The Ministry of Finance for the third time this year, appealed to the oil and gas accumulation Reserve Fund by withdrawing from it in August 390 billion by the closure of the Federal budget deficit. In just two-thirds this year from a “potbelly” taken to 1.17 trillion RUB and schedule of these exemptions is ahead of last year. In total, according to various estimates, the Reserve Fund this year will lose the 2.2-3 trillion rubles, which will bring him close to exhaustion and force the authorities to move in 2017 to spend the second sovereign wealth Fund — the National welfare.
On September 1, 2016, said yesterday the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Fund remained 2.09 trillion rubles ($32.2 billion the previous Month it was almost half a trillion more — of 2.56 trillion roubles. we will Remind, for the second year in a row since the beginning of the current crisis of state revenues, the money of the Reserve Fund are the main source of financing the Federal budget deficit. In 2015 from the Fund for it was collected 2.6 trillion rubles. this is yet to 1.17 trillion RUB, or three times for 390 billion. in April, may, and, as it became known today, in August.
Last year in the first eight months of withdrawal from the Reserve Fund was less, at 0.9 trillion As can be seen from the graph, then the bulk of the costs fell on the last third of the year, at a time when budget costs traditionally increase sharply. The fall and winter of 2015 foreign currency savings of the Fund were converted into rubles without pauses, on a monthly basis. Peak sales of “petrodollars” occurred in December, if the Fund was withdrawn 711 billion.
It is likely that this scenario will repeat itself this year. According to the law on budget for 2016 is total spending of the Reserve Fund should amount to 2.1 trillion rubles In July, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said already about 2.2 trillion (assuming execution plans large-scale privatization and an oil price of $40 per barrel). The Central Bank believes that the money to close budget holes will need even more. In his recent report “the conditions for the conduct of monetary policy, the Central Bank said it expects the budget deficit in 2016 in the amount of 3.5% for coverage in the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, will spend 2.4 trillion rubles from the Reserve Fund. We will remind that this year the regulator spoke about the macroeconomic effect of the additional influx of money into the banking system in early 2017, the Central Bank is waiting for the transition to a structural surplus of liquidity.
According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, at the end of this year in the Reserve Fund will total 900 billion rubles In early August, Deputy Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin explained that the case of the postponement of the privatization of “Rosneft” next year’s expenditures Reserve Fund can closely come nearer to a mark of 3 trillion rubles. This can reduce the Fund balance up to 300-400 billion rubles. In any case, next year to eliminate the gap between revenues and expenditures for the first time will have to spend another sovereign Fund — the national welfare Fund (NWF). On September 1, it was of 4.72 trillion rubles, or $72.7 billion (part of these funds, we will remind, invested in selected government infrastructure projects, as well as in preferred stocks saved in the last crisis, banks). It is expected that at the current rate of squandering the accumulations of past years of fat and save a situation with the internal borrowing of money NWF enough for another two years in 2017 and 2018.
