Amid rising oil prices strengthened the ruble. On Tuesday, the Euro fell to 73.5 rubles, the dollar fell briefly below 65 rubles. However, further strengthening of the ruble may slow down.
So, against the background of falling oil reserves in the US, the quotes of “black gold” soared to highs since the beginning of the year. Of course, traders in the currency market of Russia did not leave this event without attention and continued to bet on the strengthening of the Russian currency.
On the one hand, the rise in oil prices allowed a key for the Russian budget indicator – the oil price in rubles is to come to a more or less comfortable level above 3 thousand RUB over the barrel.
It is unlikely that monetary authorities have the desire to keep the oil price in roubles under 3 thousand rubles, therefore, it is possible that CB will be in some form to prevent the strengthening of the Russian currency. Already on Friday held a meeting of the Bank of Russia, and perhaps we’ll hear some new comments on this matter. Yes, the solution itself at the rate some influence on market sentiment will have.
On the other hand, oil prices and so has increased dramatically and rapid growth is now also wait hardly worth it.
From a purely technical point of view, the quotes of Brent oil in the near future, most likely, will reach us $48 per barrel, after which inevitably will adjust, although, perhaps, slightly.
By the way, today will be published the results of a meeting of the Federal reserve system, which somehow will have an impact on the American dollar, and he in turn has a very close relationship with the oil prices, about which we repeatedly wrote.
Anyway, all this is mostly theory. Much more important to understand what to expect the major market participants: what they bet. As a rule, to evaluate their actions, we turn to the options market.
Based on data from the Moscow exchange for options on futures on pair dollar/rouble in mid-June while the big players build their positions based on the outset.
Of course, this sideways trend, according to open positions, can be very wide, but at least the boundaries of it more or less clear.
If you go back to oil prices, should pay attention to the article, which appeared yesterday from Bloomberg. It says that the price of oil close to the mark, where the shale companies in the US can return to the market. According to the company IG Ltd., even at a price of $45, the production of shale oil can be profitable.
Probably the so-called experts do not take into account the fact that in addition to profitability, there are other problems, such as extremely high debt load the shale companies and the inability to refinance.
Many companies simply stopped or reduced production, they are completely gone from the market. Thus, it is unlikely to seriously pay attention to these forecasts. It is better to look at the dynamics of production volumes in the United States, data for which will be released tonight.
