No sooner had the British vote for withdrawal from the European Union, as there was talk of European “parade of sovereignties” — separatist sentiments of various kinds has increased incredibly.
Billionaire George Soros said already that “bracket”, the exit of Britain from the European Union, makes the disintegration of the European community almost inevitable. This time I’m inclined to agree with him:
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/412937
What did the opponents of the withdrawal of Britain from the EU? After the stock markets collapse, the economy will fall, will start terror and panic. What to expect in reality? Most likely, the London underground will continue to go, as before, exchanges will be rocked by the waves here and there, and the average Englishman will not even notice any special change.
When through the tunnel under the English channel goes to the first echelon has not received the Albion shelter refugees, all of continental Europe immediately filled with envy the British — the problem of refugees is fairly across the EU, there are the interests of Officials at odds with the aspirations of ordinary Europeans dramatically.
In fact, many are already saying that the referendum results will veto that the referendum does not mean anything, that it can somehow swing or to beat… personally, I find these attempts to preserve the remnants of hope in vain.
First, the part of the English elite, which would like to see Britain within the EU, is not of fools. She realizes that any attempt to cheat will result in her complete loss of power at the next election — then the UK will still come from the European Union.
Second, European officials took the UK out of the EU with pent-up joy — because now, after leaving a strong player, their power within the EU has significantly improved. Simply put, even if Britain wanted to rewind the tape back, in the European Union, her “comeback” don’t wait.
Of course, the European officials are not fools, they understand that Britain could trigger a wave of “Huesito” and that as a result, the EU could fall apart entirely. However, the worst has already happened, and separatist sentiment in Europe will continue to grow regardless of the desire of officials to retain or not to retain Britain.
Who will be the first candidate to withdraw?
I guess the fermentation will start not even with nation-States and aimed at the withdrawal from the States of the regions. Take, for example, Northern Ireland: this region is very strong irredentist sentiments, the desire to secede from the UK in order to unite with the Republic of Ireland. They use the current reason for trying to escape from the power of the Crown?
No doubt. And if you are curious of the history of Ireland, you will understand why the Irish don’t like English, and why the Irish are still not ready to forgive the British organized the last genocide of the Irish.
Or, say, Scotland. In Scotland, as you remember, recently it has been already a referendum on the exit of the Kingdom, and then supposedly 55% of Scots voted to remain part of the UK.
As the Scottish elite and ordinary Scots, perfectly understood at the time that they screwed with the results of the referendum. Now that the Scots have a good excuse to make a second attempt to escape from London, to be sure, they will try and use this as an excuse to use it.
Probably will start churning in the separatist regions of continental Europe — for example, in Catalonia, which convinced the Catalans that “feeds” the rest of ungrateful Spain. Similarly care and Italian (so far) is Venice.
Of course, as the London and European officials will begin now to tighten the screws in an adult. If before the referenda was perceived as a kind of game in democracy, a way of venting and legitimizing the decisions of the elites, now everyone understands that the referendum really has become a tool for redrawing the boundaries. However, national States yet strong enough to resist the power of Brussels — if any country decide to leave the European Union, it will be able to do it.
Again, about the way out of the European Union think and say now everywhere — even in France and Germany the number of people willing to isolate themselves already amounts to tens of percent. However, if Germany and France there are good reasons to stay, then, for example, from Finland the situation itself demands to move slowly toward the exit.
Finns are relatively rich, loans from the European Union do not need them. On the other hand, a strong Euro and, most importantly, the anti-Russian sanctions do not allow them to play their usual role of gateway between Russia and Europe.
Remember, in Soviet time Finland played for the USSR roughly the same role that Belarus is playing for Russia, we are traded through Finland to other countries. In the same engaged and Finland after the USSR collapse: in a sense, the role of Finland even increased since Russia lost direct access to the ports of the Baltic States.
Finns with great joy returned to brand and cheaper it would be at least 20 percent — to sustain its exports, and to attract Russian tourists. Also the Finns, if they had the opportunity, immediately I would cancel all sanctions against Russia not to undermine them the most important part of its economy. Exit from the EU will allow them to do it — in this case Swedish elite that currently govern Finland also understand that a good relationship with Russia they are now necessary.
Again, let’s not forget the factor of refugees — the need to accept refugees Finns quite happy.
Do the Finns a chance to break through the fierce referendum at this time, the resistance of the officials? Yes, there is. The party “True Finns”, which adheres to the euroskeptic sentiment, rather densely represented in the government to lobby for a referendum. I would be very surprised if they are not already actively working on this issue.
However, of course, one of Finland it is clearly not limited. In the European Union after the UK will remain in 26 countries, and each of them, to be sure, there are reasons to say goodbye to the dream of a United Europe.
It is advantageous if the events of Russia?
I will not hide, profitable. It is much easier to find in common with the separate nation-States, not unified, managed from overseas organization. Americans have the opposite situation — when control of the European Union, the origins of which they stood, the Americans is relatively easy, as they have “live with the pigs” on a few key officials, then control of dozens of nation-States — the problem is virtually unsolvable.
Quoting Mikhail Saakashvili (warning sound):
https://www.facebook.com/SaakashviliMikheil/videos/1220101941353518/
Dread to think what dirty deal is ready to conclude some leading German, French and Italian policy with Putin in the terms of the disengagement of Britain from European Affairs. The extension of the EU sanctions against Russia is definitely a diplomatic victory for President Poroshenko, but today more than ever we need to mobilize and finally begin the reform. Do not get tired to repeat the last two years, but now the hesitation is death, or we “merge” and the hand will not tremble.
Perhaps, Mr Saakashvili’s right — after the exit of British anti-Russian sentiment inside the European Union will sharply weaken, and we may be able in the coming months to restore with the EU the normal working relationship.
If the EU falls apart, we are, on the one hand, will experience some discomfort from the problems of our main trading partner… but on the other hand, no financial, no political crisis will not cause our relationship with Europe more harm than has already put Pro-American-minded European Commission.
