suffrage. It’s either the immigrants who retained Russian citizenship, or temporarily residing in the territory of other countries citizens of Russia. Many of them are students, employees of international organizations, consular officers, employees of embassies and members of their families.
Almost all of them are extremely active in the elections. According to the Vice-President of the Russian Association of political consultants (RPC) Andrei Maximov, the experience of past elections shows that on foreign stations the turnout is sometimes as high as 90 percent, because bored at home people are quite serious about the opportunity every five years to vote in Federal elections. For comparison, the total turnout in the Duma elections in 2011 was just over 60 percent. In addition, the Russian Diaspora abroad is fairly well consolidated, the expert said.
Maksimov sure that the voices of compatriots abroad can be a decisive factor for the victory of the candidate, if he is serious about his campaign and mobilizing all possible resources, not lazy ride on the emigrant clubs and actively communicate with the communities in social networks. This is especially true for districts where the result will extend 10 or more candidates: if a solidary Diaspora vote — her opinion will be the decisive factor in favor of one of the politicians in the district, even if the “internal” vote, he gets 5 percent.
Overseas Apple
Fears of a CEC member ebzeeva about what foreign voters to think “very differently”, was confirmed by the distribution of votes in the election. “So, citizens of the USA and Canada are more inclined to liberal preferences in the last elections in the state Duma, they are more willing to vote for Yabloko than for the “United Russia”, so it can be assumed that some of the liberal politicians chose the site not excluding these facts,” — said Maximov.
Russian Londoners were different protests in the last election, experts remind. About 10 thousand voters from the UK this time assigned to the Tomsk district, which “United Russia” decided in these elections to avoid. But there appeared the “Yabloko” Vasily Eremin, which protest is the way.
Several prominent opposition figures put forward in other territories with similar electoral characteristics. For example, they have chosen the capital district Medvedkovsky: there stands the leader of the Green party, former Deputy head of Rosprirodnadzor Oleg Mitvol and the “Apple” is a human rights activist and social activist Andrei Babushkin.
In Tushino district of Moscow “Yabloko” is the disgraced Deputy of the state Duma Dmitry Gudkov, expelled at the time from the party “Fair Russia”.
For both districts, drew the attention of Andrei Maximov assigned significant numbers of Russian Diaspora in the United States. For example, new York will vote almost 35 thousand voters Medvedevskogo County and three thousands Tushino. More than 20 thousands of men of Tushino” will take part in Russian elections, while in Washington.
Photo: @gudkovd
“The Diaspora is such a nice additional element, — said Tape.ru” Dmitry Gudkov. — There (in new York and Washington — approx. “Of the tape.<url>”) always won by the Democrats, but the problem is the low turnout. We will work hard to mobilize people. I have established headquarters in new York and Washington, I recently went there, met with the Diaspora”.
In the footsteps of Marx
However, the West does not mean uniquely liberal attitude, said the Chairman of the Board of Fund “the Petersburg policy” Leonid Davidov. He warns against premature predictions about the votes of Russians living in the US and London: “the Opposition, apparently, expect that these voters will be democratic, but I’m absolutely not sure. I have not seen actual research on this, but since 2011 a lot has happened. In any case, politicians will not be able to travel only in their opposition”.
Preferences “overseas Russians” in General are heterogeneous, it is noted in RPC, and can play into the hands of various parties. For example, residents of Western Europe are traditionally in favour of not liberals, and social Democrats. It might be considered by some members of the party “Fair Russia”. The current state Duma Deputy Galina Nemtseva moved in the Ob district of the Tomsk region, where they will vote more than 35 thousand Russians living in Hamburg. And the Deputy of Legislative Assembly of St.-Petersburg Victor Lozhechko — in the Eastern district of the Northern capital, to which the CEC is attributed to 43.7 thousand residents of Western Germany.
In East Germany tangible support to the Communist party, said Maximov: here the strong position of Die Linke — the left socialist party, formed from the Marxist-Leninist Socialist unity party of Germany (SED). The Communists also loyal Diaspora of the traditional Communist countries, including China.
Statists on the situation
If we talk about diasporas, “best” party of power, here, noted in RPC, much depends on Russia’s relations with each individual state in a given historical moment. For example, if in 2007, there was a rush of international support for the “United Russia”, now some countries are not the best. “In the countries of the former USSR, which is now strong enough indictment of mood, such as Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, greater impact does not receive the “United Russia” a party of Patriotic orientation — “Rodina” and LDPR. They have a good chance”, — consider in Association.
Voting at a polling station in the Embassy of Russia in France
Photo: Galina Azoulay / “Kommersant”
Loyal to the current government will be compatriots living in Central Asia, experts believe. For example, an increase in votes in favor of the EP can be expected in the Kaliningrad region, which is attributed to 15.9 thousand of Russians from Tajikistan.
There are States where in the last Duma election was observed the diversity of opinions: support the EP here and the Communist party, and Yabloko. Such a motley and not very predictable preferences known including and Israel, where up to 150 thousand Russians-voters, is one of the largest voters in the Diaspora.
In some districts the “foreign Russians” of different countries balance each other. In Ivanovo single-mandate district in a strong liberal Diaspora in Canada — it has a population of 20.3 thousand people. They moved the “Yabloko” Danila Budaev, Chairman of the regional branch of the party. However, by the same constituency, the CEC attributed approximately the same number of Russian citizens living in Turkmenistan, and this, according to experts, will serve as a countervailing factor, as voting in this country is more in favor of the ruling party.
Nevertheless, experts urge not to rely solely on territorial affiliation and to remember the events in the world. “We don’t know what else will happen until September, emphasizes the political scientist Leonid Davydov. But it is obvious that the growth of the terrorist threat, including the recent terrorist attack in nice, the situation in Turkey — all this plays into the hands of statists”.
