The fifth column, the liberal revolution, Patriotic Maidan, the Palace conspiracy is already nearly a year and a half of this phrase with enviable regularity appear in the Russian press and heard from the mouths of the participants of TV programs. Those who cover the so-called “crisis of authority”, as those who speak about the likelihood of a sharp change of course, usually in a violent manner, have enough. They promote the same idea – the change of government in the near future is inevitable. Their conclusions differ only in the particulars, concerning the mechanism of this change and the main driving force.
Of a liberal coup, paid for by the West, we made it only after the events on Bolotnaya square. It was then that it became clear that there are real, not that which was created exclusively for the blind, the opposition, and it is quite organized. Organized and densely concentrated in Moscow. The protesters on Bolotnaya square under the competent appeals Pro-Western political strategists, who managed to place correct accents, were ready to plunge the capital into the abyss of riots. Didn’t have one single, strong, notorious leader and mass ideology. Fuse population, a lighted hysteria about the falsification of election results, did not last long.
Patriotic Maidan became a reality immediately after the developments in the Donbas. Patriotic impulse of the tens and hundreds of thousands of people, anticipating how the forces of the Russian world will sweep away the Kiev junta and liberate the neighbouring country of the henchmen of the West, crashed on the harsh reality of hybrid warfare that Russia is waging for several years, and the rules which are incomprehensible to the majority of the population. The patriots stopped near Mariupol, in the Wake of his disappointment were ready to blame the “plum new Russia” anyone. They were at that time very real and tangible force, and had clear-cut leader both in Russia and in Novorossiya. And most importantly, these leaders enjoyed the support of the Russian population! But as time passed, some of those who were able to defy the system, sunk in the summer, and the remaining dissolved in the society, who suddenly lost interest in the new Russia, abstract a new victorious war in the middle East, and then completely submerged into the internal problems of the state.
The fifth column we be mistaken to assume it is non-systemic opposition represented by Bulk, Kasyanov, Yashin and until recently Nemtsov. It’s not right. These people clearly outlined his position, pitting its position of the current government, they manifest, they are ideologically unambiguous and their motives and plans are not for anybody a secret. This outspoken opponents of the existing course that are not mimicked and not put on masks of people or patriots. They have chosen a course and priorities and try to match. They are not dangerous as they are easily predicted and predictable. Fighting global problems such as corruption in the higher echelons of power, they are unlikely to find much support among the population, which is concerned with more mundane problems, like the growth of tariffs for housing and communal services, reduction of the salaries of the state employees and higher fuel prices.
The real fifth column, it is, according to the laws of the genre, never manifest themselves before that time, which in certain circles is called “hour X”. It this property lies the main danger for Russia. People, which can without exaggeration be called a partaker of the force, called the fifth column, represented in almost all more or less significant power structures. They are in the presidential administration and its environment, are present in the relevant ministries, the State Duma, the Federation Council, security ministries and agencies, and even among the army generals. A lot of them and among the business representatives. Who are these people and how did they get to the corridors of power?
Here begins the most interesting. The country is driven by political and financial elites with which the President wants him to or not, forced to reckon. This elite is extremely heterogeneous, and this may cause predicted a “Palace coup”. Part of the elite that now hold the reins of government, and concentrates in its hands the basic resources, was formed under Boris Yeltsin, the part rose to his feet exclusively under Vladimir Putin. What is the heterogeneity of elites? It’s very simple. The duality of elites due to the fact that some powerful people see their future and the future of their children solely in the West, and the part that connects it with Russia and only with Russia. While both of these see in our country a source of income. Only some take and take out all earned in the U.S. and Europe, while others place their profits here, buying up buildings, land and concentrating in their hands the means of production. The main problem is that creating the perfect conditions for one of the elite, put in a losing position another part of the elite. To catch the delicate balance in this situation is extremely difficult. Although in the history of modern Russia there was a similar period, but it did not last long.
The first strike on the part of the elite, who working in Russia forms the platform for their comfortable future in the West, was struck at a time when Russia has taken a tough stance on Syria, not allowing the Western coalition to strike the Assad regime. I mean open hostilities, but not limited to financial support of local radicals. Eventually in a losing position this part of the Russian political and economic community drove at a time when the decision was made to join the Crimea to Russia. At that time the West, this promising and desirable, took a tough position and hinted to the Russian elite that it is time to slow down and return to normal. And although the first blow was struck by the part of the elite that sees its future with Russia, which has unleashed a sanctions war, the ultimatum could not be avoided and those who do not plan to live out their days in Russia. And if the Crimea they openly slept, the situation with the Donbas bad poor managed to bring in a suspended state, in which none of the parties has a clear advantage and the scales can easily tip in any direction. After the United States had made clear its position on Donbas, all help the rebels the population of Novorossiya from Russia can only be described as a “step forward, two steps back”. Surprisingly we lost the initiative. Unexpectedly information about the situation in the republics disappeared from the Central channels. Surprisingly in the air the question arose about the return of Novorossiya in the Ukraine on the rights of some questionable autonomy.
The situation was salvaged by the Syrian company, which has cornered another American puppet, seated on the Turkish throne by the Royal couple, the Clintons, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A sharp imbalance in the fronts forced the West to freeze the activity in the Donbass, and focus all their attention on the middle East. And again the Pro-Western Russian elite was in an uncomfortable position. Relations with the United States not only entered the stable phase of the thaw, but on the contrary, they are a breath of eternal cold.
A new vector of development of Russia’s foreign policy has led to the fact that working in Russia and spent in Europe and the United States became uncomfortable. The West demands from their supporters for decisive action and return the country to old rails, and they suddenly were not able to influence the situation the way they would like them to. The thing is that the part of the elite that sees its future with Russia, has passed the point of no return. For too long they McCauley overseas politicians in feces, and now to talk about the waste at the initial frontiers too late. The West is ready to accept the surrender of Russia, but the conditions made by our partners, to put it mildly unacceptable. A definite return annexed land, the withdrawal of troops from disputed territories, the recognition of aggression against Ukraine, with the ensuing criminal proceedings against several high-ranking functionaries, which, of course, belong to the elite, which has opposed a Pro-Western coalition. It’s a suicide. When stepping is dangerous, and the retreat more dangerous then, of course, it is better to come. In fact, the capitulation in these conditions will lead to the fact that the power will be concentrated in the hands of “not elite” and the authors of the project entitled “a challenge to the West” will be history, and their fate will be more than sad. This is a game VA-Bank, in which rates are prohibitive.
What is the part of the elite that wants to work on the same terms, to see the West as a desirable partner and to feel in Europe and the United States as home? Of course she daily suffers huge losses and losing ground. Economic and political isolation of Russia and their inability to influence the course of the country, undoubtedly lowers the representatives of the Pro-Western coalition in the status. Face the situation that look forward to our analysts – brewing Palace coup. From this point we come to what, in principle, and this article was written. Possible a Palace coup in the near future?
Despite what they say to us from the pages of Newspapers, catching up on horror and predicting the imminent collapse, I can confidently say that in the near future, at least until the end of the year, a Palace coup is not possible. The first reason as to negate all the bold plans – the Pro-Western elite is not organized and is not consolidated. The second reason, the solution of which will automatically nullify and first – there is no single, charismatic, controversial leader. Today the activities of the fifth column, the real fifth column, not the one which is constantly mentioned in the media, similar to the activity of fragmented and unorganized underground. Getting recommendations from overseas, and who just on a whim, these people are trying to negate all attempts to stabilize the situation of those who associate their future with Russia. The results of their activities You have to witness on an almost daily basis. Pro elite, which is organized and has clearly defined leader – Vladimir Putin, today, is clearly in a more advantageous position, as virtually all of the mechanisms of power are in its hands. Understanding that the main factor in the stability of this population, the government is doing everything to prevent such a phase of crisis in which the population will not remain other alternative than open protest. By cutting costs on everything, including defense spending, the government retains the proper level of the social budget, by timely paying benefits and pensions. Question, how many have resources…
However, it is still too early to say that the Pro-Western elite suffered a crushing defeat and the threat of a Palace coup are gone. This is not so. Today these people have appeared the leader. Bright, bold, and many close. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, whom the West is washed, cleaned and combed, today received the mandate to form a new Russian government. He has all the necessary resources – support for Western elites, the money that he allocated in the required quantities, and supporters in the Russian government circles, those who earned enough for a relationship with Khodorkovsky in the 90-ies. Many of those who were not ready to rally around Bulk, without seeing yourself in the team “guy in sneakers”, don’t hesitate to take it to Khodorkovsky. This stems from the ostensibly random meeting with Khodorkovsky representatives of the Russian show business and of the individual media. Disgraced oligarch today bulk buys politicians, bureaucrats and Newspapers, preparing a beachhead for an upcoming offensive. Do not forget about hidden methods of recruitment, which never write in the press. Whole service in the US work in the same key with Khodorkovsky, calculating the weaknesses of our politicians and functionaries. The dubious origin of capital, real estate and accounts abroad due to crime, the presence of moments in the biography about the person involved prefers to forget – all this information comes to Khodorkovsky and members of his team who decide what to do with this treasure. Those who can not find a common language, get the team to lie low and wait, to pretend that nothing happened. Those who refused to cooperate doing the hard – plums of dirt in the network by representatives of the liberal opposition is a vivid example. So after losing the battle, westernized elite has not lost the war. Is competent redeployment before a decisive offensive.
What to expect us, ordinary Russians? Frankly – until the end of the year the situation in the country will be consistently sad. The authority will do everything in order to create the appearance of minimal wellbeing, wasting the last resources of the country, and the population will be in sweet oblivion, thinking that the worst is over. The starting point will be the election of the President of the United States. It is now clear that Barack Obama is the won back card. He’s not going to change anything, or pumping popeska the situation. He just sit out his term to ensure a decent care, not burdened by the irreparable errors. Given that the US election will be held on November 8, plus the period of the inauguration and the formation of the new Cabinet – the real moment of truth will come in early 2017. It will then be clear what policy towards Russia will elect a new President of the United States. Option two always. Either to continue the confrontation, which will continue to drive the world into an abyss of severe crisis, or will begin the thaw that will allow you to negotiate a truce in a relaxed atmosphere and on terms that will not hurt the reputation of either party. Who will be the President of the United States and what policies will promote this man, today, is uncertain. Personally, I’m leaning toward the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, which is hard to pull by the ears and Republicans and representatives of the American elite, although there are some, considerable, a chance and trump, the business self-sufficient representative who has everything, except political influence. Both of these policies, because of the prevailing in their election program the Frank populism, it is difficult predictable. Trump, who does not hide his sympathy for Vladimir Putin, after the victory in the elections to occupy the diametrically opposite position, intensifying the confrontation with Russia, while Clinton, often blowing in the course of anti-Russian rhetoric, maybe two feet slam on the brakes. This is such a contradictory situation.
It is winter 2017 integrated into the body of Russia, the fifth column will receive instructions on how to proceed. and these instructions will be dictated solely by the new vector of US foreign policy, given came to the White house by the President. If the attack on Russia continues, sanctions, seeking our economy, will be of good help to the team of Khodorkovsky, who will announce the beginning of a decisive battle for Russia. And that’s when we can observe how deeply integrated the representatives of the West-oriented elites at all levels of our government. If will be declared a truce, Khodorkovsky and his vanguard will continue to work in standby mode, serving as a constant reminder of the ambiguity of the situation.
Anticipating replica of my readers that the Russian people would never accept as President Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who participated in the looting of Russia and imprisoned in a Russian jail is quite a considerable period of time, will comment on the situation in advance. The people no one asks. All revolutions are made solely in capitals. Remember the change of power in the 90-ies, which occurred exclusively in a limited area of Moscow. Many of You went to support one side or the other? Units! This situation was even past the majority of Muscovites! And we, the inhabitants of the regions sat and waited. Waited a will post a flag on the flagpole of the regional administration. We, in the Rostov region, tricolor posted. I know the regions that until recently worked under red flags. Our Governor shook hands and he even almost 20 years sat in this chair. Those who did not change the red Bunting on the flag and passed into history within a few days after the confrontation in Moscow. And that’s it. No barricades and confrontations.
In conclusion I want to say that in case of realization of the plan for a Palace coup in 2017, all will not work behind the scenes and bloodless. Definitely the streets of Moscow is mired in the riots. Supporters of the government acting, to lock horns with the power sector Pro-Western forces. With tens and hundreds of thousands of supporters of Navalny-Kasyanov-Yashin and those who take to the streets of the Patriotic ideology of the Maidan. Does this mean that the patriots will side with the liberals? No and no again! They will represent an independent, third force, which will try to clear the confusion to take her, not realizing that consciously participate in the West provoked the crowd, under cover of which will be the most important battle – the battle in the Kremlin!
Here’s the forecast from which it is possible to understand much and most importantly – the fate of Russia will be decided not earlier than decides the fate of the United States or will decide their new President. And we, Russians, should think about different scenarios, most of which fit in the described framework. To think and prepare. That didn’t work out the way it did in Ukraine, where organized and motivated minority famously decided the fate of the country, after a scattered and indifferent majority.
Alexey Sotiev
