Russia could gain a energy embargo and shut down the system of international payments SWIFT, if troops from Syria began to appear.
1. Factography
The night of 10 to 11 March. Urgent night meeting of Putin with Prime Minister, head of the Central Bank, the economic block of the government and Advisor on the economy.
March 10. – United States. The forensic medical examination has officially announced that the former information Minister Lesin, Russia died not as a result of a heart attack, and as a result blunt force trauma (blows to the head and throughout the body).
March 11. Security Council meeting, Putin and security Ministers.
March 11. Instructed the Central Bank to banks by March 15 to report the degree of readiness for inclusion in the National payment system, which by all means should earn since July 1,
March 11. Secretary of state Kerry in Saudi Arabia
March 12. The League of Arab States (voted against Iraq and Libya) has officially announced the Shiite Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
March 13. Foreign Minister Lavrov: “the Cooperation between Russia and USA on Syria has eliminated existing questions about the legitimacy of the actions of the American coalition in this Arab country…. the Syrian government has adopted such a formula… although the consent of Damascus has not been enshrined in any document” http://www.interfax.ru/world/498244
March 13. Foreign Minister Lavrov: “the United States proposed the federalization of Syria, but we rejected this option” (an interview with REN-TV)
March 13. The Syrian rebels have shot down a Syrian MIG-21 from MANPADS (previously during the whole conflict never happened)
March 14. The EU statement on the basic 5 points of relations with Russia in particular: sanctions will be lifted only after the Minsk-2 and the return of the Crimea, the EU should become energy independent from Russia.
March 14. The statement of the Minister of defence of Poland, that the Smolensk plane crash which killed almost the entire leadership of Poland including the President should be considered a terrorist attack
14. Energy Minister Novak in a meeting in Tehran have not succeeded Iran to increase production
March 14. Putin gave the order on March 15 to begin the withdrawal
March 15. The opening of peace talks on Syria under UN auspices in Geneva involving Russia, the USA, representatives of Damascus and Syrian opposition.
March 15. 392 member of Congress voted for the requirement to condemn Assad as a war criminal, and supported the establishment of the military Tribunal
March 15. U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry will cause next week’s visit to Moscow, which calculates, in particular, to meet the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
March 17. MO: the majority of RuAF aircraft will be withdrawn from Syria within the next 2-3 days.
2. The interpretation of the facts
To negotiate trumps and spread them face off.
The opposition a trump card for the negotiations in Geneva posted on March 13, – shooting down the MIG-21 showed that she now has MANPADS.
Russia sharply weakened the position of Damascus began withdrawal of its troops from Syria on the first day of negotiations in Geneva.
Russia has been weakened by Damascus, a statement from Lavrov on March 13 that the U.S.-led military coalition in Syria and. b legitimate. this legitimacy is acknowledged by Damascus.
But at the same time on the same day as the legitimization of the coalition of States that matter – stated that the option of federalization of Syria rejected (i.e. was the auction where one was sold for more).
3. Assumptions.
March 10 – announcing the new circumstances of the death of Lesina, who had obviously been killed, Washington threatens Moscow with a new “business of Litvinenko” – but now in the USA. In addition to the actual cause of Litvinenko in London.
On the night of 10 into 11 March, Putin suddenly gathers a meeting of all responsible for the economy of Russia – the Prime Minister, the head of the Central Bank, Ministers, and his economic Advisor.
I.e. the night of 10 to 11 March – cropped – economic issue so important that they promptly (at night!) rushed to engage the President, the Prime Minister, the head of the Central Bank and the entire economic bloc of the Russian government.
After a few hours, it is necessary an urgent meeting of the Security Council of Russia where Putin meets with the power Ministers. I.e. this question is not only economic but also “power” measurement.
The night – time standard of communication with the United States, where at this time the working day starts.
I.e., the United States received some information – unexpected – which made all Russian authorities to urgently meet and to draft a decision on the withdrawal of troops from Syria. Moreover, the information (basic) economic order.
What was that information makes it clear urgently sent in the morning of 11 March, the order of the Central Bank to all banks by the evening of Monday 14 March to report on work readiness to the National payment system, which the blood from the nose but have to earn from 1 July. This is off SWIFT, which in the case of Iran was paired with a U.S. embargo and the EU on imports of Iranian oil and gas.
And on Saturday, March 12 begins a long visit of Secretary Kerry to Saudi Arabia.
On Monday 14 March EU announces 5 basic points of building relations with Russia, the main of which is energy independence from Russia.
Conclusion – in the evening of 10 March, Putin called Obama and said that if Russia did not immediately withdraw from Syria, against it there is an embargo on Iranian type (to Saudi Arabia), and is a joint EU position (EU statement).
SUMMARY.
If Russia managed to barter for a waiver of the embargo on Syria is a huge incredible achievement. The embargo itself has indicated it would be brought to bear – don’t be Syria – in the Donbas and Crimea. Even if this deferral and this threat will apply again – it is tangible, expressed in tens of billions of dollars – a win on time.
The question is, what
is the embargo still marked
– if the threat worked once, why not again
– even though already and not Obama (to maintain politeness).
Why the embargo is marked now:
– Iran has entered the market of oil (and threatened by July to increase production by another 900,000 barrels)
– US have collected huge reserves of oil and oil products
– spring has come and the need of the EU in Gaza has greatly declined
SUPPLEMENTARY from 17.03. As highlighted in blue two messages most of the aircraft will be withdrawn from Syria just in time for the arrival of Secretary of state Kerry in Moscow.
http://rusanalit.livejournal.com/1979814.html
