Did not have time to unwind virtual smoke after the fourth nuclear test North Korea, as South Korean experts have begun to talk about what’s going to happen five, and by now it’s been a few dates on which scouts or policy of Kazakhstan “assigned” to the North Korean nuclear fireworks.
7 April 2016, the Minister of defense Han Min GU announced that on March 15, Kim Jong-UN gave the order about preparation for conducting such a test. As explained by the head of the defense Ministry of Kazakhstan, the results of the inspection with the help of South Korean and American intelligence apparatus of North Korea’s nuclear test site in the village of Phung-ri County, kilju-gun province, pyongan show that for the test all ready, enough orders of the government. Tests can be carried out in the underground and overhead options.
17 APR Agency Yonhap reported a sharp intensification of movement of people and equipment on the ground Phung-ri and concluded from this that the testing will take place until the beginning of may.
April 18, about the noticed signs of preparations for testing said President Park Geun-Hye: “We are in a situation when we don’t know when North Korea will arrange a provocation in order to overcome their isolation and strengthen internal unity.”
Then there was a wave of publications about the fact that in this way will mark the army day which is celebrated in the DPRK on 25 April, but as we can see, it’s already may, and still no explosion. However, on 28 April, the President of the Republic of Korea Park Geun-Hye ordered the ministries and government agencies to be prepared for the DPRK’s another nuclear test.
However, on may 2, 2016 the American Internet portal 38 North, citing the results of the analysis of satellite images reported that the activity of the North on the ground in the village of Phung-ri province of pyongan cannot confidently be called a sign of preparations for the fifth nuclear test. Yes, the Northern tunnel, in which were conducted the fourth test, observed transport and a bunch of rocks. However, it is difficult to say what it involves. Around not see a single person. However, the website indicated that this time the North can do the same, as during a fourth nuclear test, which was conducted without prior notice.
What and why will be also actively projected. According to the employee of the U.S. Heritage Foundation’s Bruce Klingner, the test with high probability can be directed to testing a nuclear warhead with increased power. Professor of Korea University Kim sung-hwan believes that the North will learn the technology of miniaturization of a charge. Other experts believe that the case in the upcoming Congress of the WPK, the threshold of which Kim Jong-UN intends to strengthen its position and to announce the successful test of a miniaturized nuclear warheads of its own production. In this case, the fifth test may be the last stage before the adoption of nuclear weapons into service.
Some of the statements are striking. For example, the representative of the Ministry of defense of RK mun San Yoon has said that nuclear tests may be conducted either in the form of explosion under the ground or through the detonation of the warhead without the use of nuclear materials”. That is, even if from a technical point of view, the nuclear explosion will not, it is believed that in fact tyrannical regime held.
Naturally, all such statements are accompanied by the rhetoric “then we’ll show them, and”. As stated by the U.S. assistant Secretary of state for East Asian Affairs and Pacific region Daniel Russell, if the North will hold the fifth nuclear test, it will face tougher sanctions, which will ban on the export of labor. The new sanctions can be imposed by the UN Security Council, Washington unilaterally by a group of member States of the European Union and South-East Asia. In addition, the United States, the ROK and Japan can take measures related to the strengthening of missile defense systems and increase the region’s strategic weapons.
What can you say about this? On the one hand, we must remember that after each of the preceding tests, the American-South Korean propaganda immediately whirled news that the next nuclear bomb will be detonated DPRK in the near future, and there is a lot of evidence that speaks to this. In the end, expansionism and aggressiveness is an essential quality of the “country of darkness”. So talk about a nuclear test in the near future can be seen as a tribute to tradition.
On the other hand, the overall development of the situation on the Peninsula, indeed, somewhat increases the probability that the fifth trial will not happen in three years, and in more foreseeable future. A General aggravation of the situation, strengthening of the sanctions regime and the development of political trends on the Korean Peninsula lead to the fact that the North Korean leadership is strengthened in the view that the allies had two nuclear and missile programs. This means that northerners will throw more resources and efforts towards the development of its nuclear missile potential, which periodically will need to test – not only to show his teeth, but in order to test how truly we have come.
You can pay attention that not always one or the other memorable date was accompanied by a nuclear missile fireworks, although almost every time one or the other promoter was performed with the assumption that on this occasion the North Koreans surely something will launch. So any chance of meeting the upcoming Congress this way is, but it is pretty small. This low probability is based on both the limited resources of North Korea (they don’t have infinite amounts of uranium and plutonium) and on the fact that Kim Jong-UN understands to what extent it is possible to irritate Beijing and Moscow.
Otherwise, the next expected date of launch is scheduled for soon, so very soon our audience will get an object lesson of the extent to which South Korean predictions come true.
