In the struggle with external threats do not forget the interior, said the journalist Gulnara Mammadzadeh.
What are the challenges to the South Caucasus in an interview to “Rosbalt” says CEO of AMI “news-Azerbaijan” Gulnara Mammadzadeh.
— In your opinion, why the recent increase in incidents of religious extremism?
— Analyzing the series of tragic events that have shaken several countries in July, namely the terrorist attacks in Turkey, France, Germany, the impression is often created that we are witnessing a war of the world centers of power and intelligence created by, or supported by various extremist or other organizations and groups.
The world is moving to global changes, and the main purpose of this process is extremely clear global policymakers who make crucial decisions. We now only appreciate the consequences and side effects from the approaching climax of the global plan, implemented through the fierce competition of meanings and resources. Religious extremism — not least event is a derivative of this process.
As for the actual “religious extremism”, it is not entirely clear that the perpetrators of certain terrorist acts under the guise of religious slogans, or goals, have nothing to do with faith and, by and large, with religion, and directly or indirectly serve certain political objectives. Another side of the issue: the unfair social environment throws hundreds of thousands of restless — they become human material in the hands of puppeteers, of whom those mold fanatics, terrorists, extremists etc.
— How sharp is today the problem in the Caucasus?
— In fact, the situation in the region is mixed. In the South Caucasus, particularly in Azerbaijan, the situation is maximally controlled. Here developed an effective system of monitoring and countering any attempts, including from outside or violate internal stability. Relatively recently once again tried to turn Azerbaijan into a chain of turbulent waves, activate Nardaran. This is a village outside Baku, where he preserved the traditional Shiite morals, not undergone changes in the post-Soviet period and created some grounds for religious influence with the southern external borders of the country. But the attempt “Nardaran rebellion” has failed — moreover, it enabled the authorities to start in this area of reform, which may have been necessary.
More alarming symptoms, as is commonly believed, is observed in the North Caucasus region. But, given the increase in the level of emergency response, including preventive measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation, the situation is not yet fatal manifestations.
And even the statistics on immigrants from the Caucasus, appearing in the lists of the Islamic state (is banned in Russia and several other countries as terrorist organizations — ed.) is an indicator of very sharp threat of the manifestations of the so-called “religious extremism.” But other accumulated soil to aggravate the situation in the region: the special services may drive the extremists of different spill, but it is fundamentally not change the situation as the main detonating point in society, creates social injustice.
— What can you say about the cooperation of Russia and Azerbaijan in the security sphere? How effective are the measures of counteraction?
— The last fifteen years, Russia had established a stable political dialogue with Azerbaijan, the relevant services of the two countries consistently keep a high level of cooperation and mutual assistance in the security sphere. Motivation complements the existence of common threats not only to regional, but also political stability. There are specific examples where the intelligence could be decisive in the modern history of the two States. This, incidentally, is one of the main arguments in favor of the fact that the activities of our security services clearly organized and quite effective. Even the example of Turkey, we can assume that erdoğan did not leave without warning.
— And as a whole has affected security in the region, the war in Syria?
War and security are mutually exclusive concepts, especially in the global world. And since the Syrian conflict were drawn such regional powers as Russia, Turkey, Iran, respectively, of the destructive faults went and neighboring areas.
After a certain localization of the situation in Syria, where foreign players have partially settled their positions, began the process of disintegration of Turkey. This is the next phase of global confrontation, so Turkey as a country with large scale of influence, for at least two years expect a very challenging event. That is somewhat premature to draw conclusions about the fact that Erdogan has won the victory over the coup and the forces that stand behind them. Turkey is just beginning, and that the state can save not only the inner balance but also the country’s role in the development of the Economic belt of the silk road, as well as the ability to negotiate with such power centers as China, and other countries involved in transnational projects with participation of Turkey. Not casually planned meeting of Erdogan with the leaders of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, or viewed the efforts of the Turkish President for normalization of relations with Russia and Iran. And even with Britain, which greatly differs from the United States. The world ceased to be safe, and for a long time.
— In your opinion, how much of a prospect of migration to the middle East instability in the Caucasus?
Middle East instability is too capacious a phenomenon that the Caucasus is unlikely in itself to accommodate. But is a possible activation of dangerous points, such for example, as the Karabakh conflict, which is able to close the arc of instability in the region. And a new Karabakh war should not be ruled out, given the subtext of recent events in Armenia.
— As reflected in Azerbaijan these months the Russian-Turkish confrontation?
— For Azerbaijan it was a difficult period, but Baku is not lost, as demonstrated diplomatic restraint and peace initiatives. The logic of the processes in the region is that the rollback of Moscow and Ankara from a situational confrontation and the restoration of relations was inevitable, and in Baku they understand even more than in Moscow itself. Azerbaijan has never faced a choice — Russia or Turkey. Baku was the only choice — to make every effort to normalize relations between the two countries, the conflict between them would be catastrophic for the region. This is confirmed by official statements at the level of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Russia and Turkey, emphasizing the special role of Azerbaijan in the reconciliation of the parties.
— What, in your opinion, the main risks to the Caucasus in the near future?
Risks for Transcaucasia, but no more and no less than other regions of the world. The trends of consolidation of power around a single center that we see today in Turkey, Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asian countries stemming from current and upcoming changes in the system of world architecture, which will be reformatted in the next 10 years. In many countries today we are witnessing the strengthening of the regimes of so-called “moderate dictatorship”. But there is another danger: concentrating on external threats, it is important not to compress the spring pressure on their companies to a critical point. Otherwise, the internal protests against the backdrop of the economic crisis, social polarization and political constraints can lead to counter challenges.
