Ulyukayev expects growth of our economy as early as 2017.
– Nine months – as much, according to the Minister of economic development, the Russian economy is in a state of pause (stand-by). The head of economic departments no doubt that after the vibrations within plus or minus 0.1 percent, it’s time to “start to move”. However, on the days he little doubted not the most optimistic prospects for the national currency.
No, one actually does not contradict. Properly conducted devaluation is always a stimulus to growth, albeit small. More important is the tone of the speeches of the relevant Minister. When he talked about the ruble and oil prices, someone may want to almost cry. Now Alexei Ulyukayev also “almost” does not radiate optimism. This optimism is based not on the ruble and inflation. Which, in the opinion of the Minister, has been steadily declining and will decline further.
We must recognize that speaking about the devaluation of the ruble, the speaker has noted its insignificance, but not began to spread on the subject, has exhausted whether the rouble potential of growth. And judging by recent events in the oil market, has, alas, exhausted. After moving a couple of times through a mark 40 dollars per barrel, to stay at this level, the oil are unable. Summed Saudi sheikhs and the producers of shale oil. The first refused to cut production, if you do not do others, first of all – Iran. Second did have to reduce the number of drilling rigs. It is not surprising that analysts are talking about the dollar and 69 rubles, and even on 71-mu.
This time, speaking about prospects of the ruble, the Minister of the reason of such forecasts don’t even remember. I think he did it on purpose. The fact is that now that the economy has adapted to the work in terms of sanctions, it is quite possible industrial growth, and already in the second quarter. It is about the speaker and hastened to tell reporters, at the same time making it clear that the ruble will strengthen along with the economy.
Well, a new wave of strong depreciation of the ruble can now be simply dangerous. After the ruble was down to the fact that the dollar was worth nearly 80 rubles, and Euro almost 90, declining to a level of 71 rubles per dollar really be called strong language just does not turn. And generally, more appropriate in the current situation would be a little stronger ruble, and more importantly, the real economy is in desperate need for a reduced credit percentage.
Hence, some analysts have concluded that the speaker spoke about the prospects of economic growth and the ruble is not in vain – it seems that the Minister is prepared to renew a long discussion with the Central Bank about the need to more strongly reduce the key rate. The logic of the Minister in the present circumstances can not only understand, but also to support – if there is no access to the expensive currency (road course, not by percentage), ease access to cheap ruble (cheap not only for the course, but also credit interest).
And yet. The sharp drop in oil futures after the statement of the representative of Saudi Arabia that the Kingdom would not reduce production levels, if you do not do Iran and other producing countries, has led to a significant weakening of the Russian ruble. Attempt to gain a foothold below 67 rubles paired with the US dollar was interrupted by the sharp growth of the American currency, the rate which the local market has risen above 68. Data on the reduction of shale drilling rigs from oil services company Baker Hughes made it possible to stabilize the situation. But the June futures for North sea mixture of Brent is under pressure at the beginning of a new week and traded below $38.30 per barrel. The dollar on the local market, most likely, will come nearer to a mark of 69 rubles. At preservation of negative tendencies in the oil market, the American currency will continue an upward momentum during the week to a mark of 71 rubles, compensating for the two-month decline. Information to be received about the prospects for oil-producing countries meeting in Doha, scheduled for April 17, will have a direct impact on oil quotations, and as a result, the ruble’s exchange rate.
