8 November will be the elections of President of the United States. On this day the inhabitants of the country needs to address the key question of inter-agenda: who they wish to see at the head of the nation over the next four years. However, the final decision will be taken only at a meeting of the electoral College, which will take place on December 19. Who are the “people’s electors,” and why in the “most democratic country in the world” operates is not the most fair election system, read the material life.
It should be noted that the principle of election of the President of the United States are pretty seriously different from the traditional ideas about the electoral process. Unlike most countries, including Russia, where every citizen directly elects the President, and a number of subordinate officials in the United States operates an indirect system in which the final decision about who will govern the country, adopt delegated from each state, the electors nominated by the party whose candidate received the majority of the voters of a state. In the same system, for example, choose presidents in Finland and Estonia, although most political experts and analysts recognize two-level system of electoral echo of the past.
Traditionally, in the conventional sense during the election campaign in the United States is fighting two candidates: a Republican and a Democrat. However, it is not so. Among the participants there are representatives of smaller parties (Green, libertarian, Constitutional and others) and independent candidates. In this election against Hillary Clinton from the Democrats, and Donald trump from the Republican candidates put Gary Johnson (libertarian party), Jill Stein (green Party), Darrell castle (Constitution party) and Evan McMullin (independent candidate from Utah).
But as practice shows, the representatives of small parties rarely make a serious competition of the strongest representatives of the American “political machines”. You can verify this by examining a map of the distribution of votes among party candidates for the last 50 years.
The difficulty recalculation
The complicated two-tier system of presidential elections offered even the founding fathers of the United States, which played a key role in the development of the American state, in the distant 1787. Since then, elections in the United States are held in several stages.
First, each party chooses a certain number of representatives of the “Board of electors” from each state. Each state represented by two senators, and representatives of all electoral districts of this state, the number of which depends on the number of members of the house of representatives. Together, these people form a temporary body called the electoral College. It consists of 538: 435 representatives electoral districts, and 100 senators from all 50 States and three from Washington.
Then, the day of universal suffrage, which always occurs on the second Tuesday of November, people exercise their right to vote by voting for a particular candidate. The final decision about who will lead the United States through a direct vote receives the electoral College after 41 days after national elections. If electoral votes are equally divided, identify the winner of the vote in the House of representatives, as stipulated in the 12th amendment to the U.S. Constitution. To win you need to get the votes of the representatives of 26 States.
Most often, the scales tilt in favor of the candidate that received the most votes in both population and members of the electoral College. But, by the way, it’s not necessary: none of the Federal law no such requirements.
Americans often say they are the world democracy and radical political reforms, but in fact the electors can in a small circle to decide who should be the next leader of the United States, while paying, under US law, a maximum fine of just one thousand dollars.
For example, during the widely debated 2000 election Vice President al Gore ahead of Texas Governor George Bush by 500 thousand votes by results of calculation of the total number of votes, but lost in the electoral College because of the resulting in Florida after a repeated vote recount advantage votes. As a result of the recount and ensuing litigation 25 electors of Florida went to George Bush, and that led to the victory of the candidate of the Republicans.
How many “weigh” the voices of Americans?
Every voter should have the same incentive to Express their political will, but in the US it is not so. And this one is not the American democratic party the votes of residents of the United States “weigh” differently. What does it mean?
The fact that the number of electors allocated among the States is uneven and depends on how many constituencies a divided state. The States are divided into districts unevenly, have different area and number of inhabitants. The result is that in such a densely populated state like California (37 691 912 inhabitants), where a and represents the largest number of electors — 55, — in fact, one member of the Board of electors is the opinion of 685 307 residents of the state. For comparison, in the village of Wyoming, where residents are three electors, one have the opinion of only 386 189 Americans. It turns out that opinion, and political decision residents of different States in the US “weigh” differently.
Democrats vs Republicans
In America, traditionally, the States are divided into three categories: democratic, Republican and wavering. On this basis, based on public data from various authoritative research centres it is possible to assume, who will become the 45th President of the United States.
For example, historically that Arizona votes Republican. Only in 1996, when he was reelected, the current husband of democratic candidate Hillary Clinton — bill Clinton, state voted for the Democratic party. In that year, reelected President received 379 electoral votes to 159 against the Republican Bob Dole. This time, though, Arizona is not a swing state, residents have not yet decided their preferences. Perhaps, this time, Arizona will vote for the representative of the couple Clinton.
However, Minnesota and Massachusetts always vote for the Democratic party. Their preferences, they have not changed even when “against” them was all of America. For example, in 1972, when an incredible margin (the electoral College 520 to 17) was re-elected Republican Richard Nixon, the only Massachusetts voted for Democrat George McGovern. And Minnesota have opposed all in 1984 when he supported Walter Mandela, not a clear winner — Republican Ronald Reagan.
This time, according to the collected data from different sources, these States in 2016 will remain with the Democrats. We offer you to get acquainted with the preliminary results of the voting.
In the case of the American elections too early to draw conclusions. Even considering the division into groups, it is difficult to assume who the results of this presidential race will be the winner. One thing is clear — unconditional victory of one of the parties, as it was in 1972 and 1984, will not.
Cases unconditional victory was with the Democratic party. For example, in 1962, when came to power, Democrat Lyndon Johnson, for it gave their votes to 486 electors, against 52, who supported Barry Goldwater. Then the representative from the Democratic party chose after the mysterious murder of his fellow party member John Kennedy. Johnson was supported by only six traditional vote Republican States: Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.
They, together with other subsequently vote Republican States, voted against the current 44th President Barack Obama. In the last election in 2012 against Democrat voted 24 in the state. Most of them, according to preliminary data, is not going to “change” party. But two of the 24 still over to the Democrats. This oscillating Utah and North Carolina.
It so happened that in the United States traditionally divide the third group of States — swing states or of oscillating States. Also known as purple States. So is considered to be because of the colour obtained by mixing red (the symbol of the Republicans) and blue (Democrats).
The swing States are called the subjects of the American Federation, on the eve of elections in which there is approximately equal to the level of popularity of candidates from both major parties. The results of the election in swing States are usually the focus of attention, since they make a decisive contribution to the victory of one candidate. According to experts, in whose side will tip the scales these States will depend on who becomes the next President of the United States. According to the Senator from Maryland Jamie Raskin, 99% of the resources candidates devote to these States.
So far, all oscillating States, which defined their preferences in this election, vote Democrats. It is traditionally voting for the representatives from the Democratic party of Minnesota and Wisconsin, who at the last seven elections voted for Democrats.
Is not defined, and Ohio. This is the only state of America that over the past 50 years have never “made a mistake” in choosing a President. The last time the electors of this state made a mistake in 1960 when he was elected President, John Kennedy. Then Ohio voted for Republican Richard Nixon. Since then, Ohio has always voted for the winner.
In addition to the traditionally swing States undecided Arizona. However, they were always on the side of the Republicans.
Before the start of the nationwide election of the President of the United States have less than a day and life will follow up on this important international political event of the year. All the most relevant and timely material on the subject, readers will be able to find the relevant section.
Photo: © Anthony Behar/Sipa USA/East News
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