The NATO summit considered the defeat of Putin and the victory of Ukraine. What really decided in the Polish capital?
One of the main reasons that the NATO summit has pleased his supporters in Ukraine — a meeting of the Commission Ukraine — NATO, the results of which were made several important points, writes Anna Goncharenko in No. 27 of the journal Correspondent from July 15, 2016.
The first is the adoption of an Integrated package of assistance to Ukraine. We are talking about supporting 40 destinations, primarily in the reform of the army. Funding will be provided through five special trust funds that were created after the previous summit (Wales, 2014). Second — start a trust Fund for clearance of Donbass. Third — Ukraine is a special partner.
There were other messages. In the final Declaration of the summit on the Russia we are talking almost exclusively in a negative way. Experts confirm that she declared “cold war”.
Closer to the Russian border
“Even though we decided to spend the next week in the NATO Council — Russia, all 28 countries are United in the opinion that we can’t go back to normal relations with Russia”, — said at the summit, U.S. President Barack Obama.
But European politicians who are sympathetic to Russian President Vladimir Putin, there was still restrained words of support. “France considers Russia an enemy, she is not a threat. Russia is a partner, which, however, sometimes, as we saw in the example of Ukraine can use force,” said French President Francois Hollande.
“Statements relative sympathizers of Putin show that a high degree of unity among NATO members, — said Director of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Ruslan Bortnik. — Lots of talk about this in the West. But, in fact, we are talking about the game with Putin in a good and bad COP: evil US and Germany good. The goal of this game is to force Putin to make concessions”.
Viktor Nebozhenko, Director of the sociological service Ukrainian barometer, says that on the cold stage of the “war” will not move — the hot phase of confrontation between NATO and Russia will not. But the signal sent by Russia. And it’s not only the support of the reform of the Ukrainian army. NATO brought to life what was previously announced, Alliance locates in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland four battalions.
“NATO sends a clear message that we will protect every ally,” Obama said. Now American soldiers will be on the Polish-Russian border, the British in Estonia, in Lithuania, German, canadian in Latvia.
“I’m somewhat stunned. NATO, which was portrayed to be a diplomatic structure, suddenly declares that she has an enemy that is not going to openly fight, but will use all possible means against him — continues Nebozhenko. — Putin did not expect that he will use his own methods. The US and NATO will not fight due to the fact that Russian soldiers are fighting in Donetsk. But symmetrically in Warsaw decided on the quartering of soldiers in the Baltic States and Poland.
Be with them to fight Russia? No. NATO has gone on hybrid principles. The Alliance will strengthen ties with Russia and will simultaneously create zones of tension for Russia. NATO will cooperate with Russia in the Syrian conflict, but the conflict in Ukraine or Estonia.”
Sanctions under a new sauce
If NATO adopts the “hybrid” rules of the game, it may mean that the sanctions against Russia will be lifted and will be applied to the long-debated principle of ” business as usual.
“Russia feels bad because of the sanctions, — says Ruslan Bortnik. But the worst feeling is the state of the financial system, not the people. Sanctions will hurt technological fields, military, mining. But at the same time they do not hit the food production, the energy sector — on feeling of the population.
The sanctions will create big problems for Russia’s technological development. They push the country into a deep Alliance with China, and it may not be ravnoapostolnym. China will dominate
The Political Scientist Ruslan Bortnik
Under such oppression, Russia can live for tens of years. On the other hand, sanctions will create big problems for Russia’s technological development. They push the country into a deep Alliance with China, and it may not be ravnoapostolnym. China will dominate, what Putin is not very desirable. But to push Russia to China risk, given their nuclear capacity. I think that will not wait. After all, if sanctions do not upgrade, they no longer work.
The expert said that Russia will arrange that the sanctions are not expanded. Given that at the summit it was she recognized as a party non-complying with the Minsk agreement, we can assume that they do not cancel. But the modernization of sanctions.
“It is obvious that Poroshenko has no political resources to put the squeeze on the implementation of the Minsk-2 or to announce its failure. In a presidential election year in the US, it would not be desirable. Therefore, the emphasis shifted in the direction of declaring assistance to Ukraine and to the side the fact that the failure of Minsk-2 are guilty of Russia, which is not conducive to de-escalate the conflict,” says Director of the analytical center Third sector” Andrei Zolotarev.
Nebozhenko says that the economic sanctions, the West is tired, but ready for their “hybrid” analogue — which Putin has nothing to oppose.
“Rules of the game established, ” says the analyst. — There are decisions that are unvoiced. We are talking about fields that are not associated with material — oil, gas, Parmesan cheese, and about events that are offensive to Russians. In Russia a great athletes? So they stay home. Good space ships? So refuse them.
This is the consensus agreed upon in Warsaw. I’m not talking about the fact that the summit took place in that room, which many years ago created the Warsaw Pact. It’s like the history of Hitler, who forced France to sign a document of defeat in the same trailer, which was previously signed humiliating for Germany Treaty of Versailles”.
Partner of NATO and the United States
The summit was a sensation — Ukraine, no one called the Alliance, Petro Poroshenko was not talking about holding a referendum on accession.
“Chose the right tactics, — said Volodymyr Fesenko, Board Chairman of the Center for applied political studies Penta. — We are moving in a roundabout way, using flexible tactics of Euro-Atlantic integration. It consists in the development of partnerships. NATO is helping us with the modernization of the army in the transition towards the standards of the Alliance. This gives the prerequisites to join NATO without being a member.
It does not allow us to use the fifth article of the Treaty of mutual protection. But, hand on heart, even in the Baltic States there is no certainty that in the case of the invasion of Russia this article is going to work. To think that it is a reliable guarantee of the protection and will help to avoid the risks is naive. Absolute guarantee of safety in the modern world. But this strategy of partnership agreements is in our best interest. We can hope only on itself.
As additional support, you can count on financial aid. In particular, the U.S. Senate approved the Pentagon budget in 2017, which provides $ 500 million for defense of Ukraine. In principle, this kind of taxed States, given the specific foreign policy of a “world policeman” during the tenure of Obama.
“Obama was distracted by his peacemaking that brought him, in particular, the problems in the middle East, ” says Fesenko. Even a number of American generals who worked in NATO, actively criticized the position of Obama, including in connection with Ukraine. They believe that to help in military terms, it was possible to order more. Obama too early received the Nobel prize. Give it to him in advance and it deformed his foreign policy thinking led to a number of failures of the policies of States in Europe and the middle East.”
The expert urges not to exaggerate the role of Obama in US foreign policy. He said that the financial and military support to Ukraine will remain after the election of a new President.
However Nebozhenko believes that Obama’s caution is a caution the America that doesn’t want to disturb the Russian military potential. “Obama is considered by some agreements and not afraid to fail finally, although this is his reproach.
He has left 8 million soldiers in Afghanistan. This means that the war transferred to Northern Afghanistan, and there is near the Ferghana valley, so that next year we will hear about the war in Central Asia. So most likely Obama wants to fight on other platforms, then, that at the time Kennedy was called the “strategy of local wars”. When you can fight everywhere except the territories of the United States and the Soviet Union”.
Russia hiding?
“Managing NATO, obviously, into the hands of the US and the military, not politicians. Dominated by militaristic component, ” says Bortnik. — Won in the lobby of the military-industrial complex, it will increase. There has been a rapid updating of NATO, whereas as of 2014 it was a dying structure. Its feasibility in Europe was less obvious.”
In favor of the militarization says the decision of NATO members to raise defense budgets to 2% of GDP. Nebozhenko noted that such an unprecedented increase was not since the 50-ies of the last century.
The representative of the Russian foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova requested clarification on the summit and accused NATO that the Alliance exists “in the military-political Wonderland.” The official position of the President of Russia has not been announced: while in Warsaw continued the summit, Putin has not appeared on television, did not make statements. Gone… wrote Russian media.
Later it became known that he went to Karelia, Valaam monastery, where he met with Patriarch Kirill. “The last time he was there as mysteriously sitting for several days in April 2014. Then earned a gun, wrote about this well-known Russian blogger Andrei Malgin. — No accident this Balaam. Or you will crawl away from the Donbass, or fluttering in Ukraine from all trunks…”
Meanwhile, in neighboring Finland the NATO summit has raised a real wave there talking about deepening partnership with NATO. Similar sentiments were widespread in Moldova, the Minister of defence which has asked to promote the initiative “the transformation of the mission in the Transnistrian region in a multinational civil mission”.
This is a serious blow to Russia, because Finland since the days of the USSR it is linked by a relationship of trust. The situation in Transnistria is also complex. After the outbreak of war in the East, there can not leave the Russian military, as well as are unable to them to “help” others to arrive. Will not take vengeance if she is now in the Ukrainian Donbass? Because even though Ukraine is a special partner, designated under the NATO umbrella great she was not.
“Russia as seen by her behavior, counting on the internal opposition in Ukraine. Russia strongly plays up the worst case scenario, the destruction of our state mechanism”
Oleksandr Skipalsky, former Deputy head of SBU
“The forecast — business ungrateful. Military experience shows that even countries with dictatorial regimes, total intelligence can be wrong with the time war, says Oleksandr Skipalsky, former Deputy head of the SBU, President of the Union of officers of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General. — It is impossible to say how and when Putin will end the war. We have a recipe for strengthening our intelligence services. Because the common threat is, the whole world is concerned with the situation. But Russia, as evident in her behavior, counting on the internal opposition in Ukraine. Russia strongly plays up the worst case scenario, the destruction of our state mechanism. If the government neutralizes this aggression, then Putin did not remain once the use of military force”.
