The money, which no one should have no independent value: at best, they provide an opportunity to buy them for “real money” on a steady course.
For more than 70 years, the world lives with a single global currency — us dollar. Before I developed this system, similar was the value of the British pound. And as these States at the time was the largest global players, the notion that widely used in international payments and reserve currency — a sign of great power, ingrained in the minds of the Russian political elite. It is believed, apparently, that this status allows you to achieve the “highest degree” of sovereignty, and therefore talk about the fact that the ruble should become a reserve currency, are long overdue.
At one time it was thought that this status will come by itself, if the ruble will become a freely convertible currency. Vladimir Putin address to the Federal Assembly in 2003, set the goal — “achieving full convertibility of the ruble convertibility, not only internal but also external; not only on current but also on capital operations”, promised the citizens that “traveling abroad, it is enough [to be] to bring your passport and Russian rubles.” To some extent, the result achieved today in most European capitals, it is possible to change roubles for local currency (the exchange rate is not very attractive, but still). However, in cashless transactions, the ruble remains marginal currency: at the end of 2015 in the Forex market he acted as one of the parties only 1.6% of the transaction (quite a bit behind… SEK), while in American and canadian dollars, Euro, British pound, Swiss franc and the yen (i.e. the currency of the main market economies) had 169,0% — 100 times more (cumulative in the statistics of foreign exchange transactions is 200%, not 100%).
Later, the officials came to believe that the ruble will be in demand if it will be possible to buy something, and the idea of sale of main Russian exports in rubles. The idea is pretty strange: you also need to explain why the U.S., in the country, providing 7.9% of global exports, is 64.0% in the reserves of Central banks and currency of Russia, which is the maximum (2013) accounted for 3.1 percent of global exports, almost none of the Central bankers (at least outside the former Soviet Union) are unknown, as China’s currency, although he since 2009 is the largest exporter in the world and exceeds the United States on this figure is almost 1.5 times. And yet from time to time again the aim is to go into the oil trade into rubles.
In my opinion, the problem lies elsewhere. The ruble is impossible to make a world currency through the building nominated in this export-import operations. If the export of Russian goods will be resolved to “let go” in the wrong hands for rubles, will change only the subject of conversion: today the foreign buyer pays Russian companies dollars or euros, and she is already selling the proceeds on the stock exchange for rubles, tomorrow, the foreign counterparty will lead to the account of his Russian “daughter” of currency, sell it for rubles and will transfer them to Russian oil companies. No one will accumulate rubles, even for a few days, not to form the reserves of the national Bank. The reason for the high demand for the currencies of the developed countries is not that they have a lot of goods, for which these currencies are sold, but the fact that they made the largest number of debts.
On the face of the American dollar it is written: “This note is a legal tender for all debts, public and private”. When the economic crisis begins, even if, as in 2008, launched in the US, the dollar strengthened: all borrowers of the world seek to get out of risky assets into the dollar, to be able to pay off the loans. It is the debt denominated in a particular currency, making it valuable because it generates a steady demand for it. Central banks therefore form the reserves in dollars and euros that they are borrowing corporations and banks in their own countries, and if necessary the Central Bank can act as “lender of last resort”. Therefore, the popularity of a particular reserve currency is determined by only two factors: the scope of attracting private sector funds, and frequency of announcement of defaults on government obligations. The money, which no one should have no independent value: at best, they provide an opportunity to buy them for “real money” on a steady course.
Ideas
10.10.2016 09:01
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If you look at the situation from this angle, it appears that Russia in recent years did everything that the ruble become a reserve currency. Russian companies, and recently the government occupy in the world markets does not in rubles. Domestic borrowing (in the market which can play and foreign investors, as it happened on the eve of 1998) today: if on January 1, 1998 the nominal value of circulating t-bills amounted to 272 trillion rubles (non-denominated), or 14% of GDP, now the market is not enough to 5.9 trillion rubles, or 7% of GDP. Russian companies and banks find more and more exotic types of raising money by floating bonds even in yuan, but the issue is traded on the international bond market in rubles is not practiced. Meanwhile, the relevant operation is a well-established practice indicating including on the self-esteem of the authorities of a particular country. The currency in which placed sovereign bonds, such as Poland or the Czech Republic? 75% and 84%, respectively, in PLN and CZK, equivalent to €155,9 billion and €51,1 billion In what is Brazil? In the reals: they are nominated by 74% of the sovereign debt of the country, despite the fact that in Latin America the dollar has always been considered the only reliable currency. Almost the same situation in South Africa, where the bulk of external debt is denominated in Rand. And why the share of Euro in international reserves for 2009 was 1.8 times more than the combined share of the German mark and French franc in 1998 if not for the fact that in 10 years the Euro has been nominated, the majority of new corporate bonds? And only “stand up from knees” Russia is not trying to use a decade of a stable ruble, to form the international market of rouble bonds.
I did not call to turn the ruble into a “new dollar”. It’s impossible, but if to take into account the economic views of presidential advisors, even dangerous: it is only obvious threat of a catastrophic depreciation of the national currency holds the leadership of the country from increasing emissions. I just want to draw attention to those vain hopes, for the obvious substitution of concepts and theoretical level at which there is discussion of the “convertible ruble” — discussion unprofessional and affect the issue which I personally don’t see any need to…
