At the end of April, a regular meeting of the Russian government. It is remarkable in that it was announced by the report of the head of the Ministry of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev dedicated to the forecast of socio-economic development of the country for 2016 – 2019. The Minister briefly outlined the state of the economy and presented his vision for the future.
Because the speaker is not worse than the magician Churov (who are known to be able to increase the number of votes cast “for”, not only to 100%, but even up to 146%), the contents of the report, in General, quite predictable. Of course, in the view of the speaker, the state of the country improved, and at the end of the first quarter, the economy is even in a better position than expected. In the financial sector reduced inflation, reduced capital outflows, rapidly rising stock market performance (“the best score in the world”), there is a surplus of liquidity, lower lending rates to final borrowers. In the industrial sector, improving the structure of the economy, there is a growth in manufacturing and agriculture, have formed an investment resource for the development, and, consequently, increased loading onto rail transport increased by electric energy. Finally, in the consumer sector – has improved the situation with the real incomes of the population.
According to the Minister, the economy has already adapted to the new macroeconomic reality, “the population, and our own business, and foreign business adequately assess investments in the Russian financial system as low-risk”. In General, great upheavals in our favour. Bright epic canvas created on the basis of the report of the mighty staff of the Ministry of economic development. What’s the real picture of reality?
The slowdown in inflation, and the drop in inflation is due to a decrease in the amount of money from the population. To raise prices of goods and services for the population is impossible – people will refuse to buy them. The economic development Ministry report on monitoring the economic situation shows a continued decline in demand for goods and services to the consumer. And the reason for this phenomenon there called the decline in real income. The speaker in another place of the report also reports that the retail trade turnover decreased by 2.7%. Other, independent, sources indicate the same. In addition, they note a decrease in the money savings of the population – people are eating what they have accumulated. Finally, according to Rosstat, increased wage arrears. And, to top it off, grow the costs of mandatory payments (taxes, utilities, etc.). That is, the lower inflation is, in this case, does not merit the state, and the result of the deteriorating economic situation.
Ulyukayev mentioned the devaluation of the ruble, noting that she “was less than before.” How delicate! As you know, before the crisis the dollar was worth about 33 -35 rubles. As of 20 April 2016 it cost, in round figures, 65.6 rubles. That is, have risen in price twice. But there were moments when it cost 70 rubles. This is 4.5 rubles more expensive than it is now, then the rights of the Minister – less than before. Not carp! And the fact that the ruble is still cheaper (and much), just keep silent.
The Minister of economic development said that capital outflow has decreased in 5 times compared to last year. He explains that foreign businessmen, as it is written, “to adequately assess investments in the Russian financial system as low-risk”. However, the departure from Russia of a considerable number of foreign companies contradicts this statement. Therefore, the real reason of reducing of capital flight lies in the fact that is there is nothing “to flow away” – all the money taken out. But the speaker contradicts himself when he afterwards says that “there remains a negative value of investment (during the year will be about 3% minus)”. That is, foreign businessmen, of course, to adequately assess the situation in Russia – and act logically.
“Since February, we have seen a surplus of liquidity. This means that both the population and business increased their balances in the banking system…” In fact, this means the impossibility or difficulty of using the money for business: documents from independent sources, the index of business activity in the Russian Federation decreased. Most of the money in banks is money business, not the public. Besides, the population takes their money. And business to take the money can not, as they are needed for calculations. These funds accumulate in the accounts. And the banks themselves have too many problems. Available liquidity, instead of working, stays in inaction because of inadequate economic policy has created many difficulties and risks, almost out of nowhere. Ulyukayev and to brag there is nothing.
Accordingly, the statement of the Minister about the growth in manufacturing and agriculture not cause any trust. Most likely, it’s just a manipulation of statistics. To prove this manipulation I do not want, because this work is time-consuming, but for the General meaning of the events we can conclude that such growth is impossible: no money, no conditions. But you can refer to companies conducting economic research in Russia, which noted a decline in business activity in the manufacturing sector, reduced production volumes, a decrease in the number of contracts for production and, in addition, a decrease in employment in this field.
Yes, and the speaker in his speech before the government indicates the need to create favorable conditions for development of small and medium – sized businesses – “substantial improvement of business conditions in the country,” “innovation, human capital development, additional support for small and medium-sized businesses. And even ties the future of the country with the establishment of these conditions. In the end, he’s home in the country on the issue of economic development, so to speak, the architect of the program. Of course, he understands what needs to be done for this development. But also understand that this is impossible in the current situation.
To assess the quality of the optimism of the speaker can be, for example, to look at its forecast for wage increases in the country in 2017.
“Starting in 2017, we expect the recovery in the major factors of economic growth, that is, consumer demand through the growth in real incomes and investment demand”. “In 2017, an increase of 0.8%, real wage by 1.2%”.
Wage growth of 1.2% means that for every 100 rubles will increase 1.2 ruble, i.e. for every thousand in just 12 rubles. And even this figure should be compared with the rate of inflation, because it eats up money growth.
About inflation, Ulyukaev said that it is “starting from 2017, will steadily below 5%”. That is, for example, it will be 4.5%. This means that for every 100 roubles she will be 4.5 rubles, and for every thousand – 45 rubles. In General, we find that the expected wage will increase by 12 rubles for every thousand, but, at the same time, will decrease by 45 rubles to a thousand – at the expense of inflation.
And while the speaker still expects to increase consumption! As the demand could grow, when the real income will decrease by 45 – 12 = 33 rubles for each thousand? Unless “demand” in the form of a desire to buy something – in the absence of real opportunities to buy. But at the same time the Ministry forecasts that the growth of retail turnover will grow by 1.1%, i.e. to 11 rubles per thousand. Purely in numbers, it may be so, but the number of product – definitely not. With inflation prices rise, purchasing power decreases and less goods sold. Here we see a great example of how loyal, it seems, the numbers are actually used to create the illusion of improvement. But in reality the forecast is laid reducing wages and lowering the standard of living.
