Watching regular shy from side to side of our Baltic neighbors, started to wonder why all looks so weird. Illogical. On the one hand, the constant cries about the occupation “in those days” and demonstration of blatant Russophobia, on the other — regular visits to Russia of representatives from different economic structures at different levels.
It turns out, politics is politics and business is business? Again illogical. Generally, if deeply not to dig, that logic is difficult to trace. But it is possible. And in fact, the logic is very simple and easy.
It all started yesterday. Start with a small excursion into history. Namely, in the thirties of the last century, when the dark Empire of the Soviet Union to subjugate the proud, but the small Baltic state and made their own republics.
Although about States I got excited, Yes. The same Lithuania, if anyone is interested, until the final hit in the Soviet Union changed its affiliation to independence and back as socks. Well, okay, it’s not about that.
And it’s about the fact that, as befits the Empire, the Soviet Union began to viciously oppress its new acquisitions. And as in these republics absolutely nothing minerals, and take was really nothing, then came industrialization. And have built dozens of industrial facilities in the Baltic territories.
Built and launched. And territories that for centuries were in the backyards and gardens of other empires, suddenly changed and began to develop. Developed…
Especially colourfully it was demonstrated and was presented after the Republic once again became independent. That is, after 1991. But to the question of independence, we will be back a little later, there are interesting AspectC arise.
Seems to be Yes, GDP per capita from 1993 to 2008 in the Baltic States rose as much as 3.6 times. If in dollars per capita, in Latvia 18 thousand, in Lithuania 19.5 thousand, in Estonia 22 thousand.
And in Russia it increased only in 2 times and amounted to 21.6 thousand the same dollars.
It seems to be logical and it all fits. “Released” state has started an independent path of development and demonstration of unprecedented economic growth.
However, let’s take a closer look, but by then the Baltic States have successfully developed and raised the best of GDP. It is clear that not at the expense of sprat and its powerful agriculture and industry. Own production was never the strong point of the Baltic States that they never spoke about it. Everything looked more modest than that in tons, in rubles or dollars.
And counter-sanctions last time from Russia very nice hit on the most GDP. The noise from Europe all remember? Polish apples, Moldovan plums, Belgian pears and so on? The Baltic States once the General background was not heard, although they supplied to Russia from 60 to 80 percent of its agricultural products.
In fact, the Baltic States, as in the saying about “A and B”, were sitting on the tube. Not really, of course, on the tube, but it looks like.
The lion’s share of the profits of the Baltic States now consisted of money received from Russia. That is, in fact, we have kept and still continue to support those who have diligently spits. A paradox, isn’t it?
And it’s simple. Nobody took the Baltic States ports. Luxurious, newly built after the war, ports on the Baltic sea. Through which passed a turnover of approximately 100 million tons, transshipment of which Russia paid up to $ 1 billion per year. Billion a little? Possible.
Depends on whose standards. And by the standards of the Baltic States — quite. Nearly 4.5% of the total GDP of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia combined for 1998. Then began the growth of the economy and we have, after 2000. Naturally, Russia’s exports also grew, and with it increased transshipment volumes in the Baltic ports.
At the end of 2014 this figure reached 144.8 million million tons, including:
Riga — 41,1 million tonnes.
Klaipeda — 36,4 mln. t.
Tallinn was 28.3 million tonnes.
Ventspils — 26,2 million tons.
Where sprats and milk, shock the recruiting budgets of the Baltic countries?
By the way, about the pipe. The pipe is. And sitting there Latvia. Huge and modern by the standards of the terminal in Ventspils. One of two in the USSR, where in addition to oil can be transported, for example, ammonia. Very expensive raw materials, by the way. The second terminal was in Odessa…
Pipe Ventspils allowed to pump more than 30 million tons of oil per year. Transshipment costs about 0.7 $ per barrel and barrels per ton of 7.33. Using a terrible weapon calculator, we get the figure of 154 million dollars. And then, according to conservative estimates.
By 2009, the total volume of foreign supplies of Russian oil has reached 246 million tons, of which through the Baltic ports in the year passed 140 million. This is the other classifications. This is $ 700 million. Weighty, given that virtually no extra costs Latvia on the construction is not carried. Solid freebies and cash flow from the “invaders”.
It is in other countries, poorer, these figures do not know. And that would be to Lavrov already lined up with a request for such occupation. Or to Putin.
Well, pipe. But once there is a port — so there and transshipment of sea containers. Even today, when active included St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad and Ust-Luga, the share of Latvia (Riga, Liepaja, Ventspils) account for 7.1% of our turnover container (392,7 thousand pieces), Lithuania (Klaipeda) — 6,5% (359,4 thousand pieces), Estonia (Tallinn) — 3,8% (208,8 thousand pieces).
For the transshipment of one container take from 180 to 230 USD for three portabledevices a year is more than $ 200 million a year.
But in addition to oil, coal and containers, the Baltic sea, Russia carries fertilizers, wood, metals. Until 2004, the Baltic States took place about 90% of Russian naval exports, providing countries not less than 18-19% of their total GDP. It still should be added and rail transit. It also costs money. For example, in 2006, only one took Estonia from Russia an average of 32 trains a day that only the port of Tallinn has brought about $117 million dollars annually.
And well settled, Yes?
And now after all this and being some constant cries about the “Soviet occupation”. Wow the occupation, the legacy of which gives 30% of the GDP, which boast in the Baltic States. And constantly talking about some sort of debt to Russia before the Baltics… Who owes whom?
We shouldn’t forget about jobs that provided them with Russia in the ports, the railway stations and so on.
Now gradually turn to the main thesis. And it sounds like this:
The freebie can not be eternal!
The more openly anti-Russian.
We are seeing today that happened with one country whose rulers imagined that sitting on the tube in Europe, they can dictate the terms. The result is obvious. The pipe is in a different place, and Europe will no longer Shine, because without the tube it is nothing in itself valuable today for Europe is not. Alas, but true.
And it all began not yesterday. Although both look. I think that the starting point of the beginning of the end of the Baltic monopolies became 15 June 2000, when the Ministry of transport of the Russian Federation has started implementation of the project of construction of port in Ust-Luga.
Although it is more correct to talk about the whole program, providing for advanced development of all Russian ports in the Baltic. Thanks to her, the cargo turnover of Ust-Luga increased from 0.8 million tons in 2004 to 10.3 million tons in 2009, and 87.9 million tons in 2015.
And by the end of 2014, the Russian ports already provided 35.9% of total container turnover at the Baltic sea, and this figure will only increase.
The use of its infrastructure without customs clearance and foreign exchange transactions more profitable for Russian exporters. And the key word here is private.
Yes, the legacy of the Soviet Union to some extent, we are given difficult, especially in such matters as transportation of goods through the territory of the former Soviet republics. But the process of transition started, and I’m sure in the end the transport window of the world” will become 100% Russian.
This refers to the fact that some forces in our country indiscriminately tell at all angles of the “country gas station”, in which nothing is built, in addition to tanks. It turns out, is built. And is constructed so that the need for the Baltic transit countries disappears every day more and more. Can do it ourselves.
The interaction with the Baltic States in transport matters has been steadily falling. – Rail transport — five times. For container — four. The volume of General cargo — three. Only 2015 transportation of oil and oil products through Baltic ports fell by 20.9%, coal by 36% and mineral fertilizers — by 3.4%. Yes, the mineral fertilizers, the Baltic States still retain the position. Still retain…
And if you look at the figures for open sources for the first quarter of 2016… Regarding the decrease in turnover in the Baltic ports, there is generally zrada. Or Peremoga, despite which side to look.
Riga — a decrease of 13.8%. Tallinn — a decline of 16.3 per cent.
Against this background, the decline in turnover becomes clear to the frequent visits of the representatives of economy sector in the Baltic countries.
Came to their senses… Otherwise you could not tell.
The first, oddly enough, realized in Estonia. There quickly calculated that by the end of this year in Tallinn port no work can be about 6 thousand people. And even up to 1.2 thousand have to cut on the railroad, of which at least 500 people in the next 2-3 months. Generally, in today’s reality of total unprofitability of the Railways of the Baltic States as a whole, is no longer in doubt. It is clear that passenger traffic never compensate for the money that “went” on Russian roads in the Russian ports.
Got game, and congratulations. Then what?
And then the sadness and longing in the style of Ukraine. Not worth the extra time to talk, but I say the Ukraine, the Baltic States all of these 20 years of independence, lived only thanks to the huge patience of Russia. And patience suddenly came to an end.
And it turned out that without the Ukrainian pipe we live, and without Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian ports. More difficult, of course, but the process is running. Yes, the situation was such that our party was forced to tolerate rudeness in response to the entreaties and exhortations in the style “Guys, let’s live together!”
Now let’s see what is going to happen, how will the process of development of the mighty economies of the Baltic States, without makeup on the part of Russia.
Of course, it’s not tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. I think that within 4-5 years, when the trade between Russia and the Baltic States will approach the level of zero, you will begin to observe transformations in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to their historical condition. Namely, the poor, the voiceless and, most annoying, useless khutorki the backyard. Don’t need anyone, neither Russia, nor USA, nor Europe.
And that is we will see, no doubt why that is not there. And, by the way, NATO troops, most likely from the Baltic States go. Themselves. Make sense for them to keep there will not be any. To protect Russia from the rusting rails and port cranes — a rather expensive and more than doubtful. And emptying useless territory, the inhabitants of which will twist a nut or something else in Europe.
The hangover from the end of Russian freebies will be heavy.
