The United States and Russia entered into an acute crisis that has no analogues in post-Soviet history. The reason for the failure of the Syrian settlement. On Wednesday night, the official U.S. state Department spokesman John Kirby, commenting on the resumption of hostilities in Syria, went far beyond diplomatic rhetoric.
He predicted that in the case of continued civil war in Syria “group of extremists” will inflict strikes on Russian cities (“Free press” wrote about it), and “Russia will continue to home soldiers in body bags and losing resources. Kirby also did not rule out the destruction of Russian planes, did not elaborate on the civilian or military question.
This statement was followed by a harsh response of the representative of the Ministry of defense of Russia Igor Konashenkov. According to him, “the statement John Kirby — the most explicit recognition of the American side that all allegedly leading a civil war in Syria, the opposition is controlled by the US international terrorist international”.
“We know how many in Syria, including in Aleppo province, is not advertised “experts” involved in operational planning and direction of operations of the militants”, said the Konashenkov.
Oil poured into the fire, and U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry. On Thursday at the Atlantic Council in Washington, he said that between Moscow and Washington, there is “huge distrust”. According to him, the Russian side believes that the U.S. is “serious about fighting “al-Nusra Dzhebhat”. In addition, the Secretary of state has described “widespread and inappropriate operations that are carried out by in Syria of Russian aircraft.
The Kremlin has preferred not to aggravate the situation. Press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov was limited by the fact that the statement called John Kirby “clumsy,” and promised that Russia will continue to help the Syrian military.
However, experts point out two key issues. The first is to change the current us administration to expect even limited cooperation with the United States is no longer necessary. Second, the relationship can deteriorate, and there is a risk of confrontation, including in the format of indirect military confrontation.
Indeed, Moscow and Washington can go to Syria to “war by proxy” — the exchange of blows, which side will apply forces that support the opposite side.
For some scenarios, Moscow and Washington may face in Syria, and what will these clashes?
— Russia and the United States became a hard clinch, — said the Deputy Director of the Tauride information-analytical center of RISS Sergey Ermakov.
— To inflame it even transcends the cold war. Yes, between the two countries there is no ideological confrontation. But this fact, oddly enough, makes the situation even more unpredictable and therefore more dangerous.
In Soviet times there was a clear separation of interests, and the number of sites where we competed with the Americans was limited. Now the ideological distinctions there, and sites where mutual interests intersect, a great many. While Moscow and Washington now stand on a fundamentally different positions. In the end, all these sites become sources of additional conflict.
For example, the words we and the Americans leading the fight against international terrorism. But in fact, exhibited Diametric approaches to the problem that clearly illustrates the situation in Syria.
Therefore, the scenarios indirect conflict with the United States may be the most tough and dramatic. This is confirmed by the words of Kirby. Such Frank statements Washington did even during the cold war. In fact, in the words of Kirby is a direct threat.
Clearly, our response to the threat will be that we now from his position will not waver. Although the Americans have in Syria to do anything.
“SP”: — what scenarios can act of the United States?
They can, for example, forces of Syrian militants from the ranks of the “moderate” opposition to inflict a painful blow to the Russian contingent.
To this end, States it is sufficient to adjust the supply to the rebels advanced weapons, take over the function of coordinating their action and sharing of intelligence information. In this case the situation when the rebels shot down the plane of Russian videoconferencing, may become more frequent.
In fact, the same thing the Americans did in Afghanistan. In fact, the subtext of the statement, Kirby was a threat to move the Afghan scenario on the Syrian soil. In Afghanistan, let me remind you, the Mujahideen, too, was a sharp transition from single-shot rifles of the Enfield sample 1853 to modern weapons, when the United States revised Afghan strategy.
In Syria, there are other options. allegedly erroneous impact of the international coalition forces led by the USA on Syrian government military base, which killed 63 soldiers. Immediately after the strike, the Syrian opposition took the offensive.
In my opinion, it was a warning to Russia. And now we need to be prepared for the fact that this scenario could be repeated.
“SP”: — on Thursday it became known that the White house is considering options for a more decisive and aggressive action in Syria if diplomatic efforts fail. This was reported by Reuters. According to him allegedly not ruled out a strike on a military air base the Syrian government, although it may lead to losses among the Russian military. The Syrian rebels could try to attack the air base in Hamima?
Can. However, such information suggests that the US is not confident in the success of the operation. If confidence was, on the basis of “Hamim” would have struck. But the potential for such an operation in the US, of course.
The Americans in Syria, let me remind you, a network control center, which coordinates the actions of the militants fighting against Bashar al-Assad. It is sufficient to supply militant groups with the necessary weapons, and include in their composition of American instructors and “Hamim” you can try to attack. These instructors can be trusted with modern weapons, allowing to shoot down our planes, and to assign to them the management of the operation on the ground.
In this case, units of the allies will play the role of providing forces to distract the Syrian government army, and to create the preconditions for the success of the operation.
The same pattern in Syria can be carried out other daring acts of sabotage.
“SP”: — Can we expect that now we will expand its military presence in Syria?
— It is clear, if now, after direct threats to the United States, we show weakness, the situation for us has changed at all sites, including negotiating platform and the working group on reconstruction of Syria. Therefore, no significant easing of US on our part, obviously, will not.
But with regard to the increase of our groups in Syria — this hardly makes sense. This decision will only deepen the conflict, and here the staff must carefully consider our real possibilities.
“SP”: — How long can I retain the tension in the relations of Russia-the United States will change if the trend after coming to the White house the new administration?
— The tension will not be exact, because the interests affected are already very serious, and many reference points are passed. We joined with the United States in severe conflict, and only because of the lack of ideological confrontation, it seems that it can play back.
I think this conflict trend for a long time, and the advent of the new administration in the United States it is not affected. From the foreign policy process has inertia, which largely determines the actions of the new President and his Cabinet. I do not exclude that any new US President will be put in conditions when it is not able dramatically now.
You have to understand: the US President is just the tip of the iceberg. Behind him is a team of players and groups that support it. Perhaps now is the escalation in Syria took to the new American leader did not depart in foreign policy from the “General line”.
In Syria, we are apparently faced with a new form of warfare, which in the West is called “war by proxy” — said lecturer of the Military University of the Ministry of defense, air force Colonel retired Vladimir Karyakin.
— In this case “on the ground” fighting the allies who are doing it in the interests of their sponsors. The United States in such allies including Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, plus the armed Syrian opposition, including groups that Russia considers a terrorist.
Russia in Syria based on the Syrian government troops and Hezbollah, which Iran supports.
All these allies “on the ground” sufficient to arm, train, and give them the correct advice on the planning of military operations. Wins in such a situation the one who has more resources and determination.
I think the hysterical US about the successes of the Syrian government forces, with the help of Russian troops, will continue. But it will move to the area of information-psychological war, and the operation to discredit Russia will take on a global scale. However, until direct military conflict between the US-Russia thing, I am sure, will not come.
We, in my opinion, the need now is to increase the grouping in Syria, and strongly discourage the shift of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
You have to understand: the regional conflict involved major oil and gas interests. Saudi Arabia and Qatar want to lay oil and gas pipelines across Syrian territory to Turkey, what’s stopping the Assad regime. And Turkey, in turn, wants to become an international energy hub, to dictate the terms of not only Europe, but also “Gazprom”. In this case, the EU will gas from the Arabian Peninsula, and the Russian monopolist will have to reduce prices.
In fact, the current war in Syria is in the interests of the monopolies. It is unlikely it will expand, but less fierce will not.
