After Russia’s withdrawal from the Treaty on nuclear disarmament, the security situation in the world could rapidly deteriorate. So says the former chief of staff of the Army of the Czech Republic and teacher of the Institute CEVRO Institut jiří šedivý. He also stated that various terrorist groups can now easily access the different nuclear technologies in destabilized countries. “It is certainly a move by Putin to strengthen his position. After all, in the traditional types of Russian weapons did not reach the level of the Alliance and likely want to compensate for this imbalance for its large nuclear Arsenal. From the Kremlin it is also a pretty clear message that he does not waive its sovereign international ambitions,” adds this well-known expert in the field of security.
Parlamentní listy: According to most news sites, the US has refused to negotiate with Russia on ceasefire in Syria. And although both sides finally closed the doors for the future meetings, could the incident mean another round of expansion of the Syrian conflict and a large destabilization of the situation in the middle East?
Jiří šedivý: Today, the contradictions between the United States and Russia in Syria is really quite deep. The United States officially declared an end to dialogue, and Russia has implemented this waiver in practice. The fact that the situation in Syria led to the end of the peace talks, is not surprising, considering how cruel air raids carried out, in the first place, aviation of Assad, but Russian forces also. War has its own peculiar rules and procedures of confrontation of the parties, and everything here has gone beyond. Nevertheless, I believe that further expanded the conflict will not be — rather, it will worsen his cruelty.
Even Putin’s opposition abroad recognizes that Russia has made great strides in diplomatic relations in the middle East. In Syria, the Russians managed to increase the number of its military bases, to come to terms with Turkey, a very good diplomatic and trade relations with Iran and even Israel. Whether this opinion to agree?
— Of course, with this we can agree: Russian diplomacy is on the rise. Despite all the disadvantages and negative aspects that it presents today in the world, Russia can very cleverly defend their national interests. And there is no doubt.
— How do you think whether after the presidential elections in the United States, this favorable situation for Russia to change? Will the United States, for example, seek to expand the range of economic sanctions against Russia?
— This will depend on several factors. First of all, from who wins the election. Donald trump is unpredictable and can promote a military solution, and may prefer an agreement with Putin on the division of spheres of interest according to some rules, as he recently hinted. Hillary Clinton, apparently, will continue its previous policy, so we can assume that the sanctions against Russia remain at least at the same level. But if the Kremlin continues its actions against Ukraine will not leave the territorial claims, Clinton would begin to expand different restrictions and sanctions.
— The Russians have delivered to Syria its effective air defense system SA-23, although supposedly it is unclear against whom it will be used against the opposition to Assad, or even against the United States that can interfere. What is your opinion about this?
— Perhaps not against the United States because they have posted there own missile systems. It is possible to use against the opposition to Assad, or against Turkey. But it is the Russians signed the agreement, and in addition we are talking about a member country of NATO, so that is unlikely. In addition, the conflict associated with the downed Russian fighter, has long been allowed. I think Putin is more of a game, a kind of strong gesture that none of the countries do not accidentally tried to go to Syria in defiance of Russian interests.
— The Russians, responding to the rejection of talks on Syria, has suspended the agreements on nuclear disarmament in 2000. Putin explained that the US actions against Russia unfriendly. The agreement gratefully welcomed by all the democratic governments of the world and considered it a confirmation of the completion of the cold war. So what might this mean? This is just another demonstrative gesture of Putin, or we are again leaps and bounds closer to cold war number two?
Is undoubtedly Putin’s move to strengthen its position. After all, in the traditional types of Russian weapons did not reach the level of the Alliance and likely want to compensate for this imbalance for its large nuclear Arsenal. From the Kremlin it is also a pretty clear message that he does not waive its sovereign international ambitions.
Some foreign commentators also suggest that the end of nuclear disarmament on hand various dangerous terrorist organizations, which is now supposedly easier to obtain access to nuclear weapons. Could this be true? Deteriorate if international security?
— I agree with them: international security will certainly deteriorate and various radical groups can easily obtain access to technologies on manufacture nuclear weapons or to himself. I’m talking primarily about the countries that have such tools or are developing them, and the government in these States is now destabilized. Now the world powers will have to treat this matter with great attention.
