The conflict in Syria could provoke a global war between Russia and the West
About half of Russians (48%) believe that the Syrian conflict could become a pretext to start world war III. While 52% of citizens approve of videoconferencing in Syria, and 49% in favour of continuing the policy of active intervention in the conflict. These are the findings of a recent survey conducted by the Levada center.
In recent weeks, the tensions between Russia and the West over the Syrian problem is growing. The concentration of power in the region is large. The Western coalition, Turkey, Russia, Iran. Each side of the Navy, air force, air defense. What would happen if the Russian VKS accidentally shot down an American plane? Or Vice versa — the Americans will destroy the Russian? Facts of dangerous rapprochement of planes were.
If we can find a compromise on Syria? The US continues to insist on withdrawal of Bashar al-Assad, Russia is not going to take it. On the other hand, the light could not converge a wedge on one particular person. Clearly the contradictions are much deeper. So, for the agreements Russia has to give up something big. What?
According to sociological research, the Russians understand the danger of the situation, but not willing to back down.
However, as considers the head of sociocultural research Levada center Alexei Levinson, this duality is characteristic of mass consciousness:
— The danger of a Third world war people perceived more than words. But if we talk about the mass consciousness, such logical contradictions exist in the entire period after the annexation of Crimea and the entire post-Yeltsin period. Mass consciousness is built on a contradiction. On the one hand, people want to see the country part of the civilized world, and on the other to maintain its “special path”. Russian public opinion are unable to get out of this contradiction in recent years.
Such examples are many. For example, over 80% approve of the President, but more than 40% have claim to his domestic policy.
— Our citizens do not fully understand what was going on in the world, but I feel that our policy in Syria is correct, — says the leading expert of the Center for military-political research of the MGIMO Mikhail Alexandrov.
— Primitive to think that Russia and the West quarreled over Syria. Our liberal society loves to juggle. She says we got into a little conflict, and he can be a world war. But the confrontation with the West is manifested in many things: the situation in Ukraine, the expansion of NATO, the arms race in the information campaign against us. This is a systemic and complex process, and in Syria, we see only one of the manifestations of this process.
Our actions in Syria aims to stop the West. Otherwise we have to conduct military actions in Central Asia, the North Caucasus, in the Crimea. And people will subconsciously feel it. They fear that a Third world war would be.
But if war breaks out, it’s not because of Syria. When there are no fundamental contradictions between the great powers of the world do not start wars, minor skirmishes can’t be the reason. In Syria, conflicts may occur, say, due to the pipeline. But this is not the reason for world war. It can start when one party thinks that they are ready to unleash a global conflict.
Today in the United States are fighting two trends. One of the elite tuned aggressively. She does not want war, but believes that by a bluff to get Russia to capitulate. So I think because at the time, Gorbachev showed an example. Like, once a little pressure, show the cartoon about the SDI program how to shoot down our missiles, and we capitulorum. We now have in power many of those who worked during the reign of Yeltsin, they are Americans and counting.
But it will not turn out to force us to retreat. Russia is not happy if de-escalation is the cost of our funeral, as stated by Vladimir Putin at the Valdai club. But part of the Western elite thinks that it is necessary to continue the pressure. And if this view wins, then the world really may fall in the Third world. They will increase the pressure, and we can’t go back and stop the escalation is really difficult.
But there is another part of the elite, it is now konsolidiruyutsya around trump. People understand that the U.S. role in the world is very different, should not get involved. So, it is necessary to negotiate with Russia.
SP: — Previous years showed that compromise is still possible.
— With the militant part of the American elite difficult to arrange, she had believed in his invincibility.
There was a case when Russia and the US agree on eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons, but we should not overestimate Washington’s willingness to compromise. Then the States had chemical weapons to withdraw before the beginning of active hostilities. Indeed there was a threat of uncontrolled proliferation of weapons to terrorist groups, was a threat to Israel. We operated initially under the American plan. The United States hoped to win its methods, but then we stepped in and messed things up.
If we talk about Turkey shot down a Russian plane, it agreed Moscow and Ankara. The Turkish side has made concessions, the relationship was normalized, what was are all interested. But it’s not in the confrontation between Russia and the United States.
“SP”: — Why Syria has become a “stumbling block”?
— The West together with Saudi Arabia and Qatar want to turn Syria into a militant Sunni state to destroy the Shiite axis of Syria-Iran-Iraq. Planned first to destroy the axis, and then to attack Iran. Following would come Russia’s turn, terrorist activity would be transferred into our territory. At the same time be pressured from the Ukraine and the Baltic States. I mean, Syria is part of a larger geopolitical operation directed against Russia. Therefore, in any case can not take Bashar al-Assad, as our ally.
It is not in Syria as such, and certainly not Assad. The West is more willing to bluff and psychological pressure on us. But the problem is that they’re bluffing, not only in words but also in deeds. Will Americans “red line”? States are now hesitant do not know what to expect. In Syria, we concentrated a large group, and our willingness to answer all I see. At the same time, Washington is still hope for us psychologically crushing.
Senior researcher of the Russian Institute of strategic studies Azhdar Kurtov also believes that the events in Syria can be only a pretext to a world war:
The first and Second world wars started with a fairly minor incidents, but the result of the presence of large contradictions. War occurs when there are serious preconditions.
Are there any prerequisites today? Of course! The United States understands that losing global hegemony. And therefore can go to war to show the world his power and at the same time to undermine the power of geopolitical rivals — Russia and its allies.
For the First world war, the trigger was the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. But a front in the Balkans during the war, the major was not in world politics then the question of the creation of Yugoslavia was not essential.
And now Syria — not the main thing that divides Russia and the United States. But the US is interested to any means to achieve in Syria of his own. We kind of bonded over the destruction of chemical weapons, but then everything was back to normal. Policy initiatives have been undermined by a visual signal under the control of the States groups.
The war in Syria may be the trigger for global conflict. But it’s not because the middle East is so important for Russia or America. Just the United States has moved in the past few years to the aggressive logic of foreign policy.
Hillary Clinton is generally configured aggressively. If it gets to the White house, I’m afraid, offensive action from Washington will be more.
“SP”: — Can relieve the tension in Syria, to conflicts with the USA we have less?
— Syria — not the main site of the confrontation in the modern world. And the fact that Syria itself is of no great interest, for it is a compromise is possible. For US not so principled Syria. States enough to make a move to this country was at peace.
But they are such a step does not do. From the perspective of Washington, Russia is weak and can break the resistance of the available tools. But all will become clear after the final results of the presidential elections in the United States.
However, radical changes hope not. If Assad wins in Syria, the Americans will find a new region to stage something like that.
Recently the United States provoked tensions in many parts of the world, and it’s not only about the middle East.
Ongoing hysteria about nuclear tests of the DPRK. Made bellicose statements about the disputed Islands in South-East Asia. The Americans initiated a military Alliance with Japan, which could lead to a confrontation with China. Not excluded new “color” revolutions in the Arab world — in Algeria or in the Gulf States. States can use any point of tension to start a war, and in a glow as they hold a lot of conflicts. To flash can, if desired, in any place.
