Just recently, the majority of Belarusian mass media cheerfully reported that in September the Belarusian export “repeated the best result of the year” and was up 4% compared to the same period in 2015 to $ 2,769 billion (almost equal to the results of June). This news, apparently, was to inspire ordinary people and to give the opportunity for local officials to feel more confident on the “carpet from the President,” if not one “but” — the continuing economic crisis in the country, against which the current “growth” of exports seems to be mere coincidence.
In fact, today in Belarus, which is so fond of lately to nod in the direction of the Russian crisis, the problems do not become less, as evidenced by the statistics and actions of local officials. For example, if you access the data on exports of goods and services in January-September, it appears that in fact it declined by 12.5% compared to the same period last year. And these figures don’t end up characterize existing problem, as even greater fall was avoided only thanks to remaining afloat trade in services, which was even at 0.8% more than last year’s level and amounted to $ 4,986 billion While the balance of trade went into a deep disadvantage — $ 1.348 billion (last year — “only” minus $ 680,5 million) and the percentage ratio of the export of goods fell by 15.8%. In General foreign trade turnover of goods and services in Belarus for the first nine months of this year amounted to only $ 43,4295 billion, which is 11.5% less than last year. And here it must be remembered that exports fall the first year (last year the decline was 24.1%, or $ 32,883 billion), and so the situation is even more depressing than it is accepted to speak in Minsk.
However, local officials attributed the problems just a drop in the price of petroleum products and crude oil, the decline in prices and demand for potash fertilisers, as well as unfavorable pricing environment in the market of agricultural products and unfair policy of the Russian partners, who are trying to stop the penetration of “high-quality Belarusian products” to the Russian market. It turns out that if not all of the above, the forecast figures that were announced a year ago, would be performed. Recall that according to the official forecast, it was expected that Belarus in the first nine months of the year 2016 will come out of recession, while GDP growth will be 0.2%. However, it turned out that none of the promised governmental failed to implement: in all regions of the country in January-September the GDP remained in the red, exports are still falling and incomes are declining (it was assumed that real income will increase by 0.1% and in fact by August, they decreased by 7.1%). In a makeweight to everything, according to official data, during the first half of 2016, a quarter of commercial enterprises with state capital were unprofitable, and in some areas their share altogether amounted to one-third. And it is necessary to consider that the official statistics in Belarus, as a rule, far from reality, and therefore how really bad in the local economy, probably no one knows.
The current negative trends exist not only in Belarusian industry and agriculture, where a significant part of businesses, if not closed, it works two or three days a week, but in the financial sector. So, for the first nine months of the most systemic banks have earned less than last year. Even the largest state-owned Belarusbank, who in the years of the most severe crises never complained, has reduced its net profit by 16.7%. And the question of attracting additional Finance from the government of the Republic was also unable to decide whether the next tranche of $ 300 million from the Eurasian Fund for stabilization and development, which the Belarusian Finance Ministry was hoping to obtain back in October, again called into question. This means that the authorities of the Republic did not fulfill its obligations, and is unlikely to be able to count not only in money EFSD, but also the IMF, which, as you know, even more hard. Simply put, no money, and in the foreseeable future is not expected, and the possible placement of Eurobonds, if it takes place, is unlikely to bring the authorities at least some tangible effect.
Apparently, the whole tragedy of the current situation finally began to dawn on Belarusian officials, as evidenced by different facts. For example, for many was a revelation of the recent speech by the former assistant of Alexander Lukashenko on economic issues, and now the Ambassador of Belarus in China Kirill Rudy, speaking at the recent “Kastrychnitski economy forum” in Minsk. “Exiled” away from the center the economist spoke quite sharply against what is happening today in Belarus, noting that “the economy is falling today, certainly not because of reform but rather due to the fact that they are not” and “there are new problems caused by not external factors but our own actions”. And, most interestingly, his words were greeted with thunderous applause not only businessmen, but also senior government officials, among whom was the Deputy head of the presidential Administration Nikolai Snopkov, Deputy economy Minister Alexander Zaborovsky and Chairman of the Board of the national Bank Dmitry kalechits says.
However, many analysts see in all this no desire to change anything in the country, and only attempt to prepare the population for an even bigger crisis. This is indirectly confirmed by the latest actions of the local authorities. For example, the Ministry of labour and social protection of Belarus, said recently that, despite the advent of “optimization” excessive employment in Belarusian companies is 5.4%, while Recalling that the level of official unemployment in the country is small and far from the safety threshold (13.8 thousand, or 0.9% of the economically active population). Although it is known that last year about 200 thousand people were “persons without work, actively seeking employment and ready to start her”, and about 1.4 million Belarusians were marked in the statistics as “other able-bodied population of working age”, which for some reason was not officially employed (as a rule, migrant workers who have not found a class at home and working in Russia). The current year is unlikely to improve the picture, especially considering recent trends in the first half of the year, according to official statistics, Belarusian organizations took on the work 260,7 thousand people, and fired more than 340 thousand. While still more than half a million employees working in enterprises that are in a critical situation.
That the leadership of Belarus is preparing for a worsening of the situation, evidenced by the preparation of a draft Decree on increase of unemployment benefits to two categories of citizens. The first is those who are dismissed in connection with reduction of excess number of employees or liquidation of the enterprise (allowance in the amount of the minimum living wage or 174,52 Bel. RUB — about $ 90). Those who “for objective reasons, are out of work” (e.g., in connection with the termination of the contract), which will pay two times less.
If you add up all the above and a number of the facts of the current situation in Belarus, we will see a very sad picture — the local authorities are still not willing to change the structure of the economy, preferring to act with only one purpose — to prevent a social explosion in the country. Therefore, in Belarus is unlikely to be carried out structural reforms (in the best case make-up) will not happen sale of state property (most of which nobody needs), and management did not come new and ready to change frames (the current leadership is neither morally nor intellectually can not start the reformation of the state system). Moreover, based on recent trends, it is likely that Minsk may miss out on probably the only real chance to stop the crisis — cooperation in the framework of the Eurasian project, as to wait the final decision of the Belarusians to infinity in Moscow and Astana, no one will.
