I believe that Turks and Russians playing the game (and possibly in different pockets, which is likely), and everyone knows it.
The current situation suits everyone. Basically, if you make the assumption that all the current international situation is a giant bluff. And the current issues at stake, in any other times would have been resolved by military means.
And therefore the scale of the bluff — appropriate. Now, imagine for a second that Turkey is bluffing in favor of NATO!
Then everything is logical, and while de facto Turkey’s legitimate to do what I like, but pricked. And for the United States anyway, who in this round wins. Raqqa is not taken, so Erdogan in Syria almost legally launched.
This game is not minute party. But because in the short term, Turkey solves all their problems, on this occasion. Returns the number of tourists (she doesn’t know yet that he’s not coming back), solves the problems with the Kurds once and for all (as it seems), gets the gas pipeline from Russia (who knows who it will be pump gas, and the pipe is a pipe), gets its Akkuyu. All this for the period until the situation is ripe.
Then Turkey may close the Straits and hit in the back (so she thinks). I can hardly believe that this week the state changed completely.
Turkey was never a partner of Russia. Turkey for many centuries was competing with Russia. And this will not change.
Erdogan President of Turkey. Erdogan is a Turk with a capital letter. Hard, cunning, stubborn.
But he has a weakness — arrogance and overconfidence. This also will catch it.
Now Putin and Erdogan realize that everyone is bluffing. Rather, each solves its problems. Erdogan in Syria, and Putin in the middle East. A little more, and will create a SYSTEM of regional players and adjusted the balance of interests so that they this party kept by themselves. Russia ideally you want only a General guide and the role of an arbitrator. If Iran is correct to play (not to press him the cover of the piano on the fingers), then it will balance the Turkey. And while Turkey creates confusion in the situation and solve their problems with the Kurds, there is time to look around and think about the future.
Erdogan understands that it is long, so will try and implement as much as possible in the shortest possible time. Will flatten the Kurds from today and then everywhere until the green light. And then for some time to come into play economic factors. Pipe, nuclear power station, the new tourist season, etc, until we for the Straits and the border with Syria to worry less will have. And then the war plan will show.
I am sure that Putin all of this song has long been in the mode of improvisation plays. Rather, his team.
And I have a suspicion that this party is not between Turkey and Russia and between the US and Russia. The Kurds and the Turks — just the pieces on this Board. The Kurds still science, not to change shoes on the go and kept the word.
All this delayed the party. And this, oddly enough, in the current context favored Turkey and Russia.
In operational terms this scenario, I think, in favor of the United States. In the strategic — I hope Russia knows when the hour will come, ready to present cards.
Author: ya-ne-kuril
