As terrorists destroy the national economy
A series of explosions at the airport and the metro of Brussels claimed the lives of over 30 people, halted public transport and forced to tighten security measures. What the next terrorist attack will cost the transport complex in the Belgian capital, airlines and insurers, has yet to be calculated. “Ribbon.ru” remember what consequences for national economies has led other high-profile terrorist attacks.
The phantom menace
Another terrorist attack carried out on 22 March in the capital of Belgium for some time paralyzed public transport, sowed panic and has forced the authorities to declare the highest level of terrorist threat. Several explosions, suicide bombers made at Brussels airport. Then terrorists attacked the subway, which also worked improvised explosive device. According to the latest information погибли34 man, almost one hundred and fifty were injured. Because of the attack on the Belgian capital became agitated in neighbouring France, President Francois Hollande convened an emergency meeting, the head of the country’s interior Ministry said it would send 1,600 police officers on the border and transport infrastructure.
This form of fighting terrorist groups with European institutions, according to the Director of the Center for political information Alexei Mukhin, due to the penetration into the territory of the European Union “of several thousand potential suicide bombers or specialists in explosives and conducting subversive struggle.” They joined with the already residing in the territory of the EU coordinators, making the entire terrorist army. And now try to influence the decisions of European politicians, creating panic and chaos, says the analyst.
European countries, according to Mukhin, react traditionally restricts the movement of citizens, close the border, impose a state of emergency, but significantly change the situation. “European intelligence agencies confused a large number of refugees, on which they have no influence. If in the old diasporas they had at least some agents, identify potential threats, but now in the new enclaves have to debug this system again that will take time, but time gone,” says the expert.
Brussels-reply
In the last decade, terrorism has become a global economic factor affecting companies, industries, countries and even entire regions (think banned in Russia grouping “Islamic state”). A turning point was September 11, 2001, when terrorists took the unprecedented in the modern history of the attack in the largest economy of the world. A squad of suicide bombers hijacked four planes, two aircraft rammed into new York tower of the world trade center (WTC), which caught fire and collapsed. One liner was sent to the Pentagon, located near Washington and the fourth crashed in Pennsylvania. Suicide bombers killed nearly three thousand people. The international monetary Fund in 2001 estimated the direct losses from the September 11 terrorist attacks in 21 billion dollars (later sounded the score at 55 billion). Since then, the terrorist activity and the scale of their activities only grew.
Photo: Emilio Morenatti / AP
A policeman guarding the airport terminal in Barcelona (Spain), where we have introduced enhanced security measures on the background of terrorist attack in Brussels on 22 March.
According to the study, Global Terrorism Index 2015 (GTI) prepared by the Institute for Economics and peace, in 2014 at the hands of terrorists killed 32,7 thousand people, which is the highest indicator for all history. Since 2000, it has grown ten times. The most radical group killed in Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria. Russia is on the 23rd place between China and Israel, and the injured from the bombings in the subway and the airport Belgium — on 82-m. In Belgium the level of terrorist threat was assessed as one of the lowest in the world. Only in 2014, according to GTI, the terrorist attacks occurred in 93 countries. Their numbers are growing every year, although the most dangerous from the point of view of the terrorist threat remain the Middle East and Africa with an unstable political situation.
Not all attacks lead to casualties, but terrorism is spreading across the globe and soon there will be places where you can feel safe. In the Belgian capital at the end of last week detained a suspected organizer of the terrorist attacks in Paris, committed in November of last year. Security services have liquidated a cell of jihadists of five. But as it turned out, not all bandit underground after a few days the Brussels, considered a safe haven, turned into another hotspot on the map of the terrorist war.
Blew up billions
After the explosions at the airport of Brussels, the hub was suspended, people were evacuated, airlines canceled flights. Obviously, financial losses threaten the destroyed airport and subway, as well as air carriers and insurance companies (the latter have yet to calculate the size of payments to victims of terrorist attacks March 22).
However, the indirect economic damage from such accidents are always much higher. Thus, the loss of insurance companies in the United States after the new York terrorist attacks of 11 September was estimated at 40-50 billion dollars, and total business losses, including suspension of operations, more than $ 120 billion. Approximately seven billion dollars paid to relatives.
The official assessment of the damage to the American economy, made by the U.S. Department of Commerce, 80 billion U.S. dollars. According to authorities, after the explosion of the twin towers and dive the plane at the Pentagon airlines by almost a third have reduced the number of flights, passenger traffic fell sharply, retail sales decreased by two percent, a record increase in the number of applications for unemployment compensation — 50 thousand per month. The aggregate amount of losses, thus, exceeded the direct losses of at least four to six times, not to mention doprastav U.S. national security, which was in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The first shot after such a large-scale emergency, as a rule, assume the transport sector, retailing and entertainment sector. After the terrorist attacks in Paris in November last year — suicide bombings, shooting in and taking hostages in the theater “Bataclan” (129 people were killed, over 350 wounded) — have been cancelled all public events in town, including the Christmas fair on the Champs Elysees. Trading network, bars and restaurants, cinemas were closed for a few days. Not only to the authorities but also on their own initiative. So did the Department stores Galeries Lafayette, Le Printemps, BHV Marais, retail chains Uniqlo, H&M and others.
Photo: Philippe Wojazer / Reuters
Near the concert hall “the Bataclan” after the terrorist attacks in Paris.
Terrorist attack for several weeks scared off tourists, depriving of potential income not only to France (which in 2014, according to the world tourism organization, has become the most visited country in the world with tourists to 84 million people), but Western Europe as a whole. The world’s largest in terms of revenue Air France-KLM announced decrease of income per month € 70 million due to the decrease in the number of reserved tickets. After that slid down share prices of travel companies. As reported by Reuters, investors withdrew about 2.5 billion euros from the largest tour companies included in the STOXX 60 Travel & Leisure index. A little cheaper and securities of manufacturers of luxury goods, the bulk of which was sold to travelers in Paris. A similar effect was observed in the USA in 2001.
Crashed in the attack in October last year, the Russian Airbus has created the problems of the whole industry. Flying from Sharm El Sheikh to St. Petersburg, the liner collapsed on the Sinai Peninsula, killing 224 people. After that, the Russian authorities banned flights to Egypt, and it was one of the two most popular destinations for a beach holiday along with Turkey. In the Russian Association of air transport operators estimated losses of Russian airlines at nine billion rubles (about $ 128 million) in 2015. At least 1.5 billion rubles ($20 million) lost the tour operators. Did not withstand the terrorist attacks of terrorists and the owner of the dead plane — the airline “Kogalymavia”, is on the verge of bankruptcy.
A familiar terror
The most sensitive terrorist attacks for small developing countries with weak economies. An analyst “Finam” Bogdan Zvarich recalls that after the Paris terrorist attacks the most important financial index France CAC40 “limited to two days of a mild fall, and then began the growth of quotations”. But the greatest resonance is called the assassination of it is in European countries and the United States, even if the number of victims of these bloody attacks is relatively small.
In the GTI report notes that more than half of those killed by terrorists in 2014 were killed in Iraq and Nigeria (a large portion of them militants of the banned in Russia “Islamic state” and the group “Boko Haram”). However, the killings in the regions of instability in the Middle East and Africa media and public opinion have become accustomed. Therefore, the main purpose is to intimidate the Europeans, to sow panic in the Old World.
European financial institutions adapt to terrorism as inevitable Givens. Chief economist BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov notes that the markets ‘ reaction to terrorist attacks is becoming “quite cynical” and brokers “chasing returns”. “The world does not live the first year in the face of rising terrorist threats, financial markets and institutions tolerated. When there is some terrorist act, react in the first place of the national currency and the stocks of large companies,” he says. But this influence is short-term: a few days, if not hours. Then the decrease of quotations opens up opportunities for speculators and short term investors, and demand is restored. The Brussels event, he said, indirectly have a negative impact on the Euro and the finances of airlines and travel agencies.
