According to the Central Bank, the volume of deposits for the first quarter decreased primarily due to the deposits in foreign currency.
The Russians began to withdraw their funds from deposits, particularly foreign currency. According to the Central Bank, which are contained in the latest review of the banking sector in the first quarter of 2016, the volume of deposits decreased by 3%. Experts ‘ opinions were divided. Some believe that the Russians are taking money from banks by poverty, others believe that the outflow of deposits is due to the wealthy clients.
Last year the volume of deposits of the population increased from month to month (with rare exceptions). Its peak the trend has reached in December of 2015, when the monthly growth amounted to 8% and individuals ‘ funds on Deposit amounted to 23.2 trillion rubles. However, this year the trend began to decline. If in January the volume of deposits decreased by 1.8%, in March — 2%. Even taking into account currency revaluation it is obvious that the trend is reversed. On April 1, 2016, the population kept on Deposit already 22.5 trillion rubles.
EXANTE analyst Evgeniy Slavnov connects this process to the General situation in the country, as well as the tariff policy of banks.
— Last year, people put away for a rainy day. Moreover, this contributed to rather high rates that were the result of a sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank to 17% in December 2014. But this year real incomes fall. People just started to eat into the nest egg, is no doubt Evgeniy Slavnov.
In addition, he notes, banks have cut rates, which is not conducive to the preservation of funds in the banks. Thus, according to the Central Bank of monitoring maximum interest rates of the ten largest credit institutions with the greatest number of individuals, in January 2015 this figure was 15.3%, and on 1 April 2016 and 9.7%.
About the effect of lowering the rates told the “news” in a press-service VTB 24.
— In the first quarter of the Deposit market in a situation of excess liquidity. The banks have no need to maximize the involvement of private funds, the focus shifted to reduction in price of attracted resources, — emphasized in a credit institution.
Head of the analytical Department of the Bank BKF Maxim Osadchy notes that for the first quarter of 2016 ruble deposits practically has not changed — they fell by 0.2%.
— But foreign currency deposits decreased significantly by 9.7% in rubles, or 3.0% — in us dollar (the difference is explained by the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar by 7.5% in the first quarter. Thus, took place exclusively outflow of foreign currency deposits — by $2.8 billion, he estimates.
According to Maxim Osadchy, currency investors — the wealthiest and the most financially literate investors, they are afraid of discussions about possible freezing of foreign currency deposits. He believes that these customers prefer banks to transfer your funds in cash to keep at home, or sent to foreign credit institutions.
In VTB24 indicate that on foreign currency deposits was influenced by the effect of revaluation, but also note that the stock of foreign exchange liquidity in the banking system is really redundant. This, as emphasized Evgeniy Slavnov, led to the fact that credit institutions establish almost prohibitive rate on foreign currency deposits.
— Banks now not really need foreign currency liquidity, particularly given the increasing demands for reservation of credits in foreign currency. Therefore, to attract the currency they are seeking, setting the low rates on deposits, — says the analyst.
For example, recently it became known that trendmaker in the banking market is Sberbank, which is already reduced since the beginning of the year interest rates on foreign currency deposits by 2-3 p. p, might bring the promised yield on these deposits to almost zero. About it Bloomberg reported Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank Alexander Morozov, responsible for financial unit of the organization.
In a press-service of the Central Bank explained the decline in the volume of deposits by the seasonal factor, noting that, for example, in the first quarter of 2014 also saw the outflow. However, at that time, the citizens took the money and in III and IV quarters of that was due to the volatility in the markets due to the devaluation. And 2015 has started with growth — according to the regulator, it amounted to 1.9%.
