Only payments to investors, according to experts, can be spent over a trillion roubles
In July, the Central Bank has stepped up withdrawal of licenses from Russian banks. And at least 26 banks, of which 7 are in the top 50, are in the danger zone, with risk of loss of capital or liquidity. Such estimates on the basis of reporting of credit institutions has made rating Agency RAEX (Expert RA). As a result, experts predict the Agency, payments for insured events in 2016 can beat last year’s record and reach more than 557 billion. It was so much in may this year to do a cleansing of the banking market from dubious and unstable credit institutions. In total, the cleanup will cost more than 1.5 trillion rubles.
In July, the Central Bank revoked the licenses of 10 banks, of which 8 were insured (insurance indemnity will be paid to investors the Agency on insurance of contributions ASV). And this despite the fact that for the first six months of 2016, according to the calculations RAEX such cases was 44. This trend does not correspond to the expectations of the regulator that the pace of withdrawals will be slow. This was in February of this year, in particular, said first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Simanovsky (in charge of the oversight unit). He said that the regulator comes from the intention to achieve a situation where the expense of revoked licenses was not in the tens and units.
— For a certain amount of time we will get there, ” he said.
The first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank explained their expectations to the fact that most of the work on clearing the banking sector, the regulator has done in 2014-2015. Work will continue in 2016, he suggested, “probably something will remain for 2017”.
But 2016 may not be ordinary, and the record in terms of cost. As already noted, in the first half, estimated at RAEX, there were 44 insurance case amount of compensation 222,1 billion rubles. Last year over the same period has been revoked the licenses of 25 banks obligations to depositors, and the amount of payments amounted to 116.3 billion rubles. In the second half of 2015, which is characteristic for previous periods, the Central Bank intensified in the cleaning question. Happened 52 of the insured event and paid 326,7 billion rubles.
In 2016 there is a similar picture with increased actions of the Central Bank in the field of struggle with a questionable and unstable banks in the second half of the year. But, of course, no one can say how many credit institutions will remain without a license. According to the calculations RAEX, at least, more than two dozen credit institutions are teetering on the brink.
— 19 banks are in the “red zone”, therefore they have an increased risk of revocation of the license in the next six months due to the loss of capital or liquidity, — said the managing Director on Bank ratings Agency RAEX (Expert RA) Stanislav Volkov. — Most of the 19 banks with an increased risk of license revocation because of weak liquidity and / or capital is included in the second-third hundred by assets. The potential volume of DIA payments to depositors of these banks could reach about 90 billion rubles.
He emphasizes, however, that in its calculations, the Agency did not consider risks of breaches of the AML / CFT law (115-FZ). In addition, the Stanislav Volkov, there are seven more banks with the same risk (low liquidity or capital) among credit institutions in the top 50. However, he explains, in their case the regulator may choose not to license revocation, and sanitation. However, it costs money, often more expensive than a simple liquidation.
In RAEX also note the dependence of the rate of withdrawal of licenses from the state insurance Fund. In this regard, the Central Bank now appears larger than in the first half of 2016, the capacity to respond to questionable banks.
— This large insurance claims, as the withdrawal of licenses from Russia and the Bank “Interkommerts” have exhausted the Fund of ASV in the first quarter of 2016 (the volume of payments by these banks amounted to around 109 billion rubles), so in the second quarter of the pace of the withdrawal of licenses slowed licenses have responded mainly small banks. Now the Fund only has about 36 billion rubles (as of 1 August 2016), but the DIA has received from the Bank a loan in the amount of 299 billion roubles. After replenishment of the Fund, the Agency will be able to make payments for several large insurance cases (for banks from top-50 by assets), — says Stanislav Volkov.
It is on this forecasts are based RAEX about what this year can be delivered a record insurance payments, and hence the cost of Stripping the banking sector.
— If we assume that all 299 billion loan and another 36 billion of the Fund’s ACB will be fully spent on the payment of compensation in the second half of 2016, the volume of payments in 2016 will exceed payments 2015 (557 billion in 2016 against 443 billion in 2015), predicts Stanislav Volkov.
Senior consultant of consulting company Lighthouse Evgeniy Slavnov also notes that in the second half increased the number of revoked licenses. He, however, sees a clear correlation with the size of the insurance Fund, noting that most such decisions are made with an eye primarily on the social significance or other financial institutions.
— In addition, the Fund for the last several years has dropped to values close to zero, is always replenished as necessary. As for activation on withdrawal of licences in the second half of the year, it is quite possible that there exists some seasonality. It can therefore be expected to accelerate the pace of review in the second half of 2016, — the expert believes.
The Central Bank declined to comment, citing the fact that the Governor traditionally does not comment on operating banks and other calculations.
If the predictions RAEX implemented, the cleanup of the banking sector would cost more than 1.5 trillion rubles. In March of this year, experts have calculated for the “News” that already at that time the struggle of the Central Bank from dubious and unstable credit institutions cost the regulator approximately 1 trillion roubles.
